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Surrogates in lieu of expensive-to-evaluate performance functions can accelerate the reliability analysis greatly. This paper proposes a new two-stage framework for surrogate-aided reliability analysis named Surrogates for Importance…

Other Statistics · Statistics 2020-01-29 Wang-Sheng Liu , Sai Hung Cheung , Wen-Jun Cao

Offline optimization has recently emerged as an increasingly popular approach to mitigate the prohibitively expensive cost of online experimentation. The key idea is to learn a surrogate of the black-box function that underlines the target…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-07 Manh Cuong Dao , Phi Le Nguyen , Thao Nguyen Truong , Trong Nghia Hoang

Patient-reported outcome (PRO) measures are increasingly collected as a means of measuring healthcare quality and value. The capability to predict such measures enables patient-provider shared decision making and the delivery of…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-03-01 Jaeyoung Park , Muxuan Liang , Ying-Qi Zhao , Xiang Zhong

As researchers increasingly rely on machine learning models and LLMs to annotate unstructured data, such as texts or images, various approaches have been proposed to correct bias in downstream statistical analysis. However, existing methods…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-29 Kentaro Nakamura

Inference for models with recursively defined likelihoods is computationally demanding, limiting scalability to large datasets. We propose a stabilised weighted subsampling methodology for accelerated inference based on an unbiased…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-14 Matias Quiroz , Aishwarya Bhaskaran , Zixuan Wang , Thomas Goodwin

Penalized estimation methods for diffusion processes and dependent data have recently gained significant attention due to their effectiveness in handling high-dimensional stochastic systems. In this work, we introduce an adaptive…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-12-24 Alessandro De Gregorio , Dario Frisardi , Francesco Iafrate , Stefano Iacus

It has been shown that cooperative coevolution (CC) can effectively deal with large scale optimization problems (LSOPs) through a divide-and-conquer strategy. However, its performance is severely restricted by the current…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2018-03-05 Bei Pang , Zhigang Ren , Yongsheng Liang , An Chen

We present an adaptive approach to the construction of Gaussian process surrogates for Bayesian inference with expensive-to-evaluate forward models. Our method relies on the fully Bayesian approach to training Gaussian process models and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-10-01 Timur Takhtaganov , Juliane Müller

As they have a vital effect on social decision makings, AI algorithms should be not only accurate and but also fair. Among various algorithms for fairness AI, learning a prediction model by minimizing the empirical risk (e.g.,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-26 Kunwoong Kim , Ilsang Ohn , Sara Kim , Yongdai Kim

In a supervised online setting, quantifying uncertainty has been proposed in the seminal work of \cite{gibbs2021adaptive}. For any given point-prediction algorithm, their method (ACI) produces a conformal prediction set with an average…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-11-24 Pierre Humbert , Ulysse Gazin , Ruth Heller , Etienne Roquain

Machine learning models of accelerator systems (`surrogate models') are able to provide fast, accurate predictions of accelerator physics phenomena. However, approaches to date typically do not include measured input diagnostics, such as…

Accelerator Physics · Physics 2021-04-06 Lipi Gupta , Auralee Edelen , Nicole Neveu , Aashwin Mishra , Christopher Mayes , Young-Kee Kim

In the continual effort to improve product quality and decrease operations costs, computational modeling is increasingly being deployed to determine feasibility of product designs or configurations. Surrogate modeling of these computer…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-11-10 Nathan Wycoff , Mickaël Binois , Robert B. Gramacy

Many estimators of the average effect of a treatment on an outcome require estimation of the propensity score, the outcome regression, or both. It is often beneficial to utilize flexible techniques such as semiparametric regression or…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-05-14 Cheng Ju , David Benkeser , Mark J. van der Laan

Delayed primary outcomes and administratively censored follow-up create a general semiparametric estimation problem: the target causal functional depends on an endpoint observed only for a shrinking subset of units at analysis time, while…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-02 Lin Li , Tuo Lin , Yiwen Chen , Xin M. Tu

Surrogate endpoints are used in place of long-term outcomes in randomized experiments when observing the real outcome for a large enough cohort is prohibitively expensive or impractical. A short-term surrogate is good if the result of an…

In many randomized trials, outcomes such as essays or open-ended responses must be manually scored as a preliminary step to impact analysis, a process that is costly and limiting. Model-assisted estimation offers a way to combine surrogate…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-16 Reagan Mozer , Nicole E. Pashley , Luke Miratrix

The increasing use of stochastic models for describing complex phenomena warrants surrogate models that capture the reference model characteristics at a fraction of the computational cost, foregoing potentially expensive Monte Carlo…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-10 Neil Kichler , Sher Afghan , Uwe Naumann

Optimizing the reliability and the robustness of a design is important but often unaffordable due to high sample requirements. Surrogate models based on statistical and machine learning methods are used to increase the sample efficiency.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-05-06 Can Bogoclu , Dirk Roos , Tamara Nestorović

Stepped-wedge designs are increasingly used in randomized experiments to accommodate logistical and ethical constraints by staggering treatment roll-out over time. Despite their popularity, existing analytical methods largely rely on…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-12 Liangbo Lyu , Bingkai Wang

Recently, a surrogate model was proposed that employs a factorization machine to approximate the underlying input-output mapping of the original system, with quantum annealing used to optimize the resulting surrogate function. Inspired by…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-21 Anbang Wang , Dunbo Cai , Yu Zhang , Yangqing Huang , Xiangyang Feng , Zhihong Zhang