Related papers: Multivariate Uncertainty Quantification with Tomog…
Due to the dynamic nature of financial markets, maintaining models that produce precise predictions over time is difficult. Often the goal isn't just point prediction but determining uncertainty. Quantifying uncertainty, especially the…
Quantile regression (QR) is a statistical tool for distribution-free estimation of conditional quantiles of a target variable given explanatory features. QR is limited by the assumption that the target distribution is univariate and defined…
We propose Multivariate Quantile Function Forecaster (MQF$^2$), a global probabilistic forecasting method constructed using a multivariate quantile function and investigate its application to multi-horizon forecasting. Prior approaches are…
We develop a simple and unified framework for nonlinear variable selection that incorporates uncertainty in the prediction function and is compatible with a wide range of machine learning models (e.g., tree ensembles, kernel methods, neural…
Despite attractive theoretical guarantees and practical successes, Predictive Interval (PI) given by Conformal Prediction (CP) may not reflect the uncertainty of a given model. This limitation arises from CP methods using a constant…
In this article, we present a novel approach to multivariate probabilistic forecasting. Our approach is based on an extension of single-output quantile regression (QR) to multivariate-targets, called quantile surfaces (QS). QS uses a simple…
The Distributional Random Forest (DRF) is a recently introduced Random Forest algorithm to estimate multivariate conditional distributions. Due to its general estimation procedure, it can be employed to estimate a wide range of targets such…
Sufficiently modeling the correlations among variables (aka channels) is crucial for achieving accurate multivariate time series forecasting (MTSF). In this paper, we propose a novel technique called Temporal Query (TQ) to more effectively…
Data-driven turbulence modelling approaches are gaining increasing interest from the CFD community. However, the introduction of a machine learning (ML) model introduces a new source of uncertainty, the ML model itself. Quantification of…
Conformalized Quantile Regression (CQR) is a recently proposed method for constructing prediction intervals for a response $Y$ given covariates $X$, without making distributional assumptions. However, existing constructions of CQR can be…
In machine learning, uncertainty quantification helps assess the reliability of model predictions, which is important in high-stakes scenarios. Traditional approaches often emphasize predictive accuracy, but there is a growing focus on…
Quantile Regression (QR) provides a way to approximate a single conditional quantile. To have a more informative description of the conditional distribution, QR can be merged with deep learning techniques to simultaneously estimate multiple…
Tree-based ensemble methods, as Random Forests and Gradient Boosted Trees, have been successfully used for regression in many applications and research studies. Furthermore, these methods have been extended in order to deal with uncertainty…
The emergence of Quantum Machine Learning (QML) to enhance traditional classical learning methods has seen various limitations to its realisation. There is therefore an imperative to develop quantum models with unique model hypotheses to…
The aim of this thesis is to extend the applications of the Quantile Regression Forest (QRF) algorithm to handle mixed-frequency and longitudinal data. To this end, standard statistical approaches have been exploited to build two novel…
Quantile Factor Models (QFM) represent a new class of factor models for high-dimensional panel data. Unlike Approximate Factor Models (AFM), where only location-shifting factors can be extracted, QFM also allow to recover unobserved factors…
Random Forest (Breiman, 2001) is a successful and widely used regression and classification algorithm. Part of its appeal and reason for its versatility is its (implicit) construction of a kernel-type weighting function on training data,…
In recent years, censored quantile regression has enjoyed an increasing popularity for survival analysis while many existing works rely on linearity assumptions. In this work, we propose a Global Censored Quantile Random Forest (GCQRF) for…
To improve the uncertainty quantification of variance networks, we propose a novel tree-structured local neural network model that partitions the feature space into multiple regions based on uncertainty heterogeneity. A tree is built upon…
Decision Trees and Random Forests are among the most widely used machine learning models, and often achieve state-of-the-art performance in tabular, domain-agnostic datasets. Nonetheless, being primarily discriminative models they lack…