English
Related papers

Related papers: Unreliable Uncertainty Estimates with Monte Carlo …

200 papers

Deep learning (DL)-based methods have achieved state-of-the-art performance for many medical image segmentation tasks. Nevertheless, recent studies show that deep neural networks (DNNs) can be miscalibrated and overconfident, leading to…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-06-28 Yidong Zhao , Joao Tourais , Iain Pierce , Christian Nitsche , Thomas A. Treibel , Sebastian Weingärtner , Artur M. Schweidtmann , Qian Tao

Uncertainty-aware semantic segmentation of the point clouds includes the predictive uncertainty estimation and the uncertainty-guided model optimization. One key challenge in the task is the efficiency of point-wise predictive distribution…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-01-20 Chao Qi , Jianqin Yin

We study batch normalisation in the context of variational inference methods in Bayesian neural networks, such as mean-field or MC Dropout. We show that batch-normalisation does not affect the optimum of the evidence lower bound (ELBO).…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-12-25 Jishnu Mukhoti , Puneet K. Dokania , Philip H. S. Torr , Yarin Gal

Estimating uncertainty from deep neural networks is a widely used approach for detecting out-of-distribution (OoD) samples, which typically exhibit high predictive uncertainty. However, conventional methods such as Monte Carlo (MC) Dropout…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-07-25 JinYoung Kim , DaeUng Jo , Kimin Yun , Jeonghyo Song , Youngjoon Yoo

Likelihood-free inference methods typically make use of a distance between simulated and real data. A common example is the maximum mean discrepancy (MMD), which has previously been used for approximate Bayesian computation, minimum…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-05-11 Ayush Bharti , Masha Naslidnyk , Oscar Key , Samuel Kaski , François-Xavier Briol

In many real-world applications, from robotics to pedestrian trajectory prediction, there is a need to predict multiple real-valued outputs to represent several potential scenarios. Current deep learning techniques to address…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-20 David D. Nguyen , David Liebowitz , Surya Nepal , Salil S. Kanhere

Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) offer robust uncertainty quantification in model predictions, but training them presents a significant computational challenge. This is mainly due to the problem of sampling multimodal posterior distributions…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-14 Ratneel Deo , Scott Sisson , Jody M. Webster , Rohitash Chandra

The willingness to trust predictions formulated by automatic algorithms is key in a vast number of domains. However, a vast number of deep architectures are only able to formulate predictions without an associated uncertainty. In this…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-09-28 Matteo Ferrante , Tommaso Boccato , Nicola Toschi

Modern machine learning methods including deep learning have achieved great success in predictive accuracy for supervised learning tasks, but may still fall short in giving useful estimates of their predictive {\em uncertainty}. Quantifying…

Effectively measuring and modeling the reliability of a trained model is essential to the real-world deployment of monocular depth estimation (MDE) models. However, the intrinsic ill-posedness and ordinal-sensitive nature of MDE pose major…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-07-20 Mochu Xiang , Jing Zhang , Nick Barnes , Yuchao Dai

We present a comparison of methods for uncertainty quantification (UQ) in deep learning algorithms in the context of a simple physical system. Three of the most common uncertainty quantification methods - Bayesian Neural Networks (BNN),…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-12-08 João Caldeira , Brian Nord

A series of monte carlo studies were performed to compare the behavior of some alternative procedures for reasoning under uncertainty. The behavior of several Bayesian, linear model and default reasoning procedures were examined in the…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-03-26 Paul E. Lehner , Azar Sadigh

The reliability assessment of a machine learning model's prediction is an important quantity for the deployment in safety critical applications. Not only can it be used to detect novel sceneries, either as out-of-distribution or anomaly…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-12 Steve Dias Da Cruz , Bertram Taetz , Thomas Stifter , Didier Stricker

We present a novel approach for training deep neural networks in a Bayesian way. Classical, i.e. non-Bayesian, deep learning has two major drawbacks both originating from the fact that network parameters are considered to be deterministic.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-03-11 Konstantin Posch , Jan Steinbrener , Jürgen Pilz

Reliable forecasting of prosumer flexibility is critical for demand response aggregators participating in frequency controlled ancillary services market, where strict reliability requirements such as the P90 standard are enforced. Limited…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-01-22 Yogesh Pipada Sunil Kumar , S. Ali Pourmousavi , Jon A. R. Liisberg , Julian Lesmos-Vinasco

Detecting surface landmines and unexploded ordnances (UXOs) using deep learning has shown promise in humanitarian demining. However, deterministic neural networks can be vulnerable to noisy conditions and adversarial attacks, leading to…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-10-09 Sagar Lekhak , Emmett J. Ientilucci , Dimah Dera , Susmita Ghosh

Uncertainty estimates of modern neuronal networks provide additional information next to the computed predictions and are thus expected to improve the understanding of the underlying model. Reliable uncertainties are particularly…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2018-06-11 Alain Jungo , Raphael Meier , Ekin Ermis , Evelyn Herrmann , Mauricio Reyes

Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) are trained to optimize an entire distribution over their weights instead of a single set, having significant advantages in terms of, e.g., interpretability, multi-task learning, and calibration. Because of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-07 Jary Pomponi , Simone Scardapane , Aurelio Uncini

Deep neural networks (DNNs) have successfully learned useful data representations in various tasks. However, assessing the reliability of these representations remains a challenge. Deep Ensemble is widely considered the state-of-the-art…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-29 Yufeng Xia , Jun Zhang , Zhiqiang Gong , Tingsong Jiang , Wen Yao

This paper addresses the prediction stability, prediction accuracy and control capability of the current probabilistic model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL) built on neural networks. A novel approach dropout-based probabilistic…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-09-21 Wenjun Huang , Yunduan Cui , Huiyun Li , Xinyu Wu