Related papers: Analysing Skill Predominance in Generalized Fantas…
In this paper, we study the problem of learning the skill distribution of a population of agents from observations of pairwise games in a tournament. These games are played among randomly drawn agents from the population. The agents in our…
Professional team sports provide an excellent domain for studying the dynamics of social competitions. These games are constructed with simple, well-defined rules and payoffs that admit a high-dimensional set of possible actions and…
We introduce a quantitative framework for separating skill and chance in games by modeling them as complementary sources of control over stochastic decision trees. We define the Skill-Luck Index S(G) in [-1, 1] by decomposing game outcomes…
Predicting the outcome of sports events is a hard task. We quantify this difficulty with a coefficient that measures the distance between the observed final results of sports leagues and idealized perfectly balanced competitions in terms of…
We study the effects of randomness on competitions based on an elementary random process in which there is a finite probability that a weaker team upsets a stronger team. We apply this model to sports leagues and sports tournaments, and…
Fantasy Premier League engages the football community in selecting the Premier League players who will perform best from gameweek to gameweek. Access to accurate performance forecasts gives participants an edge over competitors by guiding…
Given a fixed budget for player salaries, what is the distribution of salaries of the top scoring teams? We investigated this question using the wealth of data available from fantasy premier league football (soccer). Using the players' data…
We present a new way of estimation of the role of chance in achieving success, by comparing the empirical data from 100-meter dash competitions (one of the sports disciplines with the most stringent controls of external randomness), with…
League of Legends (LoL) is the most widely played multiplayer online battle arena (MOBA) game in the world. An important aspect of LoL is competitive ranked play, which utilizes a skill-based matchmaking system to form fair teams. However,…
There seems to be an upper limit to predicting the outcome of matches in (semi-)professional sports. Recent work has proposed that this is due to chance and attempts have been made to simulate the distribution of win percentages to identify…
Competition is a primary driver of player satisfaction and engagement in multiplayer online games. Traditional matchmaking systems aim at creating matches involving teams of similar aggregated individual skill levels, such as Elo score or…
Competitive balance is the subject of much interest in the sports analytics literature and beyond. In this paper, we develop a statistical network model based on an extension of the stochastic block model to assess the balance between teams…
The paper aims to investigate the degree of cognitive skills required for success in online versions of the popular card game rummy and poker. The study focuses on analyzing the impact of experience and learnable skills on success in the…
League competition is investigated using random processes and scaling techniques. In our model, a weak team can upset a strong team with a fixed probability. Teams play an equal number of head-to-head matches and the team with the largest…
A new formalism for analyzing the progression of cricket game using Stochastic differential equation (SDE) is introduced. This theory enables a quantitative way of representing every team using three key variables which have physical…
We investigate multi-round team competitions between two teams, where each team selects one of its players simultaneously in each round and each player can play at most once. The competition defines an extensive-form game with perfect…
In daily fantasy sports, players enter into "contests" where they compete against each other by building teams of athletes that score fantasy points based on what actually occurs in a real-life sports match. For any given sports match,…
In the game of cricket, the result of coin toss is assumed to be one of the determinants of match outcome. The decision to bat first after winning the toss is often taken to make the best use of superior pitch conditions and set a big…
Cricket is a game played between two teams which consists of eleven players each. Nowadays cricket game is becoming more and more popular in Bangladesh and other South Asian Countries. Before a match people are very enthusiastic about team…
We introduce a compact probabilistic model for two-player and two-team (four-player) squash matches, along with a practical skill-comparison rule derived from point-scoring probabilities. Using recorded shot types and court locations, we…