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Stock market prediction presents considerable challenges for investors, financial institutions, and policymakers operating in complex market environments characterized by noise, non-stationarity, and behavioral dynamics. Traditional…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-18 Mohammad Al Ridhawi , Mahtab Haj Ali , Hussein Al Osman

Deep learning has been shown to be highly effective for automatic modulation classification (AMC), which is a pivotal technology for next-generation cognitive communications. Yet, existing deep learning methods for AMC often lack robust…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-12-03 Huian Yang , Rajeev Sahay

Accurate covariance forecasting is central to portfolio allocation, risk management, and asset pricing, yet many existing methods struggle at medium-term horizons, where shifting market regimes and slower dynamics predominate. We propose a…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2026-05-21 Pedro Reis , Ana Paula Serra , João Gama

The rise of decentralized finance (DeFi) has created a growing demand for accurate yield and performance forecasting to guide liquidity allocation strategies. In this study, we benchmark six models, XGBoost, Random Forest, LSTM,…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-08-06 Chi-Sheng Chen , Aidan Hung-Wen Tsai

Ensemble learning is characterized by flexibility, high precision, and refined structure. As a critical component within computational finance, option pricing with machine learning requires both high predictive accuracy and reduced…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-09 Zeyuan Li , Qingdao Huang

Deep hedging trains neural networks to manage derivative risk under market frictions, but produces hedge ratios with no measure of model confidence -- a significant barrier to deployment. We introduce uncertainty quantification to the deep…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2026-03-12 Manan Poddar

This study applies machine learning to predict S&P 500 membership changes: key events that profoundly impact investor behavior and market dynamics. Quarterly data from WRDS datasets (2013 onwards) was used, incorporating features such as…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2024-12-18 Vidhi Agrawal , Eesha Khalid , Tianyu Tan , Doris Xu

Quantifying forecast uncertainty is a key aspect of state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction and data assimilation systems. Ensemble-based data assimilation systems incorporate state-dependent uncertainty quantification based on…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-05-17 Maximiliano A. Sacco , Manuel Pulido , Juan J. Ruiz , Pierre Tandeo

One of the most promising areas of research to obtain practical advantage is Quantum Machine Learning which was born as a result of cross-fertilisation of ideas between Quantum Computing and Classical Machine Learning. In this paper, we…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2021-11-08 N. Schetakis , D. Aghamalyan , M. Boguslavsky , P. Griffin

Quantum machine learning offers a promising pathway for enhancing stock market prediction, particularly under complex, noisy, and highly dynamic financial environments. However, many classical forecasting models struggle with noisy input,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-16 Chi-Sheng Chen , Xinyu Zhang , En-Jui Kuo , Rong Fu , Qiuzhe Xie , Fan Zhang

A powerful way to improve performance in machine learning is to construct an ensemble that combines the predictions of multiple models. Ensemble methods are often much more accurate and lower variance than the individual classifiers that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-03 Antonio Macaluso , Luca Clissa , Stefano Lodi , Claudio Sartori

Intrusion Detection Systems (IDSs) must maintain high detection sensitivity while operating under strict false-positive constraints, a challenge intensified by class imbalance and heterogeneous IoT traffic. This work investigates whether…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2026-05-29 Ritvik Bhatnagar , Nouhaila Innan , Angel Arul Jothi J. , Muhammad Shafique

Predicting cryptocurrency price trends remains a major challenge due to the volatility and complexity of digital asset markets. Artificial intelligence (AI) has emerged as a powerful tool to address this problem. This study proposes a…

Predicting fund performance is beneficial to both investors and fund managers, and yet is a challenging task. In this paper, we have tested whether deep learning models can predict fund performance more accurately than traditional…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-08-01 Nghia Chu , Binh Dao , Nga Pham , Huy Nguyen , Hien Tran

Quantum machine learning has shown advantages in many ways compared to classical machine learning. In machine learning, a difficult problem is how to learn a model with high robustness and strong generalization ability from a limited…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2022-10-14 Xiao-Ying Zhang , Ming-Ming Wang

This paper introduced key aspects of applying Machine Learning (ML) models, improved trading strategies, and the Quasi-Reversibility Method (QRM) to optimize stock option forecasting and trading results. It presented the findings of the…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2022-11-30 Zheng Cao , Raymond Guo , Wenyu Du , Jiayi Gao , Kirill V. Golubnichiy

There are inefficiencies in financial markets, with unexploited patterns in price, volume, and cross-sectional relationships. While many approaches use large-scale transformers, we take a domain-focused path: feed-forward and recurrent…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2025-10-15 Sid Ghatak , Arman Khaledian , Navid Parvini , Nariman Khaledian

Trend-following strategies underpin many systematic trading approaches yet struggle under nonstationary and nonlinear market regimes. We propose an LSTM-based framework to forecast next-day trend differences ($\Delta_t$) for the top 30 S\&P…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2026-03-17 Harris Buchanan , Eric Benhamou

Quantum Kernels are projected to provide early-stage usefulness for quantum machine learning. However, highly sophisticated classical models are hard to surpass without losing interpretability, particularly when vast datasets can be…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2024-04-04 Javier Mancilla , André Sequeira , Tomas Tagliani , Francisco Llaneza , Claudio Beiza

With the volatile and complex nature of financial data influenced by external factors, forecasting the stock market is challenging. Traditional models such as ARIMA and GARCH perform well with linear data but struggle with non-linear…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-30 Prashant Pilla , Raji Mekonen