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We apply Bayesian Additive Regression Tree (BART) principles to training an ensemble of small neural networks for regression tasks. Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo, we sample from the posterior distribution of neural networks that have a…
In light of widespread evidence of parameter instability in macroeconomic models, many time-varying parameter (TVP) models have been proposed. This paper proposes a nonparametric TVP-VAR model using Bayesian additive regression trees (BART)…
General circulation models (GCMs) are essential tools for climate studies. Such climate models may have varying accuracy across the input domain, but no model is uniformly best. One can improve climate model prediction performance by…
Multivariate mixed-type outcomes are difficult to model jointly, and additional complexity arises when both marginal effects and dependence structures vary with a covariate such as age or time. Existing approaches often impose restrictive…
We propose a simple yet powerful extension of Bayesian Additive Regression Trees which we name Hierarchical Embedded BART (HE-BART). The model allows for random effects to be included at the terminal node level of a set of regression trees,…
We provide a new flexible framework for inference with the instrumental variable model. Rather than using linear specifications, functions characterizing the effects of instruments and other explanatory variables are estimated using machine…
This paper develops a novel stochastic tree ensemble method for nonlinear regression, which we refer to as XBART, short for Accelerated Bayesian Additive Regression Trees. By combining regularization and stochastic search strategies from…
Ensemble decision tree methods such as XGBoost, Random Forest, and Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) have gained enormous popularity in data science for their superior performance in machine learning regression and classification…
We develop a Bayesian non-parametric quantile panel regression model. Within each quantile, the response function is a convex combination of a linear model and a non-linear function, which we approximate using Bayesian Additive Regression…
Although it is an extremely effective, easy-to-use, and increasingly popular tool for nonparametric regression, the Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) model is limited by the fact that it can only produce discontinuous output.…
This article proposes a novel framework that integrates Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) into a Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) model to forecast macro-financial variables and examine asymmetries in the transmission…
In this paper we develop the randomized Sharded Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (SBT) model. We introduce a randomization auxiliary variable and a sharding tree to decide partitioning of data, and fit each partition component to a…
The effectiveness of Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) has been demonstrated in a variety of contexts including non-parametric regression and classification. A BART scheme for estimating the intensity of inhomogeneous Poisson…
Flexibly modeling how an entire density changes with covariates is an important but challenging generalization of mean and quantile regression. While existing methods for density regression primarily consist of covariate-dependent discrete…
Bayes additive regression trees(BART) is a nonparametric regression model which has gained wide-spread popularity in recent years due to its flexibility and high accuracy of estimation. Soft BART,one variation of BART,improves both…
Bayesian additive regression trees (BART) is a regression technique developed by Chipman et al. (2008). Its usefulness in standard regression settings has been clearly demonstrated, but it has not been applied to time series analysis as…
Dealing with missing data poses significant challenges in predictive analysis, often leading to biased conclusions when oversimplified assumptions about the missing data process are made. In cases where the data are missing not at random…
Most implementations of Bayesian additive regression trees (BART) one-hot encode categorical predictors, replacing each one with several binary indicators, one for every level or category. Regression trees built with these indicators…
Few methods in Bayesian non-parametric statistics/ machine learning have received as much attention as Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART). While BART is now routinely performed for prediction tasks, its theoretical properties began…
This article introduces a flexible and adaptive nonparametric method for estimating the association between multiple covariates and power spectra of multiple time series. The proposed approach uses a Bayesian sum of trees model to capture…