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We introduce a dynamic spatiotemporal volatility model that extends traditional approaches by incorporating spatial, temporal, and spatiotemporal spillover effects, along with volatility-specific observed and latent factors. The model…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-23 Osman Doğan , Raffaele Mattera , Philipp Otto , Süleyman Taşpınar

Discovering causal relations from observational time series without making the stationary assumption is a significant challenge. In practice, this challenge is common in many areas, such as retail sales, transportation systems, and medical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-11 Shanyun Gao , Raghavendra Addanki , Tong Yu , Ryan A. Rossi , Murat Kocaoglu

Conditional heteroscedastic (CH) models are routinely used to analyze financial datasets. The classical models such as ARCH-GARCH with time-invariant coefficients are often inadequate to describe frequent changes over time due to market…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-03-09 Sayar Karmakar , Arkaprava Roy

In stochastic optimal control (SOC), uncertainty may arise from incomplete knowledge of the true probability distribution of the underlying environment, which is known as Knightian or epistemic uncertainty. Distributionally robust optimal…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-04-10 Wentao Ma , Zhiping Chen , Huifu Xu , Enlu Zhou

Many practical applications of control require that constraints on the inputs and states of the system be respected, while optimizing some performance criterion. In the presence of model uncertainties or disturbances, for many control…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-10-02 Georg Schildbach , Lorenzo Fagiano , Christoph Frei , Manfred Morari

We consider the problem of sparsity-constrained $M$-estimation when both explanatory and response variables have heavy tails (bounded 4-th moments), or a fraction of arbitrary corruptions. We focus on the $k$-sparse, high-dimensional regime…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-05-31 Liu Liu , Tianyang Li , Constantine Caramanis

In this paper, we propose a chance constrained stochastic model predictive control scheme for reference tracking of distributed linear time-invariant systems with additive stochastic uncertainty. The chance constraints are reformulated…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-03-07 Christoph Mark , Steven Liu

Time series forecasting (TSF) is critical across domains such as finance, meteorology, and energy. While extending the lookback window theoretically provides richer historical context, in practice, it often introduces irrelevant noise and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-03 Xiang Ao , Yinyu Tan , Mengru Chen

Many real-world datasets, such as healthcare, climate, and economics, are often collected as irregular time series, which poses challenges for accurate modeling. In this paper, we propose the Amortized Control of continuous State Space…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-03-03 Byoungwoo Park , Hyungi Lee , Juho Lee

Transmit optimization and resource allocation for wireless cooperative networks with channel state information (CSI) uncertainty are important but challenging problems in terms of both the uncertainty modeling and performance op-…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2014-06-30 Yuanming Shi , Jun Zhang , Khaled B. Letaief

This research attempts to model the stochastic process of trades in a limit order book market as a marked point process. We propose a semi-parametric model for the conditional distribution given the past, attempting to capture the effect of…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-03-06 Mingyu Tang , Mark Schervish

Model Predictive Control is an extremely effective control method for systems with input and state constraints. Model Predictive Control performance heavily depends on the accuracy of the open-loop prediction. For systems with uncertainty…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-07-27 Francesco Micheli , John Lygeros

Bus holding control is challenging due to stochastic traffic and passenger demand. While deep reinforcement learning (DRL) shows promise, standard actor-critic algorithms suffer from Q-value instability in volatile environments. A key…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-20 Yifan Zhang , Liang Zheng

The increasing complexity of distribution network calls for advancement in distribution system state estimation (DSSE) to monitor the operating conditions more accurately. Sufficient number of measurements is imperative for a reliable and…

Applications · Statistics 2018-11-09 Mehdi Shafiei , Ghavameddin Nourbakhsh , Ali Arefi , Gerard Ledwich , Houman Pezeshki

This paper proposes control approaches for discrete-time linear systems subject to stochastic disturbances. It employs Kalman filter to estimate the mean and covariance of the state propagation, and the worst-case conditional value-at-risk…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-12-20 Masako Kishida

The measured correlations of financial time series in subsequent epochs change considerably as a function of time. When studying the whole correlation matrices, quasi-stationary patterns, referred to as market states, are seen by applying…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-11-03 Anton J. Heckens , Sebastian M. Krause , Thomas Guhr

Nonparametric varying coefficient (NVC) models are useful for modeling time-varying effects on responses that are measured repeatedly for the same subjects. When the number of covariates is moderate or large, it is desirable to perform…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-19 Ray Bai , Mary R. Boland , Yong Chen

We propose a model-agnostic stochastic predictive control (MASMPC) algorithm for dynamical systems. The proposed approach first discovers \textit{interpretable} governing differential equations from data using a novel algorithm and blends…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-11-24 Tapas Tripura , Souvik Chakraborty

Off-policy actor-critic methods in reinforcement learning train a critic with temporal-difference updates and use it as a learning signal for the policy (actor). This design typically achieves higher sample efficiency than purely on-policy…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-05 Uğurcan Özalp

We propose a fundamental-lemma-free data-driven predictive control (DDPC) scheme for synthesizing model predictive control (MPC)-like policies directly from input-output data. Unlike the well-known DeePC approach and other DDPC methods that…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-12-17 Aihui Liu , Magnus Jansson