Related papers: TS-Arena -- A Live Forecast Pre-Registration Platf…

Public inference benchmarks compare AI systems at the model and provider level, but the unit at which deployment decisions are actually made is the endpoint: the (provider, model, stock-keeping-unit) tuple at which a specific quantization,…

Spatio-Temporal (ST) data science, which includes sensing, managing, and mining large-scale data across space and time, is fundamental to understanding complex systems in domains such as urban computing, climate science, and intelligent…

In contemporary data-driven environments, the generation and processing of multivariate time series data is an omnipresent challenge, often complicated by time delays between different time series. These delays, originating from a multitude…

Time series foundation models (TSFMs) such as Lag-Llama, TimeGPT, Chronos, MOMENT, UniTS, and TimesFM have shown strong generalization and zero-shot capabilities for time series forecasting, anomaly detection, classification, and…

While machine learning has witnessed significant advancements, the emphasis has largely been on data acquisition and model creation. However, achieving a comprehensive assessment of machine learning solutions in real-world settings…

AI systems are notorious for their fragility; minor input changes can potentially cause major output swings. When such systems are deployed in critical areas like finance, the consequences of their uncertain behavior could be severe. In…

Time series forecasting (TSF) remains a challenging problem due to the intricate entanglement of intraperiod-fluctuations and interperiod-trends. While recent advances have attempted to reshape 1D sequences into 2D period-phase…

Large language models (LLMs) deployed in real-world agentic applications must be capable of replanning and adapting when mid-task disruptions invalidate their prior decisions. Existing dynamic benchmarks primarily measure whether LLMs can…

Large Language Models (LLMs) and Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) have ushered in a new era of AI capabilities, demonstrating near-human-level performance across diverse scenarios. While numerous benchmarks (e.g., MMLU) and…

Deep learning has achieved strong performance in Time Series Forecasting (TSF). However, we identify a critical representation paradox, termed Latent Chaos: models with accurate predictions often learn latent representations that are…

Forecasting anomalies (anomaly prediction) in multivariate time series from different real-world, dynamic, and complex systems is vital for preempting critical failures, leading to a substantial minimization in operational costs and human…

Time series forecasting (TSF) plays a critical role in decision-making for many real-world applications. Recently, LLM-based forecasters have made promising advancements. Despite their effectiveness, existing methods often lack explicit…

Accurate network-traffic forecasting enables proactive capacity planning and anomaly detection in Internet Service Provider (ISP) networks. Recent advances in time-series foundation models (TSFMs) have demonstrated strong zero-shot and…

Recently, deep learning has driven significant advancements in multivariate time series forecasting (MTSF) tasks. However, much of the current research in MTSF tends to evaluate models from a holistic perspective, which obscures the…

Foundation models have revolutionized artificial intelligence, setting new benchmarks in performance and enabling transformative capabilities across a wide range of vision and language tasks. However, despite the prevalence of…

Transformers have shown great power in time series forecasting due to their global-range modeling ability. However, their performance can degenerate terribly on non-stationary real-world data in which the joint distribution changes over…

Recent advances in deep learning have driven rapid progress in time series forecasting, yet many state-of-the-art models continue to struggle with robust performance in real-world applications, even when they achieve strong results on…

Time series forecasting (TSF) possesses great practical values in various fields, including power and energy, transportation, etc. TSF methods have been studied based on knowledge from classical statistics to modern deep learning. Yet, all…

Recent progress in foundation models has enabled strong zero-shot performance for time series forecasting. In this work, we show that such capabilities can also emerge from tabular foundation models. We introduce TabPFN-TS, a simple method…

Many real-world tasks are plagued by limitations on data: in some instances very little data is available and in others, data is protected by privacy enforcing regulations (e.g. GDPR). We consider limitations posed specifically on…