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Confidence sequences based on test martingales provide time-uniform uncertainty quantification for the mean of bounded IID observations without parametric distributional assumptions. Their practical efficiency, however, depends strongly on…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-12 Valentin Kilian , Stefano Cortinovis , François Caron

We discuss the use of empirical Bayes for data integration, in the sense of transfer learning. Our main interest is in settings where one wishes to learn structure (e.g. feature selection) and one only has access to incomplete data from…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-06 Paul Rognon-Vael , David Rossell

The prediction interval has been increasingly used in meta-analyses as a useful measure for assessing the magnitude of treatment effect and between-studies heterogeneity. In calculations of the prediction interval, although the…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-07-14 Yuta Hamaguchi , Hisashi Noma , Kengo Nagashima , Tomohide Yamada , Toshi A. Furukawa

When dealing with Bayesian inference the choice of the prior often remains a debatable question. Empirical Bayes methods offer a data-driven solution to this problem by estimating the prior itself from an ensemble of data. In the…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-05-13 Ilja Klebanov , Alexander Sikorski , Christof Schütte , Susanna Röblitz

Selection bias arises when the probability that an observation enters a dataset depends on variables related to the quantities of interest, leading to systematic distortions in estimation and uncertainty quantification. For example, in…

Empirical Bayes methods offer valuable tools for a large class of compound decision problems. In this tutorial we describe some basic principles of the empirical Bayes paradigm stressing their frequentist interpretation. Emphasis is placed…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-05 Roger Koenker , Jiaying Gu

In the sparse normal means model, coverage of adaptive Bayesian posterior credible sets associated to spike and slab prior distributions is considered. The key sparsity hyperparameter is calibrated via marginal maximum likelihood empirical…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-02-05 Ismael Castillo , Botond Szabo

Large-scale randomized experiments, sometimes called A/B tests, are increasingly prevalent in many industries. Though such experiments are often analyzed via frequentist $t$-tests, arguably such analyses are deficient: $p$-values are hard…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-03-27 F. Richard Guo , James McQueen , Thomas S. Richardson

This manuscript proposes a novel empirical Bayes technique for regularizing regression coefficients in predictive models. When predictions from a previously published model are available, this empirical Bayes method provides a natural…

Applications · Statistics 2017-10-12 Derek K Smith , Loren E Smith , Brett Kroncke , Frederic T Billings , Jens Meiler , Jeffrey Blume

Bayesian inference provides a flexible way of combining data with prior information. However, quantile regression is not equipped with a parametric likelihood, and therefore, Bayesian inference for quantile regression demands careful…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-07-24 Yunwen Yang , Xuming He

We propose a principled framework for nonparametric empirical Bayes (EB) estimation, based on the idea that the prior should be consistent with the observed posterior and that Bayesian updating should be stable. Focusing on discretized…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-14 Valentino Dardanoni , Stefano Demichelis

We introduce a flexible empirical Bayes approach for fitting Bayesian generalized linear models. Specifically, we adopt a novel mean-field variational inference (VI) method and the prior is estimated within the VI algorithm, making the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-01-30 Dongyue Xie , Wanrong Zhu , Matthew Stephens

Mutual information is widely used in artificial intelligence, in a descriptive way, to measure the stochastic dependence of discrete random variables. In order to address questions such as the reliability of the empirical value, one must…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2008-06-26 Marco Zaffalon , Marcus Hutter

Mutual information is widely used in artificial intelligence, in a descriptive way, to measure the stochastic dependence of discrete random variables. In order to address questions such as the reliability of the empirical value, one must…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2014-08-08 Marco Zaffalon , Marcus Hutter

Empirical Bayes (EB) improves the accuracy of simultaneous inference "by learning from the experience of others" (Efron, 2012). Classical EB theory focuses on latent variables that are iid draws from a fitted prior (Efron, 2019). Modern…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-24 Bohan Wu , Eli N. Weinstein , David M. Blei

In this paper we develop and study adaptive empirical Bayesian smoothing splines. These are smoothing splines with both smoothing parameter and penalty order determined via the empirical Bayes method from the marginal likelihood of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-11-18 Paulo Serra , Tatyana Krivobokova

Adding domain knowledge to a learning system is known to improve results. In multi-parameter Bayesian frameworks, such knowledge is incorporated as a prior. On the other hand, various model parameters can have different learning rates in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-22 Sareh Nabi , Houssam Nassif , Joseph Hong , Hamed Mamani , Guido Imbens

In applications of Bayesian procedures, once a class of priors has been chosen, it may be tempting to fix the prior's hyperparameters from the data, in an empirical Bayes (EB) fashion, usually by their maximum marginal likelihood estimates…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-04-14 Stefano Rizzelli , Judith Rousseau , Sonia Petrone

This paper studies the sparse normal mean models under the empirical Bayes framework. We focus on the mixture priors with an atom at zero and a density component centered at a data driven location determined by maximizing the marginal…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-02-20 Xianyang Zhang , Anirban Bhattacharya

We revisit empirical Bayes in the absence of a tractable likelihood function, as is typical in scientific domains relying on computer simulations. We investigate how the empirical Bayesian can make use of neural density estimators first to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-03-02 Maxime Vandegar , Michael Kagan , Antoine Wehenkel , Gilles Louppe