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In recent years, Large Language Models (LLMs) have become fundamental to a broad spectrum of artificial intelligence applications. As the use of LLMs expands, precisely estimating the uncertainty in their predictions has become crucial.…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-10-29 Mohammad Beigi , Sijia Wang , Ying Shen , Zihao Lin , Adithya Kulkarni , Jianfeng He , Feng Chen , Ming Jin , Jin-Hee Cho , Dawei Zhou , Chang-Tien Lu , Lifu Huang

Nonparametric estimation of a mixing distribution based on data coming from a mixture model is a challenging problem. Beyond estimation, there is interest in uncertainty quantification, e.g., confidence intervals for features of the mixing…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-06-14 Vaidehi Dixit , Ryan Martin

Measures of uncertainty and divergence are introduced for interval-valued probability distributions and are shown to have desirable mathematical properties. A maximum uncertainty inference procedure for marginal interval distributions is…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-04-08 Michael Pittarelli

The recent convergence of pervasive computing and machine learning has given rise to numerous services, impacting almost all areas of economic and social activity. However, the use of AI techniques precludes certain standard software…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2025-12-11 Vladimir Balditsyn , Philippe Lalanda , German Vega , Stéphanie Chollet

Explainable AI methods facilitate the understanding of model behaviour, yet, small, imperceptible perturbations to inputs can vastly distort explanations. As these explanations are typically evaluated holistically, before model deployment,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-05 Sara Vera Marjanović , Isabelle Augenstein , Christina Lioma

We congratulate the authors on their exciting paper, which introduces a novel idea for assessing the estimation bias in causal estimates. Doubly robust estimators are now part of the standard set of tools in causal inference, but a typical…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-06-18 Edward H. Kennedy , Sivaraman Balakrishnan , Larry A. Wasserman

Modern machine learning methods including deep learning have achieved great success in predictive accuracy for supervised learning tasks, but may still fall short in giving useful estimates of their predictive {\em uncertainty}. Quantifying…

Interpretability analysis methods for artificial intelligence models, such as LIME and SHAP, are widely used, though they primarily serve as post-model for analyzing model outputs. While it is commonly believed that the transparency and…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-02-28 Yan Zhang , Lin Chen , Yixiang Tian

Measurement error in count data is common but underexplored in the literature, particularly in contexts where observed scores are bounded and arise from discrete scoring processes. Motivated by applications in oral reading fluency…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-26 Yuqiu Yang , Christina Vu , Cornelis J. Potgieter , Xinlei Wang , Akihito Kamata

Previous work has highlighted that existing post-hoc explanation methods exhibit disparities in explanation fidelity (across 'race' and 'gender' as sensitive attributes), and while a large body of work focuses on mitigating these issues at…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-29 Vishwali Mhasawade , Salman Rahman , Zoe Haskell-Craig , Rumi Chunara

Local Interpretable Model-Agnostic Explanations (LIME) is a popular method to perform interpretability of any kind of Machine Learning (ML) model. It explains one ML prediction at a time, by learning a simple linear model around the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-09 Giorgio Visani , Enrico Bagli , Federico Chesani

Missing data are ubiquitous in the era of big data and, if inadequately handled, are known to lead to biased findings and have deleterious impact on data-driven decision makings. To mitigate its impact, many missing value imputation methods…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-26 Yiliang Zhang , Qi Long

Many recent methods for unsupervised or self-supervised representation learning train feature extractors by maximizing an estimate of the mutual information (MI) between different views of the data. This comes with several immediate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-01-24 Michael Tschannen , Josip Djolonga , Paul K. Rubenstein , Sylvain Gelly , Mario Lucic

We present and compare multiple imputation methods for multilevel continuous and binary data where variables are systematically and sporadically missing. The methods are compared from a theoretical point of view and through an extensive…

Multivariate meta-analysis is gaining prominence in evidence synthesis research because it enables simultaneous synthesis of multiple correlated outcome data, and random-effects models have generally been used for addressing between-studies…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-07-14 Hisashi Noma , Kengo Nagashima , Toshi A. Furukawa

Machine learning has shown much promise in helping improve the quality of medical, legal, and financial decision-making. In these applications, machine learning models must satisfy two important criteria: (i) they must be causal, since the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-12 Carolyn Kim , Osbert Bastani

Methods for understanding the decisions of and mechanisms underlying deep neural networks (DNNs) typically rely on building intuition by emphasizing sensory or semantic features of individual examples. For instance, methods aim to visualize…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2020-10-26 Matthew L. Leavitt , Ari Morcos

In many macroeconomic applications, confidence intervals for impulse responses are constructed by estimating VAR models in levels - ignoring cointegration rank uncertainty. We investigate the consequences of ignoring this uncertainty. We…

Econometrics · Economics 2019-10-08 Lenard Lieb , Stephan Smeekes

In recent years, word embeddings have been widely used to measure biases in texts. Even if they have proven to be effective in detecting a wide variety of biases, metrics based on word embeddings lack transparency and interpretability. We…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-07-19 Francisco Valentini , Germán Rosati , Damián Blasi , Diego Fernandez Slezak , Edgar Altszyler

Credal sets, i.e., closed convex sets of probability measures, provide a natural framework to represent aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty in machine learning. Yet how to quantify these two types of uncertainty for a given credal set,…