Related papers: Correlations between rare events due to long-term …
Equilibrium free energy differences are given by exponential averages of nonequilibrium work values; such averages, however, often converge poorly, as they are dominated by rare realizations. I show that there is a simple and intuitively…
In the face of the upcoming 30th anniversary of econophysics, we review our contributions and other related works on the modeling of the long-range memory phenomenon in physical, economic, and other social complex systems. Our group has…
Extreme weather events epitomize high cost: to society through their physical impacts, and to computer servers that simulate them to assess risk and advance physical understanding. It costs hundreds of simulation years to sample a few…
The efficient calculation of rare-event kinetics in complex dynamical systems, such as the rate and pathways of ligand dissociation from a protein, is a generally unsolved problem. Markov state models can systematically integrate ensembles…
The analysis of extremes in climate models is hindered by the lack of statistics due to the computational costs required to run simulations long enough to sample rare events. We demonstrate how rare event algorithms can improve the…
Motivated by the psychological literature on the "peak-end rule" for remembered experience, we perform an analysis within a random walk framework of a discrete choice model where agents' future choices depend on the peak memory of their…
Extreme events are emergent phenomena in multi-particle transport processes on complex networks. In practice, such events could range from power blackouts to call drops in cellular networks to traffic congestion on roads. All the earlier…
From a continuous-time long memory stochastic process, a discrete-time randomly sampled one is drawn. We investigate the second-order properties of this process and establish some time-and frequency-domain asymptotic results. We mainly…
Over the past decades much effort has been devoted towards understanding and forecasting natural hazards. However, earthquake forecasting skill is still very limited and remains a great scientific challenge. The limited earthquake…
Long range dependence or long memory is a feature of many processes in the natural world, which provides important insights on the underlying mechanisms that generate the observed data. The usual tools available to characterize the…
We conduct a review to assess how the simulation of repeated or recurrent events are planned. For such multivariate time-to-events, it is well established that the underlying mechanism is likely to be complex and to involve in particular…
Statistical inference for extreme values of random events is difficult in practice due to low sample sizes and inaccurate models for the studied rare events. If prior knowledge for extreme values is available, Bayesian statistics can be…
We study rare events in the extreme value statistics of stochastic symmetric jump processes with power tails in the distributions of the jumps, using the big-jump principle. The principle states that in the presence of stochastic processes…
Studying extreme events and how they evolve in a changing climate is one of the most important current scientific challenges. Starting from complex climate models, a key difficulty is to be able to run long enough simulations in order to…
In spite of precautions to avoid the harmful effects of extreme events, we experience recurrently phenomena that overcome the preventive barriers. These barriers usually increase drastically right after the occurrence of such extreme…
In this paper, we study the effects of correlated random phases in the intensity of a superposition of $N$ wave-fields. Our results suggest that regardless of whether the phase distribution is continuous or discrete if the phases are random…
We find the asymptotic distribution of the sample autocovariances of long-memory processes in cases of finite and infinite fourth moment. Depending on the interplay of assumptions on moments and the intensity of dependence, there are three…
Continuous Time Random Maxima (CTRM) are a generalization of classical extreme value theory: Instead of observing random events at regular intervals in time, the waiting times between the events are also random variables with arbitrary…
The statistics of records in sequences of independent, identically distributed random variables is a classic subject of study. One of the earliest results concerns the stochastic independence of record events. Recently, records statistics…
Due to the deterministic nature of chaotic systems, fluctuations in their trajectories arise solely from the choice of initial conditions. Some of these dynamical fluctuations may lead to extremely unlikely scenarios. Understanding the…