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Accurate estimation of counterfactual outcomes in high-dimensional data is crucial for decision-making and understanding causal relationships and intervention outcomes in various domains, including healthcare, economics, and social…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-31 Jiageng Zhu , Hanchen Xie , Jiazhi Li , Wael Abd-Almageed

Clinical risk prediction is a valuable tool for guiding healthcare interventions toward those most likely to benefit. Yet, evaluating the pairing of a risk prediction model with an intervention using randomized controlled trials presents…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-31 Valerie Odeh-Couvertier , Gabriel Zayas-Caban , Brian Patterson , Amy Cochran

Machine learning plays a role in many deployed decision systems, often in ways that are difficult or impossible to understand by human stakeholders. Explaining, in a human-understandable way, the relationship between the input and output of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-17 Sahil Verma , Varich Boonsanong , Minh Hoang , Keegan E. Hines , John P. Dickerson , Chirag Shah

The reliance of text classifiers on spurious correlations can lead to poor generalization at deployment, raising concerns about their use in safety-critical domains such as healthcare. In this work, we propose to use counterfactual data…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-10 Amir Feder , Yoav Wald , Claudia Shi , Suchi Saria , David Blei

Data-driven decision making frequently relies on predicting counterfactual outcomes. In practice, researchers commonly train counterfactual prediction models on a source dataset to inform decisions on a possibly separate target population.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-07 Keith Barnatchez , Kevin P. Josey , Rachel C. Nethery , Giovanni Parmigiani

With the widespread accumulation of observational data, researchers obtain a new direction to learn counterfactual effects in many domains (e.g., health care and computational advertising) without Randomized Controlled Trials(RCTs).…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-01 Guanglin Zhou , Lina Yao , Xiwei Xu , Chen Wang , Liming Zhu

In this paper, we propose a new and unified approach for nonparametric regression and conditional distribution learning. Our approach simultaneously estimates a regression function and a conditional generator using a generative learning…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-06-28 Shanshan Song , Tong Wang , Guohao Shen , Yuanyuan Lin , Jian Huang

This paper presents a novel methodology for tractably solving optimal control and offline reinforcement learning problems for high-dimensional systems. This work is motivated by the ongoing challenges of safety, computation, and optimality…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-07-06 Aaron Kandel , Saehong Park , Scott Moura

We develop a novel method for counterfactual analysis based on observational data using prediction intervals for units under different exposures. Unlike methods that target heterogeneous or conditional average treatment effects of an…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-07-18 Dave Zachariah , Petre Stoica

Decision-makers are faced with the challenge of estimating what is likely to happen when they take an action. For instance, if I choose not to treat this patient, are they likely to die? Practitioners commonly use supervised learning…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-02-02 Peter Schulam , Suchi Saria

We study the problem of generating counterfactual text for a classifier as a means for understanding and debugging classification. Given a textual input and a classification model, we aim to minimally alter the text to change the model's…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2021-10-25 Quintin Pope , Xiaoli Z. Fern

Counterfactual explanations for black-box models aim to pr ovide insight into an algorithmic decision to its recipient. For a binary classification problem an individual counterfactual details which features might be changed for the model…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-29 James M. Adams , Gesine Reinert , Lukasz Szpruch , Carsten Maple , Andrew Elliott

Motivated by the burgeoning interest in cross-domain learning, we present a novel generative modeling challenge: generating counterfactual samples in a target domain based on factual observations from a source domain. Our approach operates…

We propose a framework for analyzing the sensitivity of counterfactuals to parametric assumptions about the distribution of latent variables in structural models. In particular, we derive bounds on counterfactuals as the distribution of…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-03-26 Timothy Christensen , Benjamin Connault

Surrogate models are often used as computationally efficient approximations to complex simulation models, enabling tasks such as solving inverse problems, sensitivity analysis, and probabilistic forward predictions, which would otherwise be…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-13 Philipp Reiser , Paul-Christian Bürkner , Anneli Guthke

Counterfactual inference is a powerful tool, capable of solving challenging problems in high-profile sectors. To perform counterfactual inference, one requires knowledge of the underlying causal mechanisms. However, causal mechanisms cannot…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-23 Athanasios Vlontzos , Bernhard Kainz , Ciaran M. Gilligan-Lee

Predictive models are being increasingly used to support consequential decision making at the individual level in contexts such as pretrial bail and loan approval. As a result, there is increasing social and legal pressure to provide…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-03-02 Amir-Hossein Karimi , Gilles Barthe , Borja Balle , Isabel Valera

When an image classifier outputs a wrong class label, it can be helpful to see what changes in the image would lead to a correct classification. This is the aim of algorithms generating counterfactual explanations. However, there is no…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-12-01 Benedikt Höltgen , Lisa Schut , Jan M. Brauner , Yarin Gal

There is a broad consensus on the importance of deep learning models in tasks involving complex data. Often, an adequate understanding of these models is required when focusing on the transparency of decisions in human-critical…

We present a novel generative method for producing unseen and plausible counterfactual examples for reinforcement learning (RL) agents based upon outcome variables that characterize agent behavior. Our approach uses a variational…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-07-19 Eric Yeh , Pedro Sequeira , Jesse Hostetler , Melinda Gervasio