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Time Series foundation models (TSFMs) deliver strong forecasting performance through large-scale pretraining, but their large parameter sizes make deployment costly. While knowledge distillation offers a natural and effective approach for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-21 Yuqi Li , Kuiye Ding , Chuanguang Yang , Szu-Yu Chen , Yingli Tian

Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) excel at numerical forecasting but operate as black boxes lacking qualitative reasoning. Conversely, applying LLMs directly to temporal data introduces a modality gap: text tokenizers fragment…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-12 Md Atik Ahamed , Mihir Parmar , Palash Goyal , Chun-Liang Li , Qiang Cheng , Tomas Pfister , Jinsung Yoon

Time series (TS) data have consistently been in short supply, yet their demand remains high for training systems in prediction, modeling, classification, and various other applications. Synthesis can serve to expand the sample population,…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-04-23 Tracey K. M. Lee , H. W. Chan , K. H. Leo , Effie Chew , L. Zhao , Saeid Sanei

Analysis of time-series data allows to identify long-term trends and make predictions that can help to improve our lives. With the rapid development of artificial neural networks, long short-term memory (LSTM) recurrent neural network (RNN)…

Emerging Technologies · Computer Science 2018-09-11 Kazybek Adam , Kamilya Smagulova , Alex Pappachen James

Click-Through Rate (CTR) prediction, a core task in recommendation systems, estimates user click likelihood using historical behavioral data. Modeling user behavior sequences as text to leverage Language Models (LMs) for this task has…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-08-06 Zixuan Li , Binzong Geng , Jing Xiong , Yong He , Yuxuan Hu , Jian Chen , Dingwei Chen , Xiyu Chang , Liang Zhang , Linjian Mo , Chengming Li , Chuan Yuan , Zhenan Sun

This work proposes a machine-learning framework for modeling the error incurred by approximate solutions to parameterized dynamical systems. In particular, we extend the machine-learning error models (MLEM) framework proposed in Ref. 15 to…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-04-22 Eric J. Parish , Kevin T. Carlberg

Machine learning methods trained on raw numerical time series data exhibit fundamental limitations such as a high sensitivity to the hyper parameters and even to the initialization of random weights. A combination of a recurrent neural…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-03-13 Steven Elsworth , Stefan Güttel

Human decision-making, emotions, and collective psychology are complex factors that shape the temporal dynamics observed in financial and economic systems. Many recent time series forecasting models leverage external sources (e.g., news and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-01 Sheo Yon Jhin , Noseong Park

Generating high-quality videos from complex temporal descriptions that contain multiple sequential actions is a key unsolved problem. Existing methods are constrained by an inherent trade-off: using multiple short prompts fed sequentially…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-04-22 Hongyu Zhang , Yufan Deng , Zilin Pan , Peng-Tao Jiang , Bo Li , Qibin Hou , Zhiyang Dou , Zhen Dong , Daquan Zhou

Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) are a powerful paradigm for time series analysis and are often enhanced by synthetic data augmentation to improve the training data quality. Existing augmentation methods, however, typically rely on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-28 Junwei Deng , Chang Xu , Jiaqi W. Ma , Ming Jin , Chenghao Liu , Jiang Bian

Time series forecasting is a subject of significant scientific and industrial importance. Despite the widespread utilization of forecasting methods, there is a dearth of research aimed at comprehending the conditions under which these…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-23 Moisés Santos , André de Carvalho , Carlos Soares

Despite the notable advancements in numerous Transformer-based models, the task of long multi-horizon time series forecasting remains a persistent challenge, especially towards explainability. Focusing on commonly used saliency maps in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-18 Nghia Duong-Trung , Duc-Manh Nguyen , Danh Le-Phuoc

Time series forecasting (TSF) plays a critical role in decision-making for many real-world applications. Recently, LLM-based forecasters have made promising advancements. Despite their effectiveness, existing methods often lack explicit…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-04 Xiaoyu Tao , Mingyue Cheng , Ze Guo , Shuo Yu , Yaguo Liu , Qi Liu , Shijin Wang

Reinforcement learning has become a powerful approach for enhancing large language model reasoning, but faces a fundamental dilemma: training on easy problems can cause overfitting and pass@k degradation, while training on hard problems…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-04 Yangyi Fang , Jiaye Lin , Xiaoliang Fu , Cong Qin , Haolin Shi

Time series foundation models (TSFMs) demonstrate impressive zero-shot performance for time series forecasting. However, an important yet underexplored challenge is how to effectively finetune TSFMs on specific downstream tasks. While naive…

In this paper we develop a novel recommendation model that explicitly incorporates time information. The model relies on an embedding layer and TSL attention-like mechanism with inner products in different vector spaces, that can be thought…

Salient Span Masking (SSM) has shown itself to be an effective strategy to improve closed-book question answering performance. SSM extends general masked language model pretraining by creating additional unsupervised training sentences that…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-03-24 Jeremy R. Cole , Aditi Chaudhary , Bhuwan Dhingra , Partha Talukdar

Multivariate time series (MTS) analysis prevails in real-world applications such as finance, climate science and healthcare. The various self-attention mechanisms, the backbone of the state-of-the-art Transformer-based models, efficiently…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-21 Quang Minh Nguyen , Lam M. Nguyen , Subhro Das

Attention-based architectures have become ubiquitous in time series forecasting tasks, including spatio-temporal (STF) and long-term time series forecasting (LTSF). Yet, our understanding of the reasons for their effectiveness remains…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-13 Suhan Guo , Jiahong Deng , Yi Wei , Hui Dou , Furao Shen , Jian Zhao

Forecasting complex time series is an important yet challenging problem that involves various industrial applications. Recently, masked time-series modeling has been proposed to effectively model temporal dependencies for forecasting by…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-02 Hyunwoo Seo , Chiehyeon Lim