Related papers: Improving the Accuracy of Amortized Model Comparis…

Many statistical models can be simulated forwards but have intractable likelihoods. Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) methods are used to infer properties of these models from data. Traditionally these methods approximate the posterior…

A new Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) algorithm for Bayesian updating of model parameters is proposed in this paper, which combines the ABC principles with the technique of Subset Simulation for efficient rare-event simulation, first…

Complex simulator-based models are now routinely used to perform inference across the sciences and engineering, but existing inference methods are often unable to account for outliers and other extreme values in data which occur due to…

Comparison of appropriate models to describe observational data is a fundamental task of science. The Bayesian model evidence, or marginal likelihood, is a computationally challenging, yet crucial, quantity to estimate to perform Bayesian…

Neural networks are popular state-of-the-art models for many different tasks.They are often trained via back-propagation to find a value of the weights that correctly predicts the observed data. Although back-propagation has shown good…

Many modern experiments, such as microarray gene expression and genome-wide association studies, present the problem of estimating a large number of parallel effects. Bayesian inference is a popular approach for analyzing such data by…

Bayesian decision theory provides an elegant framework for acting optimally under uncertainty when tractable posterior distributions are available. Modern Bayesian models, however, typically involve intractable posteriors that are…

Bayesian regression determines model parameters by minimizing the expected loss, an upper bound to the true generalization error. However, the loss ignores misspecification, where models are imperfect. Parameter uncertainties from Bayesian…

Bayesian optimization (BO) iteratively fits a Gaussian process (GP) surrogate to accumulated evaluations and selects new queries via an acquisition function such as expected improvement (EI). In practice, BO often concentrates evaluations…

Estimating the predictive uncertainty of a Bayesian learning model is critical in various decision-making problems, e.g., reinforcement learning, detecting adversarial attack, self-driving car. As the model posterior is almost always…

The core principle of Variational Inference (VI) is to convert the statistical inference problem of computing complex posterior probability densities into a tractable optimization problem. This property enables VI to be faster than several…

Modern Bayesian inference involves a mixture of computational methods for estimating, validating, and drawing conclusions from probabilistic models as part of principled workflows. An overarching motif of many Bayesian methods is that they…

The Cut posterior and related Semi-Modular Inference are Generalised Bayes methods for Modular Bayesian evidence combination. Analysis is broken up over modular sub-models of the joint posterior distribution. Model-misspecification in…

Model misspecification is ubiquitous in data analysis because the data-generating process is often complex and mathematically intractable. Therefore, assessing estimation uncertainty and conducting statistical inference under a possibly…

Bayesian inference for complex models with an intractable likelihood can be tackled using algorithms performing many calls to computer simulators. These approaches are collectively known as "simulation-based inference" (SBI). Recent SBI…

Bayesian statistical inference loses predictive optimality when generative models are misspecified. Working within an existing coherent loss-based generalisation of Bayesian inference, we show existing Modular/Cut-model inference is…

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methods, which are applicable when the likelihood is difficult or impossible to calculate, are an active topic of current research. Most current ABC algorithms directly approximate the posterior…

Bayesian inference promises to ground and improve the performance of deep neural networks. It promises to be robust to overfitting, to simplify the training procedure and the space of hyperparameters, and to provide a calibrated measure of…

Generalised Bayesian Inference (GBI) attempts to address model misspecification in a standard Bayesian setup by tempering the likelihood. The likelihood is raised to a fractional power, called the learning rate, which reduces its importance…

Bayesian inference often faces a trade-off between computational speed and sampling accuracy. We propose an adaptive workflow that integrates rapid amortized inference with gold-standard MCMC techniques to achieve a favorable combination of…