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A key task in actuarial modelling involves modelling the distributional properties of losses. Classic (distributional) regression approaches like Generalized Linear Models (GLMs; Nelder and Wedderburn, 1972) are commonly used, but…
Spiking Neural Networks (SNNs) are naturally suited for speech processing tasks due to their specific dynamics, which allows them to handle temporal data. However, the threshold-based generation of spikes in SNNs intuitively causes an…
We propose a Bayesian vector autoregressive (VAR) model for mixed-frequency data. Our model is based on the mean-adjusted parametrization of the VAR and allows for an explicit prior on the 'steady states' (unconditional means) of the…
Volatility forecasts play a central role among equity risk measures. Besides traditional statistical models, modern forecasting techniques based on machine learning can be employed when treating volatility as a univariate, daily…
Modern neural networks tend to be overconfident on unseen, noisy or incorrectly labelled data and do not produce meaningful uncertainty measures. Bayesian deep learning aims to address this shortcoming with variational approximations (such…
Making consistently profitable financial decisions in a continuously evolving and volatile stock market has always been a difficult task. Professionals from different disciplines have developed foundational theories to anticipate price…
In this work we explore a straightforward variational Bayes scheme for Recurrent Neural Networks. Firstly, we show that a simple adaptation of truncated backpropagation through time can yield good quality uncertainty estimates and superior…
For general panel data, by introducing network structure, network vector autoregressive (NVAR) model captured the linear inter dependencies among multiple time series. In this paper, we propose network vector autoregressive model for dyadic…
Value-at-risk (VaR) is an established measure to assess risks in critical real-world applications with random environmental factors. This paper presents a novel VaR upper confidence bound (V-UCB) algorithm for maximizing the VaR of a…
In this paper we discuss a general methodology to compute the market risk measure over long time horizons and at extreme percentiles, which are the typical conditions needed for estimating Economic Capital. The proposed approach extends the…
Deep feedforward neural networks (DFNNs) are a powerful tool for functional approximation. We describe flexible versions of generalized linear and generalized linear mixed models incorporating basis functions formed by a DFNN. The…
This paper investigates the application of Feature-Enriched Generative Adversarial Networks (FE-GAN) in financial risk management, with a focus on improving the estimation of Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES). FE-GAN enhances…
Volatility clustering is a common phenomenon in financial time series. Typically, linear models can be used to describe the temporal autocorrelation of the (logarithmic) variance of returns. Considering the difficulty in estimating this…
The increasing value of data held in enterprises makes it an attractive target to attackers. The increasing likelihood and impact of a cyber attack have highlighted the importance of effective cyber risk estimation. We propose two methods…
Bayesian methods have proved powerful in many applications for the inference of model parameters from data. These methods are based on Bayes' theorem, which itself is deceptively simple. However, in practice the computations required are…
In this paper we forecast daily returns of crypto-currencies using a wide variety of different econometric models. To capture salient features commonly observed in financial time series like rapid changes in the conditional variance,…
Recently, applying the novel data mining techniques for evaluating enterprise financial distress has received much research alternation. Support Vector Machine (SVM) and back propagation neural (BPN) network has been applied successfully in…
Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) augment deep networks with uncertainty quantification by Bayesian treatment of the network weights. However, such models face the challenge of Bayesian inference in a high-dimensional and usually…
Stochastic volatility (SV) models are nonlinear state-space models that enjoy increasing popularity for fitting and predicting heteroskedastic time series. However, due to the large number of latent quantities, their efficient estimation is…
We approach structured output prediction by optimizing a deep value network (DVN) to precisely estimate the task loss on different output configurations for a given input. Once the model is trained, we perform inference by gradient descent…