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We propose stepwise variational inference (VI) with vine copulas: a universal VI procedure that combines vine copulas with a novel stepwise estimation procedure of the variational parameters. Vine copulas consist of a nested sequence of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-25 Elisabeth Griesbauer , Leiv Rønneberg , Arnoldo Frigessi , Claudia Czado , Ingrid Hobæk Haff

The statistical analysis of univariate quantiles is a well developed research topic. However, there is a need for research in multivariate quantiles. We construct bivariate (conditional) quantiles using the level curves of vine copula based…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-07-04 Marija Tepegjozova , Claudia Czado

Regular vine sequences permit the organisation of variables in a random vector along a sequence of trees. Regular vine models have become greatly popular in dependence modelling as a way to combine arbitrary bivariate copulas into…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-28 Anna Kiriliouk , Jeongjin Lee , Johan Segers

Modeling high-dimensional dependencies while keeping likelihoods tractable remains challenging. Classical vine-copula pipelines are interpretable but can be expensive, while many neural estimators are flexible but less structured. In this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-08 Houman Safaai

Systems subject to uncertain inputs produce uncertain responses. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) deals with the estimation of statistics of the system response, given a computational model of the system and a probabilistic model of its…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-08-13 E. Torre , S. Marelli , P. Embrechts , B. Sudret

Vine copulas are a flexible tool for multivariate non-Gaussian distributions. For data from an observational study where the explanatory variables and response variables are measured together, a proposed vine copula regression method uses…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-10-30 Bo Chang , Harry Joe

The advent of high-throughput sequencing technologies has lead to vast comparative genome sequences. The construction of gene-gene interaction networks or dependence graphs on the genome scale is vital for understanding the regulation of…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-03-06 Xinyao Fan , Harry Joe , Yongjin Park

Simplified vine copulas are flexible tools over standard multivariate distributions for modeling and understanding different dependence properties in high-dimensional data. Their conditional distributions are of utmost importance, from…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-26 Ariane Hanebeck , Özge Şahin , Petra Havlíčková , Claudia Czado

We propose a novel structure selection method for high dimensional (d > 100) sparse vine copulas. Current sequential greedy approaches for structure selection require calculating spanning trees in hundreds of dimensions and fitting the pair…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-05-18 Dominik Müller , Claudia Czado

The original development of Shapley values for prediction explanation relied on the assumption that the features being described were independent. If the features in reality are dependent this may lead to incorrect explanations. Hence,…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-02-15 Kjersti Aas , Thomas Nagler , Martin Jullum , Anders Løland

The majority of finite mixture models suffer from not allowing asymmetric tail dependencies within components and not capturing non-elliptical clusters in clustering applications. Since vine copulas are very flexible in capturing these…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-09-09 Özge Sahin , Claudia Czado

Vine copulas are flexible dependence models using bivariate copulas as building blocks. If the parameters of the bivariate copulas in the vine copula depend on covariates, one obtains a conditional vine copula. We propose an extension for…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-21 David Jobst , Annette Möller , Jürgen Groß

Vine copulas allow to build flexible dependence models for an arbitrary number of variables using only bivariate building blocks. The number of parameters in a vine copula model increases quadratically with the dimension, which poses new…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-11-20 Thomas Nagler , Christian Bumann , Claudia Czado

Varying-coefficient functional linear models consider the relationship between a response and a predictor, where the response depends not only the predictor but also an exogenous variable. It then accounts for the relation of the predictors…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-03-22 Hidetoshi Matsui

Electronic health records (EHR) store hundreds of demographic and laboratory variables from large patient populations. Traditional statistical methods have limited capacity in processing mixed-type data (continuous, ordinal) and capturing…

Computation · Statistics 2026-04-10 Manar D. Samad , Yina Hou , Megan A. Witherow , Norou Diawara

In this paper, we propose a regular vine copula based methodology for the fusion of correlated decisions. Regular vine copula is an extremely flexible and powerful graphical model to characterize complex dependence among multiple…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2019-03-27 Shan Zhang , Lakshmi Narasimhan Theagarajan , Sora Choi , Pramod K. Varshney

In this paper we present an enhancement of the regression-based variance reduction approaches recently proposed in Belomestny et al. This enhancement is based on a truncation of the control variate and allows for a significant reduction of…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-11-10 Denis Belomestny , Stefan Häfner , Mikhail Urusov

High-dimensional data sets are often available in genome-enabled predictions. Such data sets include nonlinear relationships with complex dependence structures. For such situations, vine copula based (quantile) regression is an important…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-24 Özge Sahin , Claudia Czado

Testing the simplifying assumption in high-dimensional vine copulas is a difficult task. Tests must be based on estimated observations and check constraints on high-dimensional distributions. So far, corresponding tests have been limited to…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-10-10 Malte S. Kurz , Fabian Spanhel

We propose vine copula-based classifiers for probabilistic risk prediction in perioperative settings. We obtain full joint probability models for mixed continuous-ordinal variables by fitting a separate vine copula to each outcome class,…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-24 Özge Şahin