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We derive a novel, provably robust, and closed-form Bayesian update rule for online filtering in state-space models in the presence of outliers and misspecified measurement models. Our method combines generalised Bayesian inference with…

Bayesian learning is a powerful learning framework which combines the external information of the data (background information) with the internal information (training data) in a logically consistent way in inference and prediction. By…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-11 Erdong Guo , David Draper

We propose a general method to carry out a valid Bayesian analysis of a finite-dimensional `targeted' parameter in the presence of a finite-dimensional nuisance parameter. We apply our methods to causal inference based on estimating…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-03 Magid Sabbagh , David A. Stephens

In practice, network applications have to deal with failing nodes, malicious attacks, or, somehow, nodes facing highly corrupted data --- generally classified as outliers. This calls for robust, uncomplicated, and efficient methods. We…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2014-10-10 Cláudia Soares , João Gomes

There has been significant progress in Bayesian inference based on sparsity-inducing (e.g., spike-and-slab and horseshoe-type) priors for high-dimensional regression models. The resulting posteriors, however, in general do not possess…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-12-11 Qihui Chen , Zheng Fang , Ruixuan Liu

Current methods for learning graphical models with latent variables and a fixed structure estimate optimal values for the model parameters. Whereas this approach usually produces overfitting and suboptimal generalization performance,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2013-01-30 Hagai Attias

Robust density estimation refers to the consistent estimation of the density function even when the data is contaminated by outliers. We find that existing forest density estimation at a certain point is inherently resistant to the outliers…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-01-28 Hongwei Wen , Annika Betken , Tao Huang

As the costs of sensors and associated IT infrastructure decreases - as exemplified by the Internet of Things - increasing volumes of observational data are becoming available for use by environmental scientists. However, as the number of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-01-26 Charlie Kirkwood , Theo Economou , Henry Odbert , Nicolas Pugeault

Density-power-based divergences are known to provide robust inference procedures against outliers, and their extensions have been widely studied. A characteristic of successful divergences is that the estimation problem can be reduced to…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2025-02-03 Masahiro Kobayashi

Ordinary differential equations (ODEs) are used to model dynamic systems appearing in engineering, physics, biomedical sciences and many other fields. These equations contain unknown parameters, say $\theta$ of physical significance which…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-03-05 Prithwish Bhaumik , Subhashis Ghosal

Distribution regression has recently attracted much interest as a generic solution to the problem of supervised learning where labels are available at the group level, rather than at the individual level. Current approaches, however, do not…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-01-18 Ho Chung Leon Law , Danica J. Sutherland , Dino Sejdinovic , Seth Flaxman

We consider state estimation for networked systems where measurements from sensor nodes are contaminated by outliers. A new hierarchical measurement model is formulated for outlier detection by integrating the outlier-free measurement model…

Applications · Statistics 2022-11-08 Hongwei Wang , Hongbin Li , Wei Zhang , Junyi Zuo , Heping Wang , Jun Fang

The association between a continuous and an ordinal variable is commonly modeled through the polyserial correlation model. However, this model, which is based on a partially-latent normality assumption, may be misspecified in practice, due…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-11 Max Welz

Compared to mean regression and quantile regression, the literature on modal regression is very sparse. A unifying framework for Bayesian modal regression is proposed, based on a family of unimodal distributions indexed by the mode, along…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-02 Qingyang Liu , Xianzheng Huang , Rai Bai

The key distinguishing property of a Bayesian approach is marginalization, rather than using a single setting of weights. Bayesian marginalization can particularly improve the accuracy and calibration of modern deep neural networks, which…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-31 Andrew Gordon Wilson , Pavel Izmailov

In data analysis, contamination caused by outliers is inevitable, and robust statistical methods are strongly demanded. In this paper, our concern is to develop a new approach for robust data analysis based on scoring rules. The scoring…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-11-22 Takafumi Kanamori , Hironori Fujisawa

Accurate state and uncertainty estimation is imperative for mobile robots and self driving vehicles to achieve safe navigation in pedestrian rich environments. A critical component of state and uncertainty estimation for robot navigation is…

Robotics · Computer Science 2021-04-08 Kapil D. Katyal , I-Jeng Wang , Gregory D. Hager

A large class of modern probabilistic learning systems assumes symmetric distributions, however, real-world data tend to obey skewed distributions and are thus not always adequately modelled through symmetric distributions. To address this…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-03-16 Shengxi Li , Danilo Mandic

Count data with zero inflation and large outliers are ubiquitous in many scientific applications. However, posterior analysis under a standard statistical model, such as Poisson or negative binomial distribution, is sensitive to such…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-09 Yasuyuki Hamura , Kaoru Irie , Shonosuke Sugasawa

This paper concerns the robust regression model when the number of predictors and the number of observations grow in a similar rate. Theory for M-estimators in this regime has been recently developed by several authors [El Karoui et al.,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-04-06 Daniel Nevo , Ya'acov Ritov
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