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We introduce a framework for quantifying propagation of uncertainty arising in a dynamic setting. Specifically, we define dynamic uncertainty sets designed explicitly for discrete stochastic processes over a finite time horizon. These…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2024-02-05 Marlon Moresco , Mélina Mailhot , Silvana M. Pesenti

Sequential decision making using Markov Decision Process underpins many realworld applications. Both model-based and model free methods have achieved strong results in these settings. However, real-world tasks must balance reward…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-01 Janaka Chathuranga Brahmanage , Akshat Kumar

As autonomous systems become more complex and integral in our society, the need to accurately model and safely control these systems has increased significantly. In the past decade, there has been tremendous success in using deep learning…

Robotics · Computer Science 2024-09-10 Hao Wang , Javier Borquez , Somil Bansal

Stochastic multi-agent systems are a central modeling framework for autonomous controllers, communication protocols, and cyber-physical infrastructures. In many such systems, however, transition probabilities are only estimated from data…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2026-02-17 Raphaël Berthon , Joost-Pieter Katoen , Munyque Mittelmann , Aniello Murano

We present a model predictive control (MPC) framework for nonlinear stochastic systems that ensures safety guarantee with high probability. Unlike most existing stochastic MPC schemes, our method adopts a set-erosion that converts the…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-12-16 Zishun Liu , Liqian Ma , Yongxin Chen

Continuous time financial market models are often motivated as scaling limits of discrete time models. The objective of this paper is to establish such a connection for a robust framework. More specifically, we consider discrete time models…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-10-17 David Criens

We present an optimization-based framework for robust permissive synthesis for Interval Markov Decision Processes (IMDPs), motivated by robotic decision-making under transition uncertainty. In many robotic systems, model inaccuracies and…

Robotics · Computer Science 2026-03-17 Khang Vo Huynh , David Parker , Lu Feng

Many real-world domains require safe decision making in uncertain environments. In this work, we introduce a deep reinforcement learning framework for approaching this important problem. We consider a distribution over transition models,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-27 James Queeney , Mouhacine Benosman

This paper studies a data-driven predictive control for a class of control-affine systems which is subject to uncertainty. With the accessibility to finite sample measurements of the uncertain variables, we aim to find controls which are…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-05-03 Dan Li , Dariush Fooladivanda , Sonia Martinez

Continuous-time Markov decision processes are an important class of models in a wide range of applications, ranging from cyber-physical systems to synthetic biology. A central problem is how to devise a policy to control the system in order…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2016-06-01 Ezio Bartocci , Luca Bortolussi , Tomǎš Brázdil , Dimitrios Milios , Guido Sanguinetti

This paper introduces a novel methodology for the identification of switching dynamics for switched autoregressive linear models. Switching behavior is assumed to follow a Markov model. The system's outputs are contaminated by possibly…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2019-03-28 Sarah Hojjatinia , Constantino M. Lagoa

Uncertainties influencing the dynamical systems pose a significant challenge in estimating the achievable performance of a controller aiming to control such uncertain systems. When the uncertainties are of stochastic nature, obtaining hard…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-07-22 Venkatraman Renganathan

Switching dynamical systems provide a powerful, interpretable modeling framework for inference in time-series data in, e.g., the natural sciences or engineering applications. Since many areas, such as biology or discrete-event systems, are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-09-30 Lukas Köhs , Bastian Alt , Heinz Koeppl

This paper considers robust Markov decision processes under parametric transition distributions. We assume that the true transition distribution is uniquely specified by some parametric distribution, and explicitly enforce that the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-11-24 Ben Black , Trivikram Dokka , Christopher Kirkbride

As the use of autonomous robots expands in tasks that are complex and challenging to model, the demand for robust data-driven control methods that can certify safety and stability in uncertain conditions is increasing. However, the…

Combining efficient and safe control for safety-critical systems is challenging. Robust methods may be overly conservative, whereas probabilistic controllers require a trade-off between efficiency and safety. In this work, we propose a…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-09-16 Tim Brüdigam , Robert Jacumet , Dirk Wollherr , Marion Leibold

This paper builds Wasserstein ambiguity sets for the unknown probability distribution of dynamic random variables leveraging noisy partial-state observations. The constructed ambiguity sets contain the true distribution of the data with…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-07-21 Dimitris Boskos , Jorge Cortés , Sonia Martínez

We propose a robust data-driven output feedback control algorithm that explicitly incorporates inherent finite-sample model estimate uncertainties into the control design. The algorithm has three components: (1) a subspace identification…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-05-12 Benjamin Gravell , Iman Shames , Tyler Summers

We consider the problem of approximating the reachability probabilities in Markov decision processes (MDP) with uncountable (continuous) state and action spaces. While there are algorithms that, for special classes of such MDP, provide a…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-07-13 Kush Grover , Jan Křetínský , Tobias Meggendorfer , Maximilian Weininger

This paper investigates the problem of safety certification for black-box discrete-time stochastic systems, where both the system dynamics and disturbance distributions are unknown, and only sampled data are available. Under such limited…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-02-17 Taoran Wu , Dominik Wagner , Jingduo Pan , Luke Ong , Arvind Easwaran , Bai Xue