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It is often useful in multivariate time series analysis to determine statistical causal relations between different time series. Granger causality is a fundamental measure for this purpose. Yet the traditional pairwise approach to Granger…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2007-05-23 Yonghong Chen , Steven L. Bressler , Mingzhou Ding

Generative Bayesian Computation (GBC) methods are developed for Casual Inference. Generative methods are simulation-based methods that use a large training dataset to represent posterior distributions as a map (a.k.a. optimal transport) to…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-25 Maria Nareklishvili , Nicholas Polson , Vadim Sokolov

Generalized Polynomial Chaos (gPC) expansions are well established for forward uncertainty propagation in many application areas. Although the associated computational effort may be reduced in comparison to Monte Carlo techniques, for…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2023-07-26 Niklas Georg , Ulrich Römer

We consider the use of Gaussian process (GP) priors for solving inverse problems in a Bayesian framework. As is well known, the computational complexity of GPs scales cubically in the number of datapoints. We here show that in the context…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-09-01 Cédric Travelletti , David Ginsbourger , Niklas Linde

In this work, we study the class of stochastic process that generalizes the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes, hereafter called by \emph{Generalized Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Type Process} and denoted by GOU type process. We consider them driven by the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-08-17 J. Stein , S. R. C. Lopes , A. V. Medino

By exact projection in phase space we derive the generalized Langevin equation (GLE) for time-filtered observables. We employ a general convolution filter that directly acts on arbitrary phase-space observables and can involve low-pass,…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2024-09-20 Roland R. Netz

Identifying the causal structure of systems with multiple dynamic elements is critical to several scientific disciplines. The conventional approach is to conduct statistical tests of causality, for example with Granger Causality, between…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-03-22 Jacek P. Dmochowski

In recent years there have been many proposals as flexible alternatives to Gaussian based continuous time stochastic volatility models. A great deal of these models employ positive L\'evy processes. Among these are the attractive…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Lancelot F. James

This paper considers joint learning of multiple sparse Granger graphical models to discover underlying common and differential Granger causality (GC) structures across multiple time series. This can be applied to drawing group-level brain…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-05-25 Parinthorn Manomaisaowapak , Jitkomut Songsiri

The recent deep generative models for static graphs that are now being actively developed have achieved significant success in areas such as molecule design. However, many real-world problems involve temporal graphs whose topology and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-09 Liming Zhang , Liang Zhao , Shan Qin , Dieter Pfoser

Stochastic Gradient Langevin Dynamics (SGLD) ensures strong guarantees with regards to convergence in measure for sampling log-concave posterior distributions by adding noise to stochastic gradient iterates. Given the size of many practical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-15 Vyacheslav Kungurtsev , Bapi Chatterjee , Dan Alistarh

Modeling a high-dimensional Hamiltonian system in reduced dimensions with respect to coarse-grained (CG) variables can greatly reduce computational cost and enable efficient bottom-up prediction of main features of the system for many…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2021-04-09 Shu Wang , Zhan Ma , Wenxiao Pan

Granger causality is a fundamental technique for causal inference in time series data, commonly used in the social and biological sciences. Typical operationalizations of Granger causality make a strong assumption that every time point of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-05-11 Chainarong Amornbunchornvej , Elena Zheleva , Tanya Berger-Wolf

While most classical approaches to Granger causality detection assume linear dynamics, many interactions in real-world applications, like neuroscience and genomics, are inherently nonlinear. In these cases, using linear models may lead to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-03-16 Alex Tank , Ian Covert , Nicholas Foti , Ali Shojaie , Emily Fox

We introduce graph gamma process (GGP) linear dynamical systems to model real-valued multivariate time series. For temporal pattern discovery, the latent representation under the model is used to decompose the time series into a…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-07-28 Rahi Kalantari , Mingyuan Zhou

We introduce a rigorous mathematical framework for Granger causality in extremes, designed to identify causal links from extreme events in time series. Granger causality plays a pivotal role in uncovering directional relationships among…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-10-21 Juraj Bodik , Olivier C. Pasche

Starting with a micropolar formulation, known to account for nonlocal microstructural effects at the continuum level, a generalized Langevin equation (GLE) for a particle, describing the predominant motion of a localized region through a…

Soft Condensed Matter · Physics 2015-09-30 Saikat Sarkar , Shubhankar Roy Chowdhury , Debasish Roy , Ram Mohan Vasu

Trivariate Granger causality analysis seeks to distinguish between "true" causality and "spurious" causality results from the topology of the system. However, this analysis is sensitive both to the choice of test criteria and the presence…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-04-18 Leo Carlos-Sandberg , Christopher D. Clack

Cross-sectional studies are widely prevalent since they are more feasible to conduct compared to longitudinal studies. However, cross-sectional data lack the temporal information required to study the evolution of the underlying processes.…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2021-02-24 Pritha Dutta , Rick Quax , Loes Crielaard , Peter M. A. Sloot

With the advancement of neural networks, diverse methods for neural Granger causality have emerged, which demonstrate proficiency in handling complex data, and nonlinear relationships. However, the existing framework of neural Granger…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-15 Wanqi Zhou , Shuanghao Bai , Shujian Yu , Qibin Zhao , Badong Chen
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