Related papers: Multi-Fidelity Delayed Acceptance: hierarchical MC…
Stochastic reaction network models are often used to explain and predict the dynamics of gene regulation in single cells. These models usually involve several parameters, such as the kinetic rates of chemical reactions, that are not…
This study is devoted to the construction of a multifidelity Monte Carlo (MFMC) method for the uncertainty quantification of a nonlocal, non-mass-conserving Cahn-Hilliard model for phase transitions with an obstacle potential. We are…
Due to the need for robust uncertainty quantification, Bayesian neural learning has gained attention in the era of deep learning and big data. Markov Chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) methods typically implement Bayesian inference which faces…
We address the challenge of quantifying Bayesian uncertainty and incorporating it in offline use cases of finite-state Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) with unknown dynamics. Our approach provides a principled method to disentangle…
In a Bayesian setting, inverse problems and uncertainty quantification (UQ) - the propagation of uncertainty through a computational (forward) model - are strongly connected. In the form of conditional expectation the Bayesian update…
Uncertainty of decisions in safety-critical engineering applications can be estimated on the basis of the Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique of averaging over decision models. The use of decision tree (DT) models assists…
In a Bayesian setting, inverse problems and uncertainty quantification (UQ) --- the propagation of uncertainty through a computational (forward) model --- are strongly connected. In the form of conditional expectation the Bayesian update…
Quantifying uncertainty associated with the microstructure variation of a material can be a computationally daunting task, especially when dealing with advanced constitutive models and fine mesh resolutions in the crystal plasticity finite…
Multi-fidelity methods are prominently used when cheaply-obtained, but possibly biased and noisy, observations must be effectively combined with limited or expensive true data in order to construct reliable models. This arises in both…
Slice sampling is a well-established Markov chain Monte Carlo method for (approximate) sampling of target distributions which are only known up to a normalizing constant. The method is based on choosing a new state on a slice, i.e., a…
Hierarchical models in Bayesian inverse problems are characterized by an assumed prior probability distribution for the unknown state and measurement error precision, and hyper-priors for the prior parameters. Combining these probability…
We develop a multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) framework for uncertainty quantification with Monte Carlo dropout. Treating dropout masks as a source of epistemic randomness, we define a fidelity hierarchy by the number of stochastic forward…
Monte Carlo integration becomes prohibitively expensive when each sample requires a high-fidelity model evaluation. Multi-fidelity uncertainty quantification methods mitigate this by combining estimators from high- and low-fidelity models,…
Many scientific and engineering problems require to perform Bayesian inferences in function spaces, in which the unknowns are of infinite dimension. In such problems, many standard Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms become arbitrary…
We consider the problem of Bayesian inference for changepoints where the number and position of the changepoints are both unknown. In particular, we consider product partition models where it is possible to integrate out model parameters…
Over decades, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods have been widely studied, with a typical application being the quantification of posterior uncertainties in Bayesian system identification of structural dynamic models. To address the…
Importance sampling (IS) is commonly used for cross validation (CV) in Bayesian models, because it only involves reweighting existing posterior draws without needing to re-estimate the model by re-running Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC).…
Functional mixed models are widely useful for regression analysis with dependent functional data, including longitudinal functional data with scalar predictors. However, existing algorithms for Bayesian inference with these models only…
While MCMC methods have become a main work-horse for Bayesian inference, scaling them to large distributed datasets is still a challenge. Embarrassingly parallel MCMC strategies take a divide-and-conquer stance to achieve this by writing…
A family of semi-intrusive uncertainty propagation (UP) methods for multiscale models is introduced. The methods are semi-intrusive in the sense that inspection of the model is limited up to the level of the single scale systems, and…