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The boundary discontinuity (BD) design is a non-experimental method for identifying causal effects that exploits a thresholding rule based on a bivariate score and a boundary curve. This widely used method generalizes the univariate…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-02-16 Matias D. Cattaneo , Rocio Titiunik , Ruiqi Rae Yu

We present new results on average causal effects in settings with unmeasured exposure-outcome confounding. Our results are motivated by a class of estimands, e.g., frequently of interest in medicine and public health, that are currently not…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-12-25 Lan Wen , Aaron L. Sarvet , Mats J. Stensrud

The real-world testing of decisions made using causal machine learning models is an essential prerequisite for their successful application. We focus on evaluating and improving contextual treatment assignment decisions: these are…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-07-13 Desi R. Ivanova , Joel Jennings , Cheng Zhang , Adam Foster

This paper develops a generalized framework for identifying causal impacts in a reduced-form manner under kinked settings when agents can manipulate their choices around the threshold. The causal estimation using a bunching framework was…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-04-16 Yi Lu , Jianguo Wang , Huihua Xie

Causal graphs may inform covariate adjustment for estimating causal effects and improve estimation efficiency by exploiting the graphical structure. In many applications, however, the target causal parameter may not be point-identified due…

This paper proposes a framework that incorporates the two-way fixed effects model as a special case to conduct causal inference with a continuous treatment. Treatments are allowed to change over time and potential outcomes are dependent on…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-01 Zhiguo Xiao , Peikai Wu

To represent the causal relationships between variables, a directed acyclic graph (DAG) is widely utilized in many areas, such as social sciences, epidemics, and genetics. Many causal structure learning approaches are developed to learn the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-01-14 Jianian Wang , Rui Song

Recent methodological research in causal inference has focused on effects of stochastic interventions, which assign treatment randomly, often according to subject-specific covariates. In this work, we demonstrate that the usual notion of…

Inferring the causal effect of a treatment on an outcome in an observational study requires adjusting for observed baseline confounders to avoid bias. However, adjusting for all observed baseline covariates, when only a subset are…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-02-04 Wen Wei Loh , Stijn Vansteelandt

Graph-based causal discovery methods aim to capture conditional independencies consistent with the observed data and differentiate causal relationships from indirect or induced ones. Successful construction of graphical models of data…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-01-08 Boris Hayete , Fred Gruber , Anna Decker , Raymond Yan

We present simple low-level conditions for identification in regression discontinuity designs using a potential outcome framework for the manipulation of the running variable. Using this framework, we replace the existing identification…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-09-18 Takuya Ishihara , Masayuki Sawada

Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) is a popular framework for estimating a causal effect in settings where treatment is assigned if an observed covariate exceeds a fixed threshold. We consider estimation and inference in the common…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-04-16 Kevin Tao , Y. Samuel Wang , David Ruppert

Many events and policies (treatments) occur at specific spatial locations, with researchers interested in their effects on nearby units. I approach the spatial treatment setting from an experimental perspective: What ideal experiment would…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-04-27 Michael Pollmann

Algorithms for constraint-based causal discovery select graphical causal models among a space of possible candidates (e.g., all directed acyclic graphs) by executing a sequence of conditional independence tests. These may be used to inform…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-19 Ting-Hsuan Chang , Zijian Guo , Daniel Malinsky

In many applications of causal inference, the treatment received by one unit may influence the outcome of another, a phenomenon referred to as interference. Although there are several frameworks for conducting causal inference in the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-27 Matvey Ortyashov , AmirEmad Ghassami

Optogenetics is a powerful neuroscience technique for studying how neural circuit manipulation affects behavior. Standard analysis conventions discard information and severely limit the scope of the causal questions that can be probed. To…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-02 Gabriel Loewinger , Alexander W. Levis , Francisco Pereira

Boundary Discontinuity (BD) designs are used in empirical research to learn about causal treatment effects along a continuous assignment boundary defined by a bivariate score. These designs are also known as multi-score regression…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-29 Matias D. Cattaneo , Rocio Titiunik , Ruiqi Rae Yu

Regression discontinuity (RD) is a widely used quasi-experimental design for causal inference. In the standard RD, the assignment to treatment is determined by a continuous pretreatment variable (i.e., running variable) falling above or…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-06-23 Fan Li , Andrea Mercatanti , Taneli Makinen , Andrea Silvestrini

Clinical decision-making is a feedback system where risk estimates influence treatment, which in turn changes disease trajectories, and both shape clinicians' measurement practices. Static prediction often fails clinically: models trained…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-05-19 Pujun Feng , Xiaoyu Guo , Seyed Ehsan Saffari , Min Hun Lee , Siew-Kei Lam , Erik Cambria , Xibin Sun , Yangtao Zhou , Tong Yang , Xiaoyu Zhang , Tao Tan , Yue Sun , Bin Cui

Conditioning on some set of confounders that causally affect both treatment and outcome variables can be sufficient for eliminating bias introduced by all such confounders when estimating causal effect of the treatment on the outcome from…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-04-24 Priyantha Wijayatunga
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