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Ascertaining causal direction from observational data is a fundamental challenge in scientific inquiry. Of particular interest is the problem of covariate-adjusted bivariate causal discovery, i.e., determining the causal direction between X…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-30 Soumik Purkayastha , Peter X. -K. Song

Causal or unconfounded descriptive comparisons between multiple groups are common in observational studies. Motivated from a racial disparity study in health services research, we propose a unified propensity score weighting framework, the…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-07-10 Fan Li , Fan Li

A random forest prediction can be computed by the scalar product of the labels of the training examples and a set of weights that are determined by the leafs of the forest into which the test object falls; each prediction can hence be…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-27 Henrik Boström

We consider a longitudinal data structure consisting of baseline covariates, time-varying treatment variables, intermediate time-dependent covariates, and a possibly time dependent outcome. Previous studies have shown that estimating the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-10-09 Linh Tran , Maya Petersen , Joshua Schwab , Mark J van der Laan

We propose generalized additive partial linear models for complex data which allow one to capture nonlinear patterns of some covariates, in the presence of linear components. The proposed method improves estimation efficiency and increases…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-05-26 Li Wang , Lan Xue , Annie Qu , Hua Liang

To investigate causal mechanisms, causal mediation analysis decomposes the total treatment effect into the natural direct and indirect effects. This paper examines the estimation of the direct and indirect effects in a general treatment…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-01-24 Lukang Huang , Wei Huang , Oliver Linton , Zheng Zhang

Estimating causal effects from observational data informs us about which factors are important in an autonomous system, and enables us to take better decisions. This is important because it has applications in selecting a treatment in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-29 Plabon Shaha , Talha Islam Zadid , Ismat Rahman , Md. Mosaddek Khan

Statistical matching methods are widely used in the social and health sciences to estimate causal effects using observational data. Often the objective is to find comparable groups with similar covariate distributions in a dataset, with the…

Applications · Statistics 2021-01-19 Felix Bestehorn , Maike Bestehorn , Christian Kirches

This paper introduces tools for assessing the sensitivity, to unobserved confounding, of a common estimator of the causal effect of a treatment on an outcome that employs weights: the weighted linear regression of the outcome on the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-06 Leonard Wainstein , Chad Hazlett

The propensity score is a common tool for estimating the causal effect of a binary treatment in observational data. In this setting, matching, subclassification, imputation, or inverse probability weighting on the propensity score can…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-01-03 Michael J Lopez , Roee Gutman

Causal mediation analysis has historically been limited in two important ways: (i) a focus has traditionally been placed on binary treatments and static interventions, and (ii) direct and indirect effect decompositions have been pursued…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-01-13 Nima S. Hejazi , Kara E. Rudolph , Mark J. van der Laan , Iván Díaz

Identifying causal treatment (or exposure) effects in observational studies requires the data to satisfy the unconfoundedness assumption which is not testable using the observed data. With sensitivity analysis, one can determine how the…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-01-31 Yang Ou , Lu Tang , Chung-Chou H. Chang

Survival outcomes are common in comparative effectiveness studies and require unique handling because they are usually incompletely observed due to right-censoring. A ``once for all'' approach for causal inference with survival outcomes…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-21 Shuxi Zeng , Fan Li , Liangyuan Hu , Fan Li

This paper investigates the integration of gradient boosted decision trees and varying coefficient models. We introduce the tree boosted varying coefficient framework which justifies the implementation of decision tree boosting as the…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-04-03 Yichen Zhou , Giles Hooker

Randomized controlled trials play an important role in how Internet companies predict the impact of policy decisions and product changes. In these `digital experiments', different units (people, devices, products) respond differently to the…

Applications · Statistics 2015-12-21 Matt Taddy , Matt Gardner , Liyun Chen , David Draper

We study the problem of observational causal inference with continuous treatments in the framework of inverse propensity-score weighting. To obtain stable weights, we design a new algorithm based on entropy balancing that learns weights to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-12 Mohammad Taha Bahadori , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen , David E. Heckerman

Quantile treatment effects (QTEs) can characterize the potentially heterogeneous causal effect of a treatment on different points of the entire outcome distribution. Propensity score (PS) methods are commonly employed for estimating QTEs in…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-08-15 Yahang Liu , Kecheng Wei , Chen Huang , Yongfu Yu , Guoyou Qin

Learning individual-level causal effects from observational data, such as inferring the most effective medication for a specific patient, is a problem of growing importance for policy makers. The most important aspect of inferring causal…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-11-07 Christos Louizos , Uri Shalit , Joris Mooij , David Sontag , Richard Zemel , Max Welling

In this paper we study the problems of estimating heterogeneity in causal effects in experimental or observational studies and conducting inference about the magnitude of the differences in treatment effects across subsets of the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-06-08 Susan Athey , Guido Imbens

Principal stratification analysis evaluates how causal effects of a treatment on a primary outcome vary across strata of units defined by their treatment effect on some intermediate quantity. This endeavor is substantially challenged when…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-21 Chanmin Kim , Corwin Zigler
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