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The inverse probability weighting (IPW) is broadly utilized to address missing data problems including causal inference but may suffer from large variances and biases due to propensity score model misspecification. To solve these problems,…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-08-05 Hiroto Katsumata

Interference--in which a unit's outcome is affected by the treatment of other units--poses significant challenges for the identification and estimation of causal effects. Most existing methods for estimating interference effects assume that…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-14 Yuhua Zhang , Jukka-Pekka Onnela , Shuo Sun , Ruoyu Wang

Accurate estimation of treatment effects is essential for decision-making across various scientific fields. This task, however, becomes challenging in areas like social sciences and online marketplaces, where treating one experimental unit…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-04 Mohsen Bayati , Yuwei Luo , William Overman , Sadegh Shirani , Ruoxuan Xiong

AI models are often evaluated based on their ability to predict the outcome of interest. However, in many AI for social impact applications, the presence of an intervention that affects the outcome can bias the evaluation. Randomized…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-18 Winston Chen , Michael W. Sjoding , Jenna Wiens

Estimating causal effects from observational data informs us about which factors are important in an autonomous system, and enables us to take better decisions. This is important because it has applications in selecting a treatment in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-29 Plabon Shaha , Talha Islam Zadid , Ismat Rahman , Md. Mosaddek Khan

Inverse probability weighting (IPW) methods are commonly used to analyze non-ignorable missing data under the assumption of a logistic model for the missingness probability. However, solving IPW equations numerically may involve…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-24 Pengfei Li , Jing Qin , Yukun Liu

Unmeasured confounding presents a common challenge in observational studies, potentially making standard causal parameters unidentifiable without additional assumptions. Given the increasing availability of diverse data sources, exploiting…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-18 Shanshan Luo , Yechi Zhang , Wei Li

Estimating causal effects under interference, where the stable unit treatment value assumption is violated, is critical in fields such as regional and public economics. Much of the existing research on causal inference under interference…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-03 Akihiro Sato , Shonosuke Sugasawa

In this paper, we propose a propensity score adapted variable selection procedure to select covariates for inclusion in propensity score models, in order to eliminate confounding bias and improve statistical efficiency in observational…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-09-14 Kangjie Zhou , Jinzhu Jia

With continuous outcomes, the average causal effect is typically defined using a contrast of expected potential outcomes. However, in the presence of skewed outcome data, the expectation may no longer be meaningful. In practice the typical…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-06 Daisy A. Shepherd , Benjamin R. Baer , Margarita Moreno-Betancur

When studying treatment effects in multilevel studies, investigators commonly use (semi-)parametric estimators, which make strong parametric assumptions about the outcome, the treatment, and/or the correlation structure between study units…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-05-12 Chan Park , Hyunseung Kang

Several problems in statistics involve the combination of high-variance unbiased estimators with low-variance estimators that are only unbiased under strong assumptions. A notable example is the estimation of causal effects while combining…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-05-25 Michael Oberst , Alexander D'Amour , Minmin Chen , Yuyan Wang , David Sontag , Steve Yadlowsky

We study the probability tail properties of Inverse Probability Weighting (IPW) estimators of the Average Treatment Effect (ATE) when there is limited overlap between the covariate distributions of the treatment and control groups. Under…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-12 Jonathan B. Hill , Saraswata Chaudhuri

One core assumption typically adopted for valid causal inference is that of no interference between experimental units, i.e., the outcome of an experimental unit is unaffected by the treatments assigned to other experimental units. This…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-25 Yuki Ohnishi , Bikram Karmakar , Arman Sabbaghi

The inverse probability (IPW) and doubly robust (DR) estimators are often used to estimate the average causal effect (ATE), but are vulnerable to outliers. The IPW/DR median can be used for outlier-resistant estimation of the ATE, but the…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-16 Kazuharu Harada , Hironori Fujisawa

Background/aims: While randomized controlled trials are the gold standard for measuring causal effects, robust conclusions about causal relationships can be obtained using data from observational studies if proper statistical techniques are…

The large-scale multiple testing inherent to high throughput biological data necessitates very high statistical stringency and thus true effects in data are difficult to detect unless they have high effect sizes. One promising approach for…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-03-14 Mohamad Hasan , Paul Schliekelman

This paper aims to provide practitioners of causal mediation analysis with a better understanding of estimation options. We take as inputs two familiar strategies (weighting and model-based prediction) and a simple way of combining them…

To estimate causal effects, analysts performing observational studies in health settings utilize several strategies to mitigate bias due to confounding by indication. There are two broad classes of approaches for these purposes: use of…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-05-01 Roy S. Zawadzki , Joshua D. Grill , Daniel L. Gillen

While the inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) is a commonly used approach for treatment comparisons in observational data, the resulting estimates may be subject to bias and excessively large variance when there is lack of…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-13 Zhiqiang Cao , Lama Ghazi , Claudia Mastrogiacomo , Laura Forastiere , F. Perry Wilson , Fan Li