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Related papers: Uncertainty Quantification for Machine Learning: O…

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Uncertainty quantification is crucial for building reliable and trustable machine learning systems. We propose to estimate uncertainty in recurrent neural networks (RNNs) via stochastic discrete state transitions over recurrent timesteps.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-11-25 Cheng Wang , Carolin Lawrence , Mathias Niepert

Machine learning (ML) systems are increasingly deployed in high-stakes domains where reliability is paramount. This thesis investigates how uncertainty estimation can enhance the safety and trustworthiness of ML, focusing on selective…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-09 Stephan Rabanser

Machine learning classifiers are probabilistic in nature, and thus inevitably involve uncertainty. Predicting the probability of a specific input to be correct is called uncertainty (or confidence) estimation and is crucial for risk…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-11 Gabriella Chouraqui , Liron Cohen , Gil Einziger , Liel Leman

Reliable uncertainty quantification in deep neural networks is very crucial in safety-critical applications such as automated driving for trustworthy and informed decision-making. Assessing the quality of uncertainty estimates is…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-12-12 Neslihan Kose , Ranganath Krishnan , Akash Dhamasia , Omesh Tickoo , Michael Paulitsch

In quantum theory, it is known for a pair of noncommutative observables that there is no state on which they take simultaneously definite values, and that there is no joint measurement of them. They are called preparation uncertainty and…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2020-09-02 Ryo Takakura , Takayuki Miyadera

In this study, we explore in depth a few under-studied topics at the intersection of uncertainty estimation and segmentation. Prior work has shown that the quality of uncertainty estimates can be very sensitive to a range of variables. As…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-05-18 Michael Smith , Frank P. Ferrie

In binary classification problems, mainly two approaches have been proposed; one is loss function approach and the other is uncertainty set approach. The loss function approach is applied to major learning algorithms such as support vector…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2012-05-01 Takafumi Kanamori , Akiko Takeda , Taiji Suzuki

Uncertainty sampling in active learning is heavily used in practice to reduce the annotation cost. However, there has been no wide consensus on the function to be used for uncertainty estimation in binary classification tasks and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-01 Anant Raj , Francis Bach

Accurate quantification of model uncertainty has long been recognized as a fundamental requirement for trusted AI. In regression tasks, uncertainty is typically quantified using prediction intervals calibrated to a specific operating point,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-03 Jiri Navratil , Benjamin Elder , Matthew Arnold , Soumya Ghosh , Prasanna Sattigeri

Aleatoric (data) and epistemic (knowledge) uncertainty are textbook components of Uncertainty Quantification. Jointly estimating these components has been shown to be problematic and non-trivial. As a result, there are multiple ways to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-12 Ivo Pascal de Jong , Andreea Ioana Sburlea , Matthia Sabatelli , Matias Valdenegro-Toro

There are various measures of predictive uncertainty in the literature, but their relationships to each other remain unclear. This paper uses a decomposition of statistical pointwise risk into components, associated with different sources…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-02-18 Nikita Kotelevskii , Vladimir Kondratyev , Martin Takáč , Éric Moulines , Maxim Panov

Machine learning classification tasks often benefit from predicting a set of possible labels with confidence scores to capture uncertainty. However, existing methods struggle with the high-dimensional nature of the data and the lack of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-08 Rui Luo , Zhixin Zhou

Within the last few years, there has been a move towards using statistical models in conjunction with neural networks with the end goal of being able to better answer the question, "what do our models know?". From this trend, classical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-03 Achintya Gopal

Accurate uncertainty quantification is critical for reliable predictive modeling. Existing methods typically address either aleatoric uncertainty due to measurement noise or epistemic uncertainty resulting from limited data, but not both in…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-04 Ilia Azizi , Juraj Bodik , Jakob Heiss , Bin Yu

Deep learning based methods for automatic organ segmentation have shown promise in aiding diagnosis and treatment planning. However, quantifying and understanding the uncertainty associated with model predictions is crucial in critical…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-08-16 Jadie Adams , Shireen Y. Elhabian

Misclassification detection is an important problem in machine learning, as it allows for the identification of instances where the model's predictions are unreliable. However, conventional uncertainty measures such as Shannon entropy do…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-02-09 Eduardo Dadalto , Marco Romanelli , Georg Pichler , Pablo Piantanida

Being uncertain when facing the unknown is key to intelligent decision making. However, machine learning algorithms lack reliable estimates about their predictive uncertainty. This leads to wrong and overly-confident decisions when…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-14 Mohamed Ishmael Belghazi , David Lopez-Paz

Artificial Intelligence (AI) holds the potential to dramatically improve patient care. However, it is not infallible, necessitating human-AI-collaboration to ensure safe implementation. One aspect of AI safety is the models' ability to…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-08-27 Anna M. Wundram , Christian F. Baumgartner

In safety-critical applications data-driven models must not only be accurate but also provide reliable uncertainty estimates. This property, commonly referred to as calibration, is essential for risk-aware decision-making. In regression a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-23 Jelke Wibbeke , Nico Schönfisch , Sebastian Rohjans , Andreas Rauh

There are strong incentives to build models that demonstrate outstanding predictive performance on various datasets and benchmarks. We believe these incentives risk a narrow focus on models and on the performance metrics used to evaluate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-07 David Lovell , Dimity Miller , Jaiden Capra , Andrew Bradley