Related papers: Efficient Monte Carlo sampling of metastable syste…
Monte Carlo experiments produce samples in order to estimate features of a given distribution. However, simultaneous estimation of means and quantiles has received little attention, despite being common practice. In this setting we…
The recently-introduced self-learning Monte Carlo method is a general-purpose numerical method that speeds up Monte Carlo simulations by training an effective model to propose uncorrelated configurations in the Markov chain. We implement…
Recent work has suggested using Monte Carlo methods based on piecewise deterministic Markov processes (PDMPs) to sample from target distributions of interest. PDMPs are non-reversible continuous-time processes endowed with momentum, and…
We describe an embarrassingly parallel, anytime Monte Carlo method for likelihood-free models. The algorithm starts with the view that the stochasticity of the pseudo-samples generated by the simulator can be controlled externally by a…
Modern macroeconometrics often relies on time series models for which it is time-consuming to evaluate the likelihood function. We demonstrate how Bayesian computations for such models can be drastically accelerated by reweighting and…
An effective approach for sampling from unnormalized densities is based on the idea of gradually transporting samples from an easy prior to the complicated target distribution. Two popular methods are (1) Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC), where…
This paper concerns the use of sequential Monte Carlo methods (SMC) for smoothing in general state space models. A well-known problem when applying the standard SMC technique in the smoothing mode is that the resampling mechanism introduces…
We introduce shielded Langevin Monte Carlo (LMC), a constrained sampler inspired by navigation functions, capable of sampling from unnormalized target distributions defined over punctured supports. In other words, this approach samples from…
Sequential Monte Carlo Squared (SMC$^2$) is a Bayesian method which can infer the states and parameters of non-linear, non-Gaussian state-space models. The standard random-walk proposal in SMC$^2$ faces challenges, particularly with…
We show that a probabilistic version of the classical forward-stepwise variable inclusion procedure can serve as a general data-augmentation scheme for model space distributions in (generalized) linear models. This latent variable…
Markov-chain Monte Carlo sampling has become a standard technique for exploring the posterior distribution of cosmological parameters constrained by observations of CMB anisotropies. Given an infinite amount of time, any MCMC sampler will…
The basic problem in equilibrium statistical mechanics is to compute phase space average, in which Monte Carlo method plays a very important role. We begin with a review of nonlocal algorithms for Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation in…
We present a Hamiltonian Monte Carlo algorithm to sample from multivariate Gaussian distributions in which the target space is constrained by linear and quadratic inequalities or products thereof. The Hamiltonian equations of motion can be…
Sequential Monte Carlo methods, also known as particle methods, are a popular set of techniques for approximating high-dimensional probability distributions and their normalizing constants. These methods have found numerous applications in…
While kinetic Monte Carlo simulations can provide long-time simulations of the dynamics of physical and chemical systems, it is not yet possible in general to identify the inverse Monte Carlo attempt frequency with a physical timescale.…
We propose a hybrid Monte Carlo (HMC) technique applicable to high-dimensional multivariate normal distributions that effectively samples along chaotic trajectories. The method is predicated on the freedom of choice of the HMC momentum…
Importance sampling is a Monte Carlo method which designs estimators of expectations under a target distribution using weighted samples from a proposal distribution. When the target distribution is complex, such as multimodal distributions…
Conditional Monte Carlo or pre-integration is a powerful tool for reducing variance and improving the regularity of integrands when using Monte Carlo and quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) methods. To select the variable to pre-integrate, one must…
Control variates can be a powerful tool to reduce the variance of Monte Carlo estimators, but constructing effective control variates can be challenging when the number of samples is small. In this paper, we show that when a large number of…
We propose a new computationally efficient sampling scheme for Bayesian inference involving high dimensional probability distributions. Our method maps the original parameter space into a low-dimensional latent space, explores the latent…