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Statistical methods are developed for analysis of clinical and virus genetics data from phase 3 randomized, placebo-controlled trials of vaccines against novel coronavirus COVID-19. Vaccine efficacy (VE) of a vaccine to prevent COVID-19…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-01-25 Fei Heng , Yanqing Sun , Peter B. Gilbert

In vaccine studies for infectious diseases such as human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), the frequency and type of contacts between study participants and infectious sources are among the most informative risk factors, but are often not…

Applications · Statistics 2012-08-27 Yang Yang , Peter Gilbert , Ira M. Longini, , M. Elizabeth Halloran

Pathogens usually exist in heterogeneous variants, like subtypes and strains. Quantifying treatment effects on the different variants is important for guiding prevention policies and treatment development. Here we ground analyses of…

Applications · Statistics 2024-08-15 Gellert Perenyi , Mats J. Stensrud

Developing accurate and reliable methods to estimate vaccine protection is a key goal in immunology and public health. While several statistical methods have been proposed, their potential inaccuracy in capturing fast intra-seasonal waning…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2022-05-26 Ariel Nikas , Hasan Ahmed , Veronika I. Zarnitsyna

Safe and effective preventive vaccines have the potential to help stem the HIV epidemic. The efficacy of such vaccines is typically measured in randomized, double-blind phase IIb/III trials and described as a reduction in newly acquired HIV…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-10 Yutong Jin , Alex Luedtke , Zoe Moodie , Holly Janes , David Benkeser

In vaccine development, the temporal profiles of relative abundance of subtypes of immune cells (T-cells) is key to understanding vaccine efficacy. Complex and expensive experimental studies generate very sparse time series data on this…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-06-29 Fernando V. Bonassi , Cliburn Chan , Mike West

Understanding waning of vaccine-induced protection is important for both immunology and public health. Population heterogeneities in underlying (pre-vaccination) susceptibility and vaccine response can cause measured vaccine effectiveness…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2023-08-02 Ariel Nikas , Hasan Ahmed , Veronika I. Zarnitsyna

Cross-sectional HIV incidence estimation leverages recency test results to determine the HIV incidence of a population of interest, where recency test uses biomarker profiles to infer whether an HIV-positive individual was "recently"…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-21 Qi Wang , Ann Duerr , Fei Gao

The diversity of virus populations within single infected hosts presents a major difficulty for the natural immune response as well as for vaccine design and antiviral drug therapy. Recently developed pyrophosphate based sequencing…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2015-05-13 Nicholas Eriksson , Lior Pachter , Yumi Mitsuya , Soo-Yon Rhee , Chunlin Wang , Baback Gharizadeh , Mostafa Ronaghi , Robert W. Shafer , Niko Beerenwinkel

Real world data is an increasingly utilized resource for post-market monitoring of vaccines and provides insight into real world effectiveness. However, outside of the setting of a clinical trial, heterogeneous mechanisms may drive observed…

Understanding how vaccine effectiveness (VE) changes over time can provide evidence-based guidance for public health decision making. While commonly reported by practitioners, time-varying VE estimates obtained using Cox regression are vul-…

How to allocate vaccines over heterogeneous individuals is one of the important policy decisions in pandemic times. This paper develops a procedure to estimate an individualized vaccine allocation policy under limited supply, exploiting…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-10-25 Toru Kitagawa , Guanyi Wang

We study a susceptible-vaccinated--infected--recovered (SVIR) epidemic-spreading model with diversity of infection rate of the individuals. By means of analytical arguments as well as extensive computer simulations, we demonstrate that the…

Physics and Society · Physics 2013-12-05 Chao-Ran Cai , Zhi-Xi wu , Jian-Yue Guan

We address discrete-marks survival analysis, also known as categorical sieve analysis, for a setting of a randomized placebo-controlled treatment intervention to prevent infection by a pathogen to which multiple exposures are possible, with…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-01-06 Paul T. Edlefsen

Immunogenicity prediction is a central topic in reverse vaccinology for finding candidate vaccines that can trigger protective immune responses. Existing approaches typically rely on highly compressed features and simple model…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-20 Song Li , Yang Tan , Song Ke , Liang Hong , Bingxin Zhou

Important objectives in cancer research are the prediction of a patient's risk based on molecular measurements such as gene expression data and the identification of new prognostic biomarkers (e.g. genes). In clinical practice, this is…

Applications · Statistics 2020-04-17 Katrin Madjar , Manuela Zucknick , Katja Ickstadt , Jörg Rahnenführer

Traditional measures of vaccine efficacy (VE) are inherently asymmetric, constrained above by $1$ but unbounded below. As a result, VE estimates and corresponding confidence intervals can extend far below zero, making interpretation…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-09 Lucy D'Agostino McGowan , Sarah C. Lotspeich , Michael G. Hudgens

Cytotoxic T-lymphocytes (CTLs) recognize viral protein fragments displayed by major histocompatibility complex (MHC) molecules on the surface of virally infected cells and generate an anti-viral response that can kill the infected cells.…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2014-03-25 Taylor A. Kessinger , Alan S. Perelson , Richard A. Neher

Analyses of adverse events (AEs) are an important aspect of the evaluation of experimental therapies. The SAVVY (Survival analysis for AdVerse events with Varying follow-up times) project aims to improve the analyses of AE data in clinical…

Wastewater-based genomic surveillance has emerged as a powerful tool for population-level viral monitoring, offering comprehensive insights into circulating viral variants across entire communities. However, this approach faces significant…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-04 Adele Chinda , Richmond Azumah , Hemanth Demakethepalli Venkateswara
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