Related papers: Neural posterior inference with state-space models…
Multi-scale problems, where variables of interest evolve in different time-scales and live in different state-spaces, can be found in many fields of science. Here, we introduce a new recursive methodology for Bayesian inference that aims at…
In the context of computer models, calibration is the process of estimating unknown simulator parameters from observational data. Calibration is variously referred to as model fitting, parameter estimation/inference, an inverse problem, and…
A promising approach to improve cloud parameterizations within climate models and thus climate projections is to use deep learning in combination with training data from storm-resolving model (SRM) simulations. The ICOsahedral…
The analysis of high-dimensional dynamical systems generally requires the integration of simulation data with experimental measurements. Experimental data often has substantial amounts of measurement noise that compromises the ability to…
This paper addresses the use of experimental data for calibrating a computer model and improving its predictions of the underlying physical system. A global statistical approach is proposed in which the bias between the computer model and…
A sequential estimator based on the Ensemble Kalman Filter for Data Assimilation of fluid flows is presented in this research work. The main feature of this estimator is that the Kalman filter update, which relies on the determination of…
The dynamic, real-time, and accurate inference of model parameters from empirical data is of great importance in many scientific and engineering disciplines that use computational models (such as a digital twin) for the analysis and…
Global ocean models exhibit biases in the mean state and variability, particularly at coarse resolution, where mesoscale eddies are unresolved. To address these biases, parameterization coefficients are typically tuned ad hoc. Here, we…
Integro-difference equation (IDE) models describe the conditional dependence between the spatial process at a future time point and the process at the present time point through an integral operator. Nonlinearity or temporal dependence in…
Sea ice concentration is an important metric used to characterize polar sea ice behavior. Understanding this behavior and accurately representing it is of critical importance for climate science research, and also has important uses in the…
Neural PDE simulators often receive only a single observed field at deployment. In this setting, a field-to-future predictor can collapse distinct latent problem states into the same deterministic interface, losing the ambiguity needed for…
Because of physical assumptions and numerical approximations, low-order models are affected by uncertainties in the state and parameters, and by model biases. Model biases, also known as model errors or systematic errors, are difficult to…
Online joint estimation of unknown parameters and states in a dynamical system with uncertainty quantification is crucial in many applications. For example, digital twins dynamically update their knowledge of model parameters and states to…
Hydrodynamical cosmological simulations are a powerful tool for accurately predicting the properties of the intergalactic medium (IGM) and for producing mock skies that can be compared against observational data. However, the need to…
This paper proposes a physics-guided recurrent neural network model (PGRNN) that combines RNNs and physics-based models to leverage their complementary strengths and improve the modeling of physical processes. Specifically, we show that a…
Wall-cooling effect in hypersonic boundary layers can significantly alter the near-wall turbulence behavior, which is not accurately modeled by traditional RANS turbulence models. To address this shortcoming, this paper presents a…
The representation of nonlinear sub-grid processes, especially clouds, has been a major source of uncertainty in climate models for decades. Cloud-resolving models better represent many of these processes and can now be run globally but…
Data assimilation is the process of estimating the state of a dynamical system over time by combining model predictions with measurements. This task becomes challenging when the system is nonlinear and high-dimensional. To address this,…
Rapid development in numerical modelling of materials and the complexity of new models increases quickly together with their computational demands. Despite the growing performance of modern computers and clusters, calibration of such models…
Satellite dynamics and tracking remain important challenges in the context of space exploration and communication systems. Accurate state estimation is essential to maintain reliable orbital motion and system performance. This paper…