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Related papers: Causal Counterfactuals Reconsidered

200 papers

Recently, Batusov and Soutchanski proposed a notion of actual achievement cause in the situation calculus, amongst others, they can determine the cause of quantified effects in a given action history. While intuitively appealing, this…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-05-13 Daxin Liu , Vaishak Belle

We present a general framework for evaluating image counterfactuals. The power and flexibility of deep generative models make them valuable tools for learning mechanisms in structural causal models. However, their flexibility makes…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-03-03 Miguel Monteiro , Fabio De Sousa Ribeiro , Nick Pawlowski , Daniel C. Castro , Ben Glocker

Hazard serves as a pivotal estimand in both practical applications and methodological frameworks. However, its causal interpretation poses notable challenges, including inherent selection biases and ill-defined populations to be compared…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-08 En-Yu Lai , Yen-Tsung Huang

Interpretability research takes counterfactual theories of causality for granted. Most causal methods rely on counterfactual interventions to inputs or the activations of particular model components, followed by observations of the change…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-08 Aaron Mueller

The semantics for counterfactuals due to David Lewis has been challenged on the basis of unlikely, or impossible, events. Such events may skew a given similarity order in favour of those possible worlds which exhibit them. By updating the…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2016-06-28 Patrick Girard , Marcus Anthony Triplett

Lewis' theory of counterfactuals is the foundation of many contemporary notions of causality. In this paper, we extend this theory in the temporal direction to enable symbolic counterfactual reasoning on infinite sequences, such as…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2023-06-16 Bernd Finkbeiner , Julian Siber

The problem of individualization is recognized as crucial in almost every field. Identifying causes of effects in specific events is likewise essential for accurate decision making. However, such estimates invoke counterfactual…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-05-04 Scott Mueller , Ang Li , Judea Pearl

We propose a decision theoretic framework that allows a decision maker to express its causal model of the world. We extend the model of Savage (1972) by allowing the decision maker (DM) to choose policy interventions prior to choosing acts…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2024-07-23 Pablo Schenone

This paper proposes new formulas for the probabilities of causation difined by Pearl (2000). Tian and Pearl (2000a, 2000b) showed how to bound the quantities of the probabilities of causation from experimental and observational data, under…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-07-02 Manabu Kuroki , Zhihong Cai

Judea Pearl was the first to propose a definition of actual causation using causal models. A number of authors have suggested that an adequate account of actual causation must appeal not only to causal structure, but also to considerations…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-09-06 Joseph Y. Halpern , Christopher Hitchcock

Existing tools for explaining complex models and systems are associational rather than causal and do not provide mechanistic understanding. We propose a new notion called counterfactual explainability for causal attribution that is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-07 Zijun Gao , Qingyuan Zhao

Several approaches to causal inference from observational studies have been proposed. Since the proposal of Rubin (1974) many works have developed a counterfactual approach to causality, statistically formalized by potential outcomes. Pearl…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-05-06 Daniel Commenges

Current pre-trained language models have enabled remarkable improvements in downstream tasks, but it remains difficult to distinguish effects of statistical correlation from more systematic logical reasoning grounded on the understanding of…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-05-29 Jiaxuan Li , Lang Yu , Allyson Ettinger

Reasoning about the effect of interventions and counterfactuals is a fundamental task found throughout the data sciences. A collection of principles, algorithms, and tools has been developed for performing such tasks in the last decades…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-08 Tara V. Anand , Adèle H. Ribeiro , Jin Tian , Elias Bareinboim

We propose a formalization of the three-tier causal hierarchy of association, intervention, and counterfactuals as a series of probabilistic logical languages. Our languages are of strictly increasing expressivity, the first capable of…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2021-06-03 Duligur Ibeling , Thomas Icard

Causality plays an important role in understanding intelligent behavior, and there is a wealth of literature on mathematical models for causality, most of which is focused on causal graphs. Causal graphs are a powerful tool for a wide range…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-12-23 Scott Garrabrant , Matthias Georg Mayer , Magdalena Wache , Leon Lang , Sam Eisenstat , Holger Dell

The concept of causality has a controversial history. The question of whether it is possible to represent and address causal problems with probability theory, or if fundamentally new mathematics such as the do-calculus is required has been…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-10-22 Finnian Lattimore , David Rohde

We show that one can perform causal inference in a natural way for continuous-time scenarios using tools from stochastic analysis. This provides new alternatives to the positivity condition for inverse probability weighting. The probability…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-04-23 Kjetil Røysland

Pearl's front-door criterion provides a set of sufficient conditions for estimating the total causal effect from observational data in the presence of latent confounding, using the functional P(y | do(x := x*)) = \sum_z P(z | x*) \sum_x P(y…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-04-17 Carol Wu , Elina Robeva

We show that quantum oracles provide an advantage over classical oracles for answering classical counterfactual questions in causal models, or equivalently, for identifying unknown causal parameters such as distributions over functional…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2025-12-16 Ciarán M. Gilligan-Lee , Yìlè Yīng , Jonathan Richens , David Schmid