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We introduce the Hyperedge-triggered Hawkes (HTH) process for inferring higher-order interaction structure in multi-cellular systems from asynchronous event-time data. Beyond standard pairwise excitation, the HTH intensity includes a term…
Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are one of the most widely used statistical methods for analyzing sequence data. However, the reporting of output from HMMs has largely been restricted to the presentation of the most-probable (MAP) hidden state…
Radiotherapy is sensitive to executional and preparational uncertainties that propagate to uncertainty in dose and plan quality indicators like dose-volume histograms (DVHs). Current approaches to quantify and mitigate such uncertainties…
Hidden Markov models are versatile tools for modeling sequential observations, where it is assumed that a hidden state process selects which of finitely many distributions generates any given observation. Specifically for time series of…
This paper introduces a novel framework for modeling temporal events with complex longitudinal dependency that are generated by dependent sources. This framework takes advantage of multidimensional point processes for modeling time of…
Interval-censored multi-state data arise in many studies of chronic diseases, where the health status of a subject can be characterized by a finite number of disease states and the transition between any two states is only known to occur…
We construct a novel estimator for the diffusion coefficient of the limiting homogenized equation, when observing the slow dynamics of a multiscale model, in the case when the slow dynamics are of bounded variation. Previous research…
Motivated by applications in movement ecology, in this paper I propose a new class of integrated continuous-time hidden Markov models in which each observation depends on the underlying state of the process over the whole interval since the…
Stochastic differential equations provide a powerful tool for modelling dynamic phenomena affected by random noise. In case of repeated observations of time series for several experimental units, it is often the case that some of the…
We develop a class of exponential-family point processes based on a latent social space to model the coevolution of social structure and behavior over time. Temporal dynamics are modeled as a discrete Markov process specified through…
Spiking activity from populations of neurons display causal interactions and memory effects. Therefore, they are expected to show some degree of irreversibility in time. Motivated by the spike train statistics, in this paper we build a…
Up to now, the nonparametric analysis of multidimensional continuous-time Markov processes has focussed strongly on specific model choices, mostly related to symmetry of the semigroup. While this approach allows to study the performance of…
The pattern maximum likelihood (PML) estimate, introduced by Orlitsky et al., is an estimate of the multiset of probabilities in an unknown probability distribution $\mathbf{p}$, the estimate being obtained from $n$ i.i.d. samples drawn…
Given a sequence of observations from a discrete-time, finite-state hidden Markov model, we would like to estimate the sampling distribution of a statistic. The bootstrap method is employed to approximate the confidence regions of a…
Temporal networks consist of timestamped directed interactions that may appear continuously in time, yet few studies have directly tackled the continuous-time modeling of networks. Here, we introduce a maximum-entropy approach to temporal…
In this paper, we study the asymptotic variance of sample path averages for inhomogeneous Markov chains that evolve alternatingly according to two different $\pi$-reversible Markov transition kernels $P$ and $Q$. More specifically, our main…
Stochastic volatility models are the backbone of financial engineering. We study both continuous time diffusions as well as discrete time models. We propose two novel approaches to estimating stochastic volatility diffusions, one using…
We consider a discrete latent variable model for two-way data arrays, which allows one to simultaneously produce clusters along one of the data dimensions (e.g. exchangeable observational units or features) and contiguous groups, or…
Nonparametric identification and maximum likelihood estimation for finite-state hidden Markov models are investigated. We obtain identification of the parameters as well as the order of the Markov chain if the transition probability…
In this paper, we consider the problem of probabilistic stability analysis of a subclass of Stochastic Hybrid Systems, namely, Polyhedral Probabilistic Hybrid Systems (PPHS), where the flow dynamics is given by a polyhedral inclusion, the…