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This paper addresses the possibility of using robust control theory for preventing earthquakes through fluid injections in the earth's crust. The designed robust controllers drive aseismically a fault system to a new equilibrium point of…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-12-10 Diego Gutiérrez-Oribio , Georgios Tzortzopoulos , Ioannis Stefanou , Franck Plestan

The evaluation of the $b$ value of the Gutenberg-Richter (GR) law, for a sample composed of $n$ earthquakes, presents a systematic positive bias $\delta b$ which is proportional to $1/n$, as already observed by Ogata \& Yamashina (1986). In…

Geophysics · Physics 2023-07-10 Cataldo Godano , Giuseppe Petrillo , Eugenio Lippiello

We study earthquake interval time statistics, paying special attention to inter-occurrence times in the two-dimensional (2D) stick-slip (block-slider) model. Inter-occurrence times are the time interval between successive earthquakes on all…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2017-08-23 Tomohiro Hasumi , Yoji Aizawa

The quality of earthquake prediction is usually characterized by a two-dimensional diagram 'n' vs. 'tau', where 'n' is the rate of failures-to-predict and 'tau' is a characteristic of space- time alarm. Unlike the time prediction case, the…

Geophysics · Physics 2008-07-18 G. Molchan

Earthquake nowcasting has been proposed as a means of tracking the change in large earthquake potential in a seismically active area. The method was developed using observable seismic data, in which probabilities of future large earthquakes…

Geophysics · Physics 2023-10-24 Ian Baughman , John B Rundle , Tianjin Zhang

Earthquake forecasting and prediction have long and in some cases sordid histories but recent work has rekindled interest based on advances in early warning, hazard assessment for induced seismicity and successful prediction of laboratory…

Geophysics · Physics 2022-10-13 Laura Laurenti , Elisa Tinti , Fabio Galasso , Luca Franco , Chris Marone

Without rigorous attention to the completeness of earthquake catalogs, claims of new discoveries or forecasting skills cannot be deemed credible. Therefore, estimating the completeness magnitude (Mc) is a critical step. Among various…

Geophysics · Physics 2025-09-12 Xinyi Wang , Jiawei Li , Ao Feng , Didier Sornette

This paper discusses resonance effects to advance a classical earthquake model, namely the celebrated M8 global test algorithm. This algorithmgives high confidence levels for prediction of Time Intervals of Increased Probability (TIP) of an…

Spectral Theory · Mathematics 2018-11-05 Victor Flambaum , Gaven Martin , Boris Pavlov

After a large earthquake, the likelihood of successive strong aftershocks needs to be estimated. Exploiting similarities with critical phenomena, we introduce a scaling law for the decay in time following a main shock of the expected number…

Other Condensed Matter · Physics 2007-05-23 Stefano Lise , Maya Paczuski , Attilio Stella

The paper by Taroni et al. (2016) considers results of forward prediction of Italian strong earthquakes by CN algorithm with the declared intent of providing "a careful assessment of CN prediction performances... using standard testing…

Geophysics · Physics 2017-02-07 G. Molchan , A. Peresan , G. F. Panza , L. Romashkova , V. Kossobokov

In this paper we develop an understanding of the proper time of the Tohoku earthquake source. The paper is dedicated to the 120th anniversary of Einstein's theory of relativity, but the dedication is symbolic, since we are investigating a…

Geophysics · Physics 2025-09-08 A. V. Guglielmi , O. D. Zotov

We describe systematic ranging, an orbit determination technique especially suitable to assess the near-term Earth impact hazard posed by newly discovered asteroids. For these late warning cases, the time interval covered by the…

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics · Physics 2015-07-15 D. Farnocchia , S. R. Chesley , M. Micheli

Point processes have been dominant in modeling the evolution of seismicity for decades, with the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model being most popular. Recent advances in machine learning have constructed highly flexible point…

Geophysics · Physics 2023-10-04 Samuel Stockman , Daniel J. Lawson , Maximilian J. Werner

The $b$-value in earthquake magnitude-frequency distribution quantifies the relative frequency of large versus small earthquakes. Monitoring its evolution could provide fundamental insights into temporal variations of stress on different…

Geophysics · Physics 2023-06-19 Eugenio Lippiello , Giuseppe Petrillo

Spatiotemporal correlations of the two-dimensional spring-block (Burridge-Knopoff) models of earthquakes with the long-range inter-block interactions are extensively studied by means of numerical computer simulations. The long-range…

Other Condensed Matter · Physics 2009-11-13 Takahiro Mori , Hikaru Kawamura

We propose that the widely observed and universal Gutenberg-Richter relation is a mathematical consequence of the critical branching nature of earthquake process in a brittle fracture environment. These arguments, though preliminary, are…

Geophysics · Physics 2015-03-13 Yan Y. Kagan

Catastrophes of all kinds can be roughly defined as short duration-large amplitude events following and followed by long periods of "ripening". Major earthquakes surely belong to the class of 'catastrophic' events. Because of the space-time…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2015-06-04 Randall D. Peters , Martine Le Berre , Yves Pomeau

Earth observation resources are becoming increasingly indispensable in disaster relief, damage assessment and related domains. Many unpredicted factors, such as the change of observation task requirements, to the occurring of bad weather…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-06-10 Baoju Liu , Min Deng , Guohua Wu , Xinyu Pei , Haifeng Li , Witold Pedrycz

We develop a new method for the statistical esitmation of the tail of the distribution of earthquake sizes recorded in the Worldwide Harvard catalog of seismic moments converted to mW-magnitudes (1977-2004 and 1977-2006). We show that using…

Geophysics · Physics 2009-11-13 V. F. Pisarenko , A. Sornette , D. Sornette , M. V. Rodkin

The imminent WHEN earthquake predictions are based on the correlation between geomagnetic quakes and the incoming minimum (or maximum) of tidal gravitational potential. The probability time window for the incoming earthquake is for the…

Classical Physics · Physics 2007-05-23 S. Cht. Mavrodiev , L. Pekevski