Related papers: Large Language Models as Discounted Bayesian Filte…
Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used as agents that interact with users and with the world. To do so successfully, LLMs must construct representations of the world and form probabilistic beliefs about them. To provide…
Large Language Models (LLMs) are often evaluated against ideals of perfect Bayesian inference, yet growing evidence suggests that their in-context reasoning exhibits systematic forgetting of past information. Rather than viewing this…
Large language models (LLMs) increasingly help people solve problems, from debugging code to repairing machinery. This process requires generating plausible hypotheses from partial descriptions, then updating them as more information…
Large language models (LLMs) exhibit probabilistic output characteristics, yet conventional evaluation frameworks rely on deterministic scalar metrics. This study introduces a Bayesian approach for LLM capability assessment that integrates…
In sequential decision-making (SDM) tasks, methods like reinforcement learning (RL) and heuristic search have made notable advances in specific cases. However, they often require extensive exploration and face challenges in generalizing…
Autoregressive large language models (LLMs) compress knowledge from their training data through next-token conditional distributions. This limits tractable querying of this knowledge to start-to-end autoregressive sampling. However, many…
Large language models (LLMs) have been shown to acquire sequence-level planning abilities during training, yet their planning behavior exhibited at inference time often appears short-sighted and inconsistent with these capabilities. We…
The specification of prior distributions is fundamental in Bayesian inference, yet it remains a significant bottleneck. The prior elicitation process is often a manual, subjective, and unscalable task. We propose a novel framework which…
A significant barrier to the widespread adoption of Bayesian inference is the specification of prior distributions and likelihoods, which often requires specialized statistical expertise. This paper investigates the feasibility of using a…
Large language models (LLMs) have been proposed as alternatives to human experts for estimating unknown quantities with associated uncertainty, a process known as Bayesian elicitation. We test this by asking eleven LLMs to estimate…
Predictive models often need to work with incomplete information in real-world tasks. Consequently, they must provide reliable probability or confidence estimation, especially in large-scale decision-making and planning tasks. Current large…
With the widespread adoption of Large Language Models (LLMs), the prevalence of iterative interactions among these models is anticipated to increase. Notably, recent advancements in multi-round self-improving methods allow LLMs to generate…
Advances in the general capabilities of large language models (LLMs) have led to their use for information retrieval, and as components in automated decision systems. A faithful representation of probabilistic reasoning in these models may…
Large language models (LLMs) exhibit the ability to generalize given few-shot examples in their input prompt, an emergent capability known as in-context learning (ICL). We investigate whether LLMs use ICL to perform structured reasoning in…
Large Language Models (LLMs) often suffer from overconfidence during inference, particularly when adapted to downstream domain-specific tasks with limited data. Previous work addresses this issue by employing approximate Bayesian estimation…
The paper underscores the significance of Large Language Models (LLMs) in reshaping recommender systems, attributing their value to unique reasoning abilities absent in traditional recommenders. Unlike conventional systems lacking direct…
Large Language Models (LLMs) possess general world knowledge but often struggle to generate precise predictions in structured, domain-specific contexts such as simulations. These limitations arise from their inability to ground their broad,…
In recent years, pre-trained large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable efficiency in achieving an inference-time few-shot learning capability known as in-context learning. However, existing literature has highlighted the…
We present a theory-first framework that interprets inference-time adaptation in large language models (LLMs) as online Bayesian state estimation. Rather than modeling rapid adaptation as implicit optimization or meta-learning, we formulate…
Large language models (LLMs) are revolutionizing every aspect of society. They are increasingly used in problem-solving tasks to substitute human assessment and reasoning. LLMs are trained on what humans write and are thus exposed to human…