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Recent studies exploiting city-level time series have shown that, around the world, several crimes declined after COVID-19 containment policies have been put in place. Using data at the community-level in Chicago, this work aims to advance…

General Economics · Economics 2020-11-12 Gian Maria Campedelli , Serena Favarin , Alberto Aziani , Alex R. Piquero

Crime prediction plays an impactful role in enhancing public security and sustainable development of urban. With recent advances in data collection and integration technologies, a large amount of urban data with rich crime-related…

Applications · Statistics 2020-01-23 Xiangyu Zhao , Jiliang Tang

Hot-spot-based policing programs aim to deter crime through increased proactive patrols at high-crime locations. While most hot spot programs target easily identified chronic hot spots, we introduce models for predicting temporary hot spots…

Applications · Statistics 2020-11-13 Dylan J. Fitzpatrick , Wilpen L. Gorr , Daniel B. Neill

There is significant interest in being able to predict where crimes will happen, for example to aid in the efficient tasking of police and other protective measures. We aim to model both the temporal and spatial dependencies often exhibited…

Applications · Statistics 2013-04-23 Sivan Aldor-Noiman , Lawrence D. Brown , Emily B. Fox , Robert A. Stine

Predicting crime hotspots in a city is a complex and critical task with significant societal implications. Numerous spatiotemporal correlations and irregularities pose substantial challenges to this endeavor. Existing methods commonly…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-05 Jiahui Jin , Yi Hong , Guandong Xu , Jinghui Zhang , Jun Tang , Hancheng Wang

It is quite evident that majority of the population lives in urban area today than in any time of the human history. This trend seems to increase in coming years. A study [5] says that nearly 80.7% of total population in USA stays in urban…

Applications · Statistics 2018-10-31 Saroj Kumar Dash , Ilya Safro , Ravisutha Sakrepatna Srinivasamurthy

Accurate estimation of the change in crime over time is a critical first step towards better understanding of public safety in large urban environments. Bayesian hierarchical modeling is a natural way to study spatial variation in urban…

Applications · Statistics 2022-06-22 Cecilia Balocchi , Sameer K. Deshpande , Edward I. George , Shane T. Jensen

In the aim to support London's safer recovery from the pandemic by improving road safety intelligently, this study investigated the spatiotemporal patterns of age-involved car crashes and affecting factors, upon answering two main research…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2022-08-02 Kejiang Qian , Yijing Li

The spatial dynamics of criminal activities has been recently studied through statistical physics methods; however, models and results have been focused on local scales (city level) and much less is known about these patterns at larger…

Physics and Society · Physics 2015-10-14 L. G. A. Alves , E. K. Lenzi , R. S. Mendes , H. V. Ribeiro

We revisit the longstanding question of how physical structures in urban landscapes influence crime. Leveraging machine learning-based matching techniques to control for demographic composition, we estimate the effects of several types of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-23 Ziyao Cui , Erick Jiang , Nicholas Sortisio , Haiyan Wang , Eric Chen , Cynthia Rudin

This paper focuses on finding spatial and temporal criminal hotspots. It analyses two different real-world crimes datasets for Denver, CO and Los Angeles, CA and provides a comparison between the two datasets through a statistical analysis…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2015-08-11 Tahani Almanie , Rsha Mirza , Elizabeth Lor

Urban safety and security play a crucial role in improving life quality of citizen and the sustainable development of urban. Traditional urban crime research focused on leveraging demographic data, which is insufficient to capture the…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2018-05-07 Xiangyu Zhao , Jiliang Tang

Philadelphia's problem with high crime rates continues to be exacerbated as Philadelphia's residents, community leaders, and law enforcement officials struggle to address the root causes of the problem and make the city safer for all. In…

Applications · Statistics 2023-06-29 Ishan S. Khare , Tarun K. Martheswaran , Rahul K. Thomas , Aditya Bora

The purpose of this study was to determine the association of location and types of crimes in the Philippines and understand the impact of COVID-19 lockdowns by comparing the crime incidence and associations before and during the pandemic.…

Applications · Statistics 2023-02-10 Liene Leikuma-Rimicane , Roel F. Ceballos , Milton Norman Medina

Police departments around the world have been experimenting with forms of place-based data-driven proactive policing for over two decades. Modern incarnations of such systems are commonly known as hot spot predictive policing. These systems…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2021-02-08 Nil-Jana Akpinar , Maria De-Arteaga , Alexandra Chouldechova

We use high resolution data to investigate the association between crime incidence and proximity to different types of public schools over the past fifteen years in the city of Philadelphia. We employ two statistical methods, regression…

Applications · Statistics 2023-12-29 Leonardo de Castro Harth , Bangxi Xiao , Shane T. Jensen

Objectives: To develop a deep learning framework to evaluate if and how incorporating micro-level mobility features, alongside historical crime and sociodemographic data, enhances predictive performance in crime forecasting at fine-grained…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-26 Ariadna Albors Zumel , Michele Tizzoni , Gian Maria Campedelli

Understanding the relationship between change in crime over time and the geography of urban areas is an important problem for urban planning. Accurate estimation of changing crime rates throughout a city would aid law enforcement as well as…

Applications · Statistics 2019-10-21 Cecilia Balocchi , Shane T. Jensen

Objectives: We introduce a new method for reducing crime in hot spots and across cities through ridge estimation. In doing so, our goal is to explore the application of density ridges to hot spots and patrol optimization, and to contribute…

Applications · Statistics 2022-11-16 Ben Moews , Jaime R. Argueta , Antonia Gieschen

Mapping of spatial hotspots, i.e., regions with significantly higher rates of generating cases of certain events (e.g., disease or crime cases), is an important task in diverse societal domains, including public health, public safety,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-10-12 Yiqun Xie , Shashi Shekhar , Yan Li
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