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We test various volatility models using the Bitcoin spot price series. Our models include HIST, EMA ARCH, GARCH, and EGARCH, models. Both of our in-sample-fit and out-of-sample-forecast results suggest that GARCH and EGARCH models perform…
The cryptocurrency options market is notable for its high volatility and lower liquidity compared to traditional markets. These characteristics introduce significant challenges to traditional option pricing methodologies. Addressing these…
A model is proposed for Bitcoin prices that takes into account market attention. Market attention, modeled by a mean-reverting Cox-Ingersoll-Ross processes, affects the volatility of Bitcoin returns, with some delay. The model is affine and…
Cryptocurrencies, especially Bitcoin (BTC), which comprise a new digital asset class, have drawn extraordinary worldwide attention. The characteristics of the cryptocurrency/BTC include a high level of speculation, extreme volatility and…
This paper evaluates the performance of classical time series models in forecasting Bitcoin prices, focusing on ARIMA, SARIMA, GARCH, and EGARCH. Daily price data from 2010 to 2020 were analyzed, with models trained on the first 90 percent…
This research addresses accurate option pricing by employing models beyond the traditional Black-Scholes framework. While Black-Scholes provides a closed-form solution, it is limited by assumptions of constant volatility, no dividends, and…
Cryptocurrencies and Bitcoin, in particular, are prone to wild swings resulting in frequent jumps in prices, making them historically popular for traders to speculate. A better understanding of these fluctuations can greatly benefit crypto…
In this paper, we consider pricing of European options and spread options for Hawkes-based model for the limit order book. We introduce multivariate Hawkes process and the multivariable general compound Hawkes process. Exponential…
This paper studies the forecasting ability of cryptocurrency time series. This study is about the four most capitalized cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin and Ripple. Different Bayesian models are compared, including models with…
The cryptocurrency market presents both significant investment opportunities and higher risks relative to traditional financial assets. This study examines the tail behavior of daily returns for two leading cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin and…
This work aims to analyse the predictability of price movements of cryptocurrencies on both hourly and daily data observed from January 2017 to January 2021, using deep learning algorithms. For our experiments, we used three sets of…
The paper investigates the performance of the European option price when the log asset price follows a rich class of Generalized Tempered Stable (GTS) distribution. The GTS distribution is an alternative to Normal distribution and…
In recent years, cryptocurrencies have attracted growing attention from both private investors and institutions. Among them, Bitcoin stands out for its impressive volatility and widespread influence. This paper explores the predictability…
This document analyzes price discovery in cryptocurrency markets by comparing centralized and decentralized exchanges, as well as spot and futures markets. The study focuses first on Ethereum (ETH) and then applies a similar approach to…
This paper conducts an extensive analysis of Bitcoin return series, with a primary focus on three volatility metrics: historical volatility (calculated as the sample standard deviation), forecasted volatility (derived from GARCH-type…
Digital currencies and cryptocurrencies have hesitantly started to penetrate the investors, and the next step will be the regulatory risk management framework. We examine the Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall properties for the major…
This study investigates enhancing option pricing by extending the Black-Scholes model to include stochastic volatility and interest rate variability within the Partial Differential Equation (PDE). The PDE is solved using the finite…
This paper proposes a hybrid credit risk model, in closed form, to price vulnerable options with stochastic volatility. The distinctive features of the model are threefold. First, both the underlying and the option issuer's assets follow…
First, a big data analysis of the transactions and smart contracts made on the Ethereum blockchain is performed, revealing interesting trends in motion. Next, these trends are compared with the public's interest in Ether and Bitcoin,…
Recent empirical evidence has highlighted the crucial role of jumps in both price and volatility within the cryptocurrency market. In this paper, we integrate price--volatility co-jumps and volatility short-term dependency into a coherent…