Related papers: The Procrustean Bed of Time Series: The Optimizati…

Debiased recommendation with a randomized dataset has shown very promising results in mitigating the system-induced biases. However, it still lacks more theoretical insights or an ideal optimization objective function compared with the…

In multivariable time series (MTS) forecasting, existing state-of-the-art deep learning approaches tend to focus on autoregressive formulations and often overlook the potential of using exogenous variables in enhancing the prediction of the…

Missing time-series data is a prevalent problem in many prescriptive analytics models in operations management, healthcare and finance. Imputation methods for time-series data are usually applied to the full panel data with the purpose of…

Bayesian optimization is a sequential method for minimizing objective functions that are expensive to evaluate and about which few assumptions can be made. By using all gathered data to train a Gaussian process model for the function and…

Evolutionary algorithms (EAs) are general-purpose problem solvers that usually perform an unbiased search. This is reasonable and desirable in a black-box scenario. For combinatorial optimization problems, often more knowledge about the…

Minimizing the Mean Squared Error (MSE) is a key objective in machine learning and is commonly used for imputing missing values. While this approach provides accurate point estimates, it introduces systematic biases in downstream analyses.…

This work proposes a Bayesian inference method for the reduced-order modeling of time-dependent systems. Informed by the structure of the governing equations, the task of learning a reduced-order model from data is posed as a Bayesian…

Stochastic User Equilibrium (SUE) models depict the perception differences in traffic assignment problems. According to the assumption of an unbounded perceived travel time distribution, the conventional SUE problems result in a positive…

Faced with problems of increasing complexity, recent research in Bayesian Optimisation (BO) has focused on adapting deep probabilistic models as flexible alternatives to Gaussian Processes (GPs). In a similar vein, this paper investigates…

Bayesian optimization is an approach to optimizing objective functions that take a long time (minutes or hours) to evaluate. It is best-suited for optimization over continuous domains of less than 20 dimensions, and tolerates stochastic…

We present multivariable extremum seeking (ES) designs that achieve unbiased convergence to the optimum. Two designs are introduced: one with exponential unbiased convergence (unbiased extremum seeker, uES) and the other with…

Several applications in time series forecasting require predicting multiple steps ahead. Despite the vast amount of literature in the topic, both classical and recent deep learning based approaches have mostly focused on minimising…

We propose an extrinsic Bayesian optimization (eBO) framework for general optimization problems on manifolds. Bayesian optimization algorithms build a surrogate of the objective function by employing Gaussian processes and quantify the…

A body of work has been done to automate machine learning algorithm to highlight the importance of model choice. Automating the process of choosing the best forecasting model and its corresponding parameters can result to improve a wide…

Memory-based meta-learning is a technique for approximating Bayes-optimal predictors. Under fairly general conditions, minimizing sequential prediction error, measured by the log loss, leads to implicit meta-learning. The goal of this work…

We consider the problem of sequentially optimizing a time-varying objective function using time-varying Bayesian optimization (TVBO). Current approaches to TVBO require prior knowledge of a constant rate of change to cope with stale data…

The predictive quality of machine learning models is typically measured in terms of their (approximate) expected prediction accuracy or the so-called Area Under the Curve (AUC). Minimizing the reciprocals of these measures are the goals of…

Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) are trained to optimize an entire distribution over their weights instead of a single set, having significant advantages in terms of, e.g., interpretability, multi-task learning, and calibration. Because of…

Time series forecasting faces two important but often overlooked challenges. Firstly, the inherent random noise in the time series labels sets a theoretical lower bound for the forecasting error, which is positively correlated with the…

We re-examine the traditional Mean-Squared Error (MSE) forecasting paradigm by formally integrating an accuracy-timeliness trade-off: accuracy is defined by MSE (or target correlation) and timeliness by advancement (or phase excess). While…