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Global medium-range weather forecasts suffer occasional failures, often linked to tropical cyclones (TCs). We investigate TC influences on extratropical predictability by comparing forecasts from a physics-based model (ECMWF-IFS) and an…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-05-11 Gan Zhang

Tropical cyclones are known to expand to an equilibrium size on the $f$-plane, but the expansion process is not understood. In this study, an analytical model for tropical cyclone size expansion on the $f$-plane is proposed. Conceptually,…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-10-23 Danyang Wang , Dan Chavas

An important process in tropical cyclone formation is the development of a deep, warm core, which corresponds to the growth of a barotropic cyclone. Persistent convective activity is known to be crucial for the growth of barotropic…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-11-26 Hao Fu

The Pattern Effect describes the dependence of top-of-atmosphere radiation anomalies on changes in the pattern of sea surface temperatures. The emerging consensus in the field explains the impact of Pacific warm pool temperature on…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-03-26 Cristian Proistosescu , Pappu Paul , Nicholas J. Lutsko , Andrew I. L. Williams , Malte F. Stuecker

Anthropogenic influences have been linked to tropical cyclone (TC) poleward migration, TC extreme precipitation, and an increased proportion of major hurricanes [1, 2, 3, 4]. Understanding past TC trends and variability is critical for…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-02-02 Buo-Fu Chen , Boyo Chen , Chun-Min Hsiao , Hsu-Feng Teng , Cheng-Shang Lee , Hung-Chi Kuo

Tropical convective clouds evolve over a wide range of temporal and spatial scales, and this makes them difficult to simulate numerically. Here, we propose that their statistical properties can be derived within a simplified…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2019-01-09 Timothy J. Garrett , Ian B. Glenn , Steven K. Krueger

Mesoscale convective systems MCSs play a central role in tropical rainfall and are closely linked to extreme precipitation and large scale variability. However, a quantitative understanding of their environmental controls remains…

Computational Physics · Physics 2026-04-24 Huaiping Wang , Qiu Yang

Recent work found evidence using aquaplanet experiments that tropical cyclone size on Earth is limited by the Rhines scale, which depends on the planetary vorticity gradient, $\beta$. This study aims to examine how the Rhines scale limits…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2022-09-14 Kuan-Yu Lu , Daniel Chavas

Africa is the primary source of cyclonic vortices over the tropical Atlantic. Over both land and sea, these vortices are entwined with deep convective activity, with the majority being African Easterly Wave troughs. Their convective…

In contrast to prevailing knowledge, Ram\'irez Reyes and Yang (2021) showed that tropical cyclones (TCs) can form spontaneously without moisture-radiation and surface-flux feedbacks in a cloud-resolving model (CRM) simulation. Here we ask,…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-03-01 Argel Ramírez Reyes , Da Yang

We investigate the effect of turbulence on the combined condensational and collisional growth of cloud droplets by means of high resolution direct numerical simulations of turbulence and a superparticle approximation for droplet dynamics…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2020-01-29 Xiang-Yu Li , Axel Brandenburg , Gunilla Svensson , Nils Haugen , Bernhard Mehlig , Igor Rogachevskii

The influence of deep convection on water vapor in the Tropical Tropopause Layer (TTL), the region just below the high ($\sim$18 km), cold tropical tropopause, remains an outstanding question in atmospheric science. Moisture transport to…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2016-12-07 Maximilien Bolot , Bernard Legras , Kaley A. Walker , Christopher D. Boone , Peter Bernath , William G. Read , Elisabeth J. Moyer

Marine shallow cumulus clouds have long caused large uncertainty in climate projections. These clouds frequently organize into mesoscale (10-500 km) structures, through two processes that couple the clouds to shallow mesoscale circulations:…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-06-03 Pouriya Alinaghi , Martin Janssens , Fredrik Jansson

We explore the impact of electron thermal conduction on the evolution of radiatively-cooled cold clouds embedded in flows of hot and fast material, as occur in outflowing galaxies. Performing a parameter study of three-dimensional adaptive…

Astrophysics of Galaxies · Physics 2016-05-25 Marcus Brüggen , Evan Scannapieco

Tropical cyclones (TC) are often generated from pre-existing ``seed" vortices. Seeds with higher persistence might have a higher chance to undergo TC genesis. What controls seed persistence remains unclear. This study proposes that…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-09-19 Kuan-Yu Lu , Daniel R. Chavas , Danyang Wang

Understanding the growth of the cores of giant planets is a difficult problem. Recently, Lambrechts and Johansen (2012; LJ12) proposed a new model in which the cores grow by the accretion of pebble-size objects, as the latter drift towards…

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics · Physics 2015-06-11 Alessandro Morbidelli , David Nesvorny

Traditional methods for enhancing tropical cyclone (TC) intensity from climate model outputs or projections have primarily relied on either dynamical or statistical downscaling. With recent advances in deep learning (DL) techniques, a…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-11-10 Minh-Khanh Luong , Chanh Kieu

Our collective understanding of azimuthally-asymmetric features within the coherent structure of a tropical cyclone (TC) continues to improve with the availability of more detailed observations and high-resolution model outputs. However, a…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2020-02-19 Saiprasanth Bhalachandran , D. R. Chavas , F. D. Marks , S. Dubey , A. Shreevastava , T. N. Krishnamurti

Accurate tropical cyclone (TC) track prediction is crucial for mitigating the catastrophic impacts of TCs on human life and the environment. Despite decades of research on tropical cyclone (TC) track prediction, large errors known as track…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-10-01 Haoran Zhao , Shaoqing Zhang , Yang Gao , Lixin Wu , Yihan Cao , Wenju Cai , Bin Wang , L. Ruby Leung , Zebin Lu , Zhong Zhong , Xiaolin Yu , Mingkui Li , Chenyu Zhu

Many phenomenologically successful cosmological galaxy formation simulations employ kinetic winds to model galactic outflows, a crucial ingredient in obtaining predictions that agree with various observations. Yet systematic studies of how…

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