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Climate models play a crucial role in understanding the effect of environmental and man-made changes on climate to help mitigate climate risks and inform governmental decisions. Large global climate models such as the Community Earth System…

Applications · Statistics 2020-12-02 Niccolò Dalmasso , Galen Vincent , Dorit Hammerling , Ann B. Lee

Modeling spatial heterogeneity and associated critical transitions remains a fundamental challenge in geography and environmental science. While conventional Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) and deep learning models have improved…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-04-07 Sooyoung Lim , Zhenlong Li , Zi-Kui Liu

A Bayesian approach is developed to analyze change points in multivariate time series and space-time data. The methodology is used to assess the impact of extended inundation on the ecosystem of the Gulf Plains bioregion in northern…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-06-21 Chris Strickland , Robert Burdett , Robert Denham , Robert Kohn , Kerrie Mengersen

Stochastic process models for spatiotemporal data underlying random fields find substantial utility in a range of scientific disciplines. Subsequent to predictive inference on the values of the random field (or spatial surface indexed…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-26 Aritra Halder , Didong Li , Sudipto Banerjee

Terrain analysis is critical for the practical ap- plication of ground mobile robots in real-world tasks, espe- cially in outdoor unstructured environments. In this paper, we propose a novel spatial-temporal traversability assessment…

Robotics · Computer Science 2025-10-21 Zhenyu Hou , Senming Tan , Zhihao Zhang , Long Xu , Mengke Zhang , Zhaoqi He , Chao Xu , Fei Gao , Yanjun Cao

The coarse spatial resolution of gridded climate models, such as general circulation models, limits their direct use in projecting socially relevant variables like extreme precipitation. Most downscaling methods estimate the conditional…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-01-06 Louise Largeau , Tom Beucler , David Leutwyler , Gregoire Mariethoz , Valerie Chavez-Demoulin , Erwan Koch

To better understand the dynamics of human settlements, thorough knowledge of the uncertainty in geospatial built-up surface datasets is critical. While frameworks for localized accuracy assessments of categorical gridded data have been…

Physics and Society · Physics 2022-06-23 Johannes H. Uhl , Stefan Leyk

We propose a bootstrap-based test to detect a mean shift in a sequence of high-dimensional observations with unknown time-varying heteroscedasticity. The proposed test builds on the U-statistic based approach in Wang et al. (2022), targets…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-17 Teng Wu , Stanislav Volgushev , Xiaofeng Shao

We propose a Bayesian hierarchical model for spatial extremes on a large domain. In the data layer a Gaussian elliptical copula having generalized extreme value (GEV) marginals is applied. Spatial dependence in the GEV parameters are…

Classical field forecast evaluation relies mainly on local scores such as RMSE or MAE. These metrics severely over-penalize small spatial or temporal displacements of coherent structures, a limitation known as the double-penalty issue and…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-04-20 Cyril Voyant

Regional socioeconomic indicators are critical across various domains, yet their acquisition can be costly. Inferring global socioeconomic indicators from a limited number of regional samples is essential for enhancing management and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-03 Xingchen Zou , Jiani Huang , Xixuan Hao , Yuhao Yang , Haomin Wen , Yibo Yan , Chao Huang , Chao Chen , Yuxuan Liang

Spatial regression is widely used for modeling the relationship between a dependent variable and explanatory covariates. Oftentimes, the linear relationships vary across space, when some covariates have location-specific effects on the…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-12-18 Xin Wang , Zhengyuan Zhu , Hao Helen Zhang

The validation of global climate models is crucial to ensure the accuracy and efficacy of model output. We introduce the spherical convolutional Wasserstein distance to more comprehensively measure differences between climate models and…

Applications · Statistics 2024-02-05 Robert C. Garrett , Trevor Harris , Bo Li , Zhuo Wang

Verification of global high-resolution precipitation forecasts is challenging. Spatial verification techniques address some shortcomings of traditional verification. However most existing methods do not account for the non-planar geometry…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-05-28 Gregor Skok , Llorenç Lledó

Spatial fields in the Earth and environmental sciences are often available at multiple scales or resolutions. While coarse-scale data (e.g., from global circulation models) are often abundant, they lack the local detail provided by…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-01 Alejandro Calle-Saldarriaga , Paul F. V. Wiemann , Matthias Katzfuss

This paper presents a spatial Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) approach in a 2D shallow water equations based High Resolution (HR) flood model. The aim of a spatial GSA is to produce sensitivity maps which are based on Sobol index…

Applications · Statistics 2016-03-24 M Abily , N. Bertrand , O Delestre , P Gourbesville , C. -M. Duluc

Nonstationary Gaussian processes (GPs) are essential for modeling complex, locally heterogeneous spatial data. A common modeling approach is the spatial deformation method that warps the domain to recover isotropy. However, this static…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-01 Minghao Gu , Weizhi Lin , Qiang Huang

Modeling spatial processes that exhibit both smooth and rough features poses a significant challenge. This is especially true in fields where complex physical variables are observed across spatial domains. Traditional spatial techniques,…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-30 Matthew Hofkes , Douglas Nychka

Many natural systems undergo critical transitions, i.e. sudden shifts from one dynamical regime to another. In the climate system, the atmospheric boundary layer can experience sudden transitions between fully turbulent states and…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2020-08-26 Amandine Kaiser , Davide Faranda , Sebastian Krumscheid , Danijel Belušić , Nikki Vercauteren

Quantifying spatial and/or temporal associations in multivariate geolocated data of different types is achievable via spatial random effects in a Bayesian hierarchical model, but severe computational bottlenecks arise when spatial…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-02 Michele Peruzzi , David B. Dunson