Related papers: Extending the application of dynamic Bayesian netw…

This study introduces a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) framework for forecasting value at risk (VaR) and stressed VaR (SVaR) and compares its performance to several commonly applied models. Using daily S&P 500 index returns from 1991 to…

Expected Shortfall (ES) is the average return on a risky asset conditional on the return being below some quantile of its distribution, namely its Value-at-Risk (VaR). The Basel III Accord, which will be implemented in the years leading up…

This paper develops a Bayesian framework for the realized exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (realized EGARCH) model, which can incorporate multiple realized volatility measures for the modelling of a…

On a daily investment decision in a security market, the price earnings (PE) ratio is one of the most widely applied methods being used as a firm valuation tool by investment experts. Unfortunately, recent academic developments in financial…

In this paper, we revisit the parameter learning problem, namely the estimation of model parameters for Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs). DBNs are directed graphical models of stochastic processes that encompasses and generalize Hidden…

Expected shortfall (ES), also known as conditional value-at-risk, is a widely recognized risk measure that complements value-at-risk by capturing tail-related risks more effectively. Compared with quantile regression, which has been…

Expected Shortfall (ES) is a coherent measure of tail risk that captures the average loss beyond a quantile threshold. Despite the growing literature on ES regression conditional on covariates, no existing work considers ES modeling in…

Value-at-risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) are two commonly utilized metrics for quantifying financial risk. In this study, we review the widely employed Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models. These…

Imbalanced data with a skewed class distribution are common in many real-world applications. Deep Belief Network (DBN) is a machine learning technique that is effective in classification tasks. However, conventional DBN does not work well…

Systemic risk measures have been shown to be predictive of financial crises and declines in real activity. Thus, forecasting them is of major importance in finance and economics. In this paper, we propose a new forecasting method for…

Historical (Stressed-) Value-at-Risk ((S)VAR), and Expected Shortfall (ES), are widely used risk measures in regulatory capital and Initial Margin, i.e. funding, computations. However, whilst the definitions of VAR and ES are unambiguous,…

Extreme weather frequently cause widespread outages in distribution systems (DSs), demonstrating the importance of hardening strategies for resilience enhancement. However, the well-utilization of real-world outage data with associated…

The realized GARCH framework is extended to incorporate the two-sided Weibull distribution, for the purpose of volatility and tail risk forecasting in a financial time series. Further, the realized range, as a competitor for realized…

The joint Value at Risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) quantile regression model of Taylor (2017) is extended via incorporating a realized measure, to drive the tail risk dynamics, as a potentially more efficient driver than daily…

Deep neural networks (DNNs) have been successfully applied to many real-world problems, but a complete understanding of their dynamical and computational principles is still lacking. Conventional theoretical frameworks for analysing DNNs…

Cut-in maneuvers in high-speed traffic pose critical challenges that can lead to abrupt braking and collisions, necessitating safe and efficient lane change strategies. We propose a Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) framework to integrate…

A new semi-parametric Expected Shortfall (ES) estimation and forecasting framework is proposed. The proposed approach is based on a two-step estimation procedure. The first step involves the estimation of Value-at-Risk (VaR) at different…

Many retailers today employ inventory management systems based on Re-Order Point Policies, most of which rely on the assumption that all decreases in product inventory levels result from product sales. Unfortunately, it usually happens that…

Short-term load forecasting (STLF) is a challenging problem due to the complex nature of the time series expressing multiple seasonality and varying variance. This paper proposes an extension of a hybrid forecasting model combining…

Causal learning from data has received much attention recently. Bayesian networks can be used to capture causal relationships. There, one recovers a weighted directed acyclic graph in which random variables are represented by vertices, and…