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When sample data are governed by an unknown sequence of independent but possibly non-identical distributions, the data-generating process (DGP) in general cannot be perfectly identified from the data. For making decisions facing such…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2022-05-11 Xiaoyu Cheng

The proliferation of deep learning techniques led to a wide range of advanced analytics applications in important business areas such as predictive maintenance or product recommendation. However, as the effectiveness of advanced analytics…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-07 Peter Kowalczyk , Giacomo Welsch , Frédéric Thiesse

In recent studies [1][13][12] Recurrent Neural Networks were used for generative processes and their surprising performance can be explained by their ability to create good predictions. In addition, data compression is also based on…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2017-05-03 Juan Andrés Laura , Gabriel Masi , Luis Argerich

Bandit algorithms are increasingly used in real-world sequential decision-making problems. Associated with this is an increased desire to be able to use the resulting datasets to answer scientific questions like: Did one type of ad lead to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-23 Kelly W. Zhang , Lucas Janson , Susan A. Murphy

In recent times, neural networks have become a powerful tool for the analysis of complex and abstract data models. However, their introduction intrinsically increases our uncertainty about which features of the analysis are model-related…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-11-09 Tom Charnock , Laurence Perreault-Levasseur , François Lanusse

This paper discusses the fundamental principles of causal inference - the area of statistics that estimates the effect of specific occurrences, treatments, interventions, and exposures on a given outcome from experimental and observational…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-03 Francesca Dominici , Falco J. Bargagli-Stoffi , Fabrizia Mealli

Data science requires time-consuming iterative manual activities. In particular, activities such as data selection, preprocessing, transformation, and mining, highly depend on iterative trial-and-error processes that could be sped-up…

Given a large dataset and an estimation task, it is common to pre-process the data by reducing them to a set of sufficient statistics. This step is often regarded as straightforward and advantageous (in that it simplifies statistical…

Computation · Statistics 2015-07-31 Andrea Montanari

AI has the potential to augment human decision making. However, even high-performing models can produce inaccurate predictions when deployed. These inaccuracies, combined with automation bias, where humans overrely on AI predictions, can…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2025-08-12 Sarah Jabbour , David Fouhey , Nikola Banovic , Stephanie D. Shepard , Ella Kazerooni , Michael W. Sjoding , Jenna Wiens

Probabilistic programming is a growing area that strives to make statistical analysis more accessible, by separating probabilistic modelling from probabilistic inference. In practice this decoupling is difficult. No single inference…

Programming Languages · Computer Science 2022-04-15 Maria I. Gorinova

Industrial machine learning systems face data challenges that are often under-explored in the academic literature. Common data challenges are data distribution shifts, missing values and anomalies. In this paper, we discuss data challenges…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-17 Michael Bohlke-Schneider , Shubham Kapoor , Tim Januschowski

The goal of data attribution is to trace the model's predictions through the learning algorithm and back to its training data. thereby identifying the most influential training samples and understanding how the model's behavior leads to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-12 Hongbo Zhu , Angelo Cangelosi

Data science has become increasingly essential for the production of official statistics, as it enables the automated collection, processing, and analysis of large amounts of data. With such data science practices in place, it enables more…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-06-08 Cedric De Boom , Michael Reusens

Probabilistic modeling is iterative. A scientist posits a simple model, fits it to her data, refines it according to her analysis, and repeats. However, fitting complex models to large data is a bottleneck in this process. Deriving…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-03-03 Alp Kucukelbir , Dustin Tran , Rajesh Ranganath , Andrew Gelman , David M. Blei

We examine the linear regression problem in a challenging high-dimensional setting with correlated predictors where the vector of coefficients can vary from sparse to dense. In this setting, we propose a combination of probabilistic…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-13 Roman Parzer , Peter Filzmoser , Laura Vana-Gür

In the rapidly growing literature on explanation algorithms, it often remains unclear what precisely these algorithms are for and how they should be used. In this position paper, we argue for a novel and pragmatic perspective: Explainable…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-17 Sebastian Bordt , Eric Raidl , Ulrike von Luxburg

In scientific inference problems, the underlying statistical modeling assumptions have a crucial impact on the end results. There exist, however, only a few automatic means for validating these fundamental modelling assumptions. The…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-05-21 Andreas Svensson , Dave Zachariah , Petre Stoica , Thomas B. Schön

Recent work has focused on the very common practice of prediction-based inference: that is, (i) using a pre-trained machine learning model to predict an unobserved response variable, and then (ii) conducting inference on the association…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-01-02 Keshav Motwani , Daniela Witten

To model modern large-scale datasets, we need efficient algorithms to infer a set of $P$ unknown model parameters from $N$ noisy measurements. What are fundamental limits on the accuracy of parameter inference, given finite signal-to-noise…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-09-07 Madhu Advani , Surya Ganguli

Motivated by recently emerging problems in machine learning and statistics, we propose data models which relax the familiar i.i.d. assumption. In essence, we seek to understand what it means for data to come from a set of probability…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-01-08 Christian Fröhlich , Robert C. Williamson
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