Related papers: Weighted Conformal Prediction Provides Adaptive an…
Conformal prediction is a popular technique for constructing prediction intervals with distribution-free coverage guarantees. The coverage is marginal, meaning it only holds on average over the entire population but not necessarily for any…
Uncertainty is critical to reliable decision-making with machine learning. Conformal prediction (CP) handles uncertainty by predicting a set on a test input, hoping the set to cover the true label with at least $(1-\alpha)$ confidence. This…
Conformal prediction (CP) has been a popular method for uncertainty quantification because it is distribution-free, model-agnostic, and theoretically sound. For forecasting problems in supervised learning, most CP methods focus on building…
In clinical applications, the utility of segmentation models is often based on the accuracy of derived downstream metrics such as organ size, rather than by the pixel-level accuracy of the segmentation masks themselves. Thus, uncertainty…
In this paper, we focus on the problem of conformal prediction with conditional guarantees. Prior work has shown that it is impossible to construct nontrivial prediction sets with full conditional coverage guarantees. A wealth of research…
Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is essential for safe deployment of generative AI models such as large language models (LLMs), especially in high stakes applications. Conformal prediction (CP) offers a principled uncertainty quantification…
We study the split Conformal Prediction method when applied to Markovian data. We quantify the gap in terms of coverage induced by the correlations in the data (compared to exchangeable data). This gap strongly depends on the mixing…
Split conformal prediction (CP) is arguably the most popular CP method for uncertainty quantification, enjoying both academic interest and widespread deployment. However, the original theoretical analysis of split CP makes the crucial…
Reliable uncertainty quantification is essential in survival prediction, particularly in clinical settings where erroneous decisions carry high risk. Conformal prediction has attracted substantial attention as it offers a model-agnostic…
In this paper, we present a novel approach for conformal prediction (CP), in which we aim to identify a set of promising prediction candidates -- in place of a single prediction. This set is guaranteed to contain a correct answer with high…
Conformal Prediction (CP) is a powerful framework for constructing prediction sets with guaranteed coverage. However, recent studies have shown that integrating confidence calibration with CP can lead to a degradation in efficiency. In this…
Conformal prediction, a post-hoc, distribution-free, finite-sample method of uncertainty quantification that offers formal coverage guarantees under the assumption of data exchangeability. Unfortunately, the resulting uncertainty regions…
Conformal prediction (CP) gives distribution-free coverage for modern vision and language models, but it is often forced to make a ranking decision from a single unstable nonconformity score. Standard CP uses one realization, while…
Machine learning (ML) is transforming healthcare, but safe clinical decisions demand reliable uncertainty estimates that standard ML models fail to provide. Conformal prediction (CP) is a popular tool that allows users to turn heuristic…
Deploying trustworthy AI systems requires principled uncertainty quantification. Conformal prediction (CP) is a widely used framework for constructing prediction sets with distribution-free coverage guarantees. In many practical settings,…
Conformal Prediction (CP) is a popular framework for constructing prediction bands with valid coverage in finite samples, while being free of any distributional assumption. A well-known limitation of conformal prediction is the lack of…
We develop fast distribution-free conformal prediction algorithms for obtaining multivalid coverage on exchangeable data in the batch setting. Multivalid coverage guarantees are stronger than marginal coverage guarantees in two ways: (1)…
While counterfactual fairness of point predictors is well studied, its extension to prediction sets--central to fair decision-making under uncertainty--remains underexplored. On the other hand, conformal prediction (CP) provides efficient,…
Conformal prediction (CP) is widely presented as distribution-free predictive inference with finite-sample marginal coverage under exchangeability. We argue that CP is best understood as a rank-calibrated descendant of the…
Missing data is an universal problem in statistics. We develop a unified framework for estimating parameters defined by general estimating equations under a missing-at-random (MAR) mechanism, based on generalized entropy calibration…