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We introduce an interpretable-by-design method, optimized model-analog, that integrates deep learning with model-analog forecasting which generates forecasts from similar initial climate states in a repository of model simulations. This…

Quantifying uncertainty in weather forecasts is critical, especially for predicting extreme weather events. This is typically accomplished with ensemble prediction systems, which consist of many perturbed numerical weather simulations, or…

Uncertainty-aware deep learning (DL) models recently gained attention in fault diagnosis as a way to promote the reliable detection of faults when out-of-distribution (OOD) data arise from unseen faults (epistemic uncertainty) or the…

Deep neural networks (NNs) are powerful black box predictors that have recently achieved impressive performance on a wide spectrum of tasks. Quantifying predictive uncertainty in NNs is a challenging and yet unsolved problem. Bayesian NNs,…

Uncertainty quantification in automated image analysis is highly desired in many applications. Typically, machine learning models in classification or segmentation are only developed to provide binary answers; however, quantifying the…

This work demonstrates the ability to produce readily interpretable statistical metrics for model fit, fixed effects covariance coefficients, and prediction confidence. Importantly, this work compares 4 suitable and commonly applied…

Deep ensembles can be considered as the current state-of-the-art for uncertainty quantification in deep learning. While the approach was originally proposed as a non-Bayesian technique, arguments supporting its Bayesian footing have been…

Image classification with neural networks (NNs) is widely used in industrial processes, situations where the model likely encounters unknown objects during deployment, i.e., out-of-distribution (OOD) data. Worryingly, NNs tend to make…

We present a comparison of methods for uncertainty quantification (UQ) in deep learning algorithms in the context of a simple physical system. Three of the most common uncertainty quantification methods - Bayesian Neural Networks (BNN),…

Brain vessel segmentation of MR scans is a critical step in the diagnosis of cerebrovascular diseases. Due to the fine vessel structure, manual vessel segmentation is time consuming. Therefore, automatic deep learning (DL) based…

With the advancement of GPS, remote sensing, and computational simulations, large amounts of geospatial and spatiotemporal data are being collected at an increasing speed. Such emerging spatiotemporal big data assets, together with the…

We show that ensembles of deep neural networks, called deep ensembles, can be used to perform quantum parameter estimation while also providing a means for quantifying uncertainty in parameter estimates, which is a key advantage of using…

Techniques from artificial intelligence and machine learning are increasingly employed in nuclear theory, however, the uncertainties that arise from the complex parameter manifold encoded by the neural networks are often overlooked.…

Air pollution is a global hazard, and as of 2023, 94\% of the world's population is exposed to unsafe pollution levels. Surface Ozone (O3), an important pollutant, and the drivers of its trends are difficult to model, and traditional…

Obtaining accurate estimates of uncertainty in climate scenarios often requires generating large ensembles of high-resolution climate simulations, a computationally expensive and memory intensive process. To address this challenge, we train…

Producing high-quality forecasts of key climate variables, such as temperature and precipitation, on subseasonal time scales has long been a gap in operational forecasting. This study explores an application of machine learning (ML) models…

The El Ni{~n}o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exerts profound influence on global climate variability, yet its prediction remains a grand challenge. Recent advances in deep learning have significantly improved forecasting skill, but the…

The introduction of the Segment Anything Model (SAM) has paved the way for numerous semantic segmentation applications. For several tasks, quantifying the uncertainty of SAM is of particular interest. However, the ambiguous nature of the…

Climate models are generally calibrated manually by comparing selected climate statistics, such as the global top-of-atmosphere energy balance, to observations. The manual tuning only targets a limited subset of observational data and…

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is a promising approach to improve model reliability, yet quantifying the uncertainty of Large Language Models (LLMs) is non-trivial. In this work, we establish a connection between the uncertainty of LLMs…