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This paper focuses on the computational complexity of computing empirical plug-in estimates for causal effect queries. Given a causal graph and observational data, any identifiable causal query can be estimated from an expression over the…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-11-18 Rina Dechter , Annie Raichev , Alexander Ihler , Jin Tian

In many applications, researchers are interested in the direct and indirect causal effects of a treatment or exposure on an outcome of interest. Mediation analysis offers a rigorous framework for identifying and estimating these causal…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-10-08 Yizhen Xu , Numair Sani , AmirEmad Ghassami , Ilya Shpitser

Estimating causal effects from observational network data is a significant but challenging problem. Existing works in causal inference for observational network data lack an analysis of the generalization bound, which can theoretically…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-09 Ruichu Cai , Zeqin Yang , Weilin Chen , Yuguang Yan , Zhifeng Hao

Graphical causal models led to the development of complete non-parametric identification theory in arbitrary structured systems, and general approaches to efficient inference. Nevertheless, graphical approaches to causal inference have not…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-02 AmirEmad Ghassami , Ilya Shpitser

Claiming causal inferences in network settings necessitates careful consideration of the often complex dependency between outcomes for actors. Of particular importance are treatment spillover or outcome interference effects. We consider…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-18 Duncan A. Clark , Mark S. Handcock

Bridging the gap between internal and external validity is crucial for heterogeneous treatment effect estimation. Randomised controlled trials (RCTs), favoured for their internal validity due to randomisation, often encounter challenges in…

Causal mediation analysis examines causal pathways linking exposures to disease. The estimation of interventional effects, which are mediation estimands that overcome certain identifiability problems of natural effects, has been advanced…

Causal inference in a nonlinear system of multivariate timeseries is instrumental in disentangling the intricate web of relationships among variables, enabling us to make more accurate predictions and gain deeper insights into real-world…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-17 Wasim Ahmad , Maha Shadaydeh , Joachim Denzler

Recent approaches to causal inference have focused on causal effects defined as contrasts between the distribution of counterfactual outcomes under hypothetical interventions on the nodes of a graphical model. In this article we develop…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-04-26 Iván Díaz

Accurate estimation of treatment effects is essential for decision-making across various scientific fields. This task, however, becomes challenging in areas like social sciences and online marketplaces, where treating one experimental unit…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-04 Mohsen Bayati , Yuwei Luo , William Overman , Sadegh Shirani , Ruoxuan Xiong

The increasing availability of interventional data offers new opportunities for causal discovery, with gene perturbation studies providing a prominent example. Such data are typically count-valued and subject to substantial measurement…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-30 Yijiao Zhang , Hongzhe Li

We propose a new nonparametric modeling framework for causal inference when outcomes depend on how agents are linked in a social or economic network. Such network interference describes a large literature on treatment spillovers, social…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-03-25 Eric Auerbach , Hongchang Guo , Max Tabord-Meehan

Causal relationships among variables are commonly represented via directed acyclic graphs. There are many methods in the literature to quantify the strength of arrows in a causal acyclic graph. These methods, however, have undesirable…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-10-08 Yue Wang , Linbo Wang

Causal effect estimation in networked systems is central to data-driven decision making. In such settings, interventions on one unit can spill over to others, and in complex physical or social systems, the interaction pathways driving these…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-11-27 Sadegh Shirani , Mohsen Bayati

Through recognizing causal subgraphs, causal graph learning (CGL) has risen to be a promising approach for improving the generalizability of graph neural networks under out-of-distribution (OOD) scenarios. However, the empirical successes…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-02 Yujia Yin , Tianyi Qu , Zihao Wang , Yifan Chen

The bulk of causal inference studies rule out the presence of interference between units. However, in many real-world scenarios, units are interconnected by social, physical, or virtual ties, and the effect of the treatment can spill from…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-03 Falco J. Bargagli-Stoffi , Costanza Tortù , Laura Forastiere

Faced with data-driven policies, individuals will manipulate their features to obtain favorable decisions. While earlier works cast these manipulations as undesirable gaming, recent works have adopted a more nuanced causal framing in which…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-22 Tom Yan , Shantanu Gupta , Zachary Lipton

Estimating causal effects has become an integral part of most applied fields. In this work we consider the violation of the classical no-interference assumption with units connected by a network. For tractability, we consider a known…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-03-05 Alexandre Belloni , Fei Fang , Alexander Volfovsky

Bipartite experiments are a recent object of study in causal inference, whereby treatment is applied to one set of units and outcomes of interest are measured on a different set of units. These experiments are particularly useful in…

Randomized experiments on a network often involve interference between connected units; i.e., a situation in which an individual's treatment can affect the response of another individual. Current approaches to deal with interference, in…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-05-17 Guillaume Basse , Edoardo Airoldi
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