Related papers: Efficient sequential Bayesian inference for state-…

Data assimilation methods aim at estimating the state of a system by combining observations with a physical model. When sequential data assimilation is considered, the joint distribution of the latent state and the observations is described…

We propose a novel sampling framework for inference in probabilistic models: an active learning approach that converges more quickly (in wall-clock time) than Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) benchmarks. The central challenge in…

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods, also known as particle filters, are simulation-based recursive algorithms for the approximation of the a posteriori probability measures generated by state-space dynamical models. At any given time $t$,…

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithms were originally designed for estimating intractable conditional expectations within state-space models, but are now routinely used to generate approximate samples in the context of general-purpose…

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods comprise one of the most successful approaches to approximate Bayesian filtering. However, SMC without good proposal distributions struggle in high dimensions. We propose nested sequential Monte Carlo…

In this article we consider Bayesian parameter inference associated to partially-observed stochastic processes that start from a set B0 and are stopped or killed at the first hitting time of a known set A. Such processes occur naturally…

Nonlinear non-Gaussian state-space models arise in numerous applications in statistics and signal processing. In this context, one of the most successful and popular approximation techniques is the Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithm,…

In this article, we propose an adapted sequential Monte Carlo approximate Bayesian computation (SMC-ABC) algorithm for network inference in coupled stochastic differential equations (SDEs) used for multivariate time series modeling. Our…

This paper introduces methodology for performing Bayesian inference sequentially on a sequence of posteriors on spaces of different dimensions. We show how this may be achieved through the use of sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) samplers (Del…

Bayesian phylogenetic inference is often conducted via local or sequential search over topologies and branch lengths using algorithms such as random-walk Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) or Combinatorial Sequential Monte Carlo (CSMC).…

We study sequential Bayesian inference in stochastic kinetic models with latent factors. Assuming continuous observation of all the reactions, our focus is on joint inference of the unknown reaction rates and the dynamic latent states,…

We address the problem of approximating the posterior probability distribution of the fixed parameters of a state-space dynamical system using a sequential Monte Carlo method. The proposed approach relies on a nested structure that employs…

The acute phase of the Covid-19 pandemic has made apparent the need for decision support based upon accurate epidemic modeling. This process is substantially hampered by under-reporting of cases and related data incompleteness issues. In…

This paper proposes new methodology for sequential state and parameter estimation within the ensemble Kalman filter. The method is fully Bayesian and propagates the joint posterior density of states and parameters over time. In order to…

Sequential algorithms such as sequential importance sampling (SIS) and sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) have proven fundamental in Bayesian inference for models not admitting a readily available likelihood function. For approximate Bayesian…

Calibration of individual based models (IBMs), successful in modeling complex ecological dynamical systems, is often performed only ad-hoc. Bayesian inference can be used for both parameter estimation and uncertainty quantification, but its…

Particle Markov Chain Monte Carlo (PMCMC) is a general computational approach to Bayesian inference for general state space models. Our article scales up PMCMC in terms of the number of observations and parameters by generating the…

In Bayesian inference, we seek to compute information about random variables such as moments or quantiles on the basis of {available data} and prior information. When the distribution of random variables is {intractable}, Monte Carlo (MC)…

Bayesian inference allows us to define a posterior distribution over the weights of a generic neural network (NN). Exact posteriors are usually intractable, in which case approximations can be employed. One such approximation - variational…

Data assimilation combines information from models, measurements, and priors to estimate the state of a dynamical system such as the atmosphere. The Ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is a family of ensemble-based data assimilation approaches…