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We analyze the synthetic control (SC) method in panel data settings with many units. We assume the treatment assignment is based on unobserved heterogeneity and pre-treatment information, allowing for both strictly and sequentially…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-12-27 Dmitry Arkhangelsky , David Hirshberg

The paper introduces a new estimation method for the standard linear regression model. The procedure is not driven by the optimisation of any objective function rather, it is a simple weighted average of slopes from observation pairs. The…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-02-27 Felix Chan , Laszlo Matyas

Linear regressions with period and group fixed effects are widely used to estimate treatment effects. We show that they estimate weighted sums of the average treatment effects (ATE) in each group and period, with weights that may be…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-04-18 Clément de Chaisemartin , Xavier D'Haultfœuille

We develop a new Bayesian approach to estimating panel spatial autoregressive models with a known number of latent common factors, where N, the number of cross-sectional units, is much larger than T, the number of time periods. Without…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-10-28 Deborah Gefang , Stephen G Hall , George S. Tavlas

In this paper, we propose a varying coefficient panel data model with unobservable multiple interactive fixed effects that are correlated with the regressors. We approximate each coefficient function by B-spline, and propose a robust…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-03-08 Sanying Feng , Gaorong Li , Heng Peng , Tiejun Tong

We consider a static linear panel model with both correlated and uncorrelated random coefficients, where the former can depend arbitrarily on observable regressors while the latter are independent of them. We provide sufficient conditions…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-05-21 Irene Botosaru , James L. Powell

Unobserved confounding is one of the main challenges when estimating causal effects. We propose a causal reduction method that, given a causal model, replaces an arbitrary number of possibly high-dimensional latent confounders with a single…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-02-24 Maximilian Ilse , Patrick Forré , Max Welling , Joris M. Mooij

Accurately estimating treatment effects over time is crucial in fields such as precision medicine, epidemiology, economics, and marketing. Many current methods for estimating treatment effects over time assume that all confounders are…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-11-11 Mouad El Bouchattaoui , Myriam Tami , Benoit Lepetit , Paul-Henry Cournède

Causal inference methods have been applied in various fields where researchers want to estimate treatment effects. In traditional causal inference settings, one assumes that the outcome of a unit does not depend on treatments of other…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-09-05 Kelly Kung , Daniel L. Sussman

This paper investigates nonlinear panel regression models with interactive fixed effects and introduces a general framework for parameter estimation under potentially non-convex objective functions. We propose a computationally feasible…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-12-01 Kan Yao

A new empirical Bayes approach to variable selection in the context of generalized linear models is developed. The proposed algorithm scales to situations in which the number of putative explanatory variables is very large, possibly much…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-06-29 Haim Bar , James Booth , Martin T. Wells

With the rapid advancement of information technology and data collection systems, large-scale spatial panel data presents new methodological and computational challenges. This paper introduces a dynamic spatial panel quantile model that…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-06-10 Tomohiro Ando , Jushan Bai , Kunpeng Li , Yong Song

A growing number of applications involve settings where, in order to infer heterogeneous effects, a researcher compares various units. Examples of research designs include children moving between different neighborhoods, workers moving…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-04-03 Stephane Bonhomme , Angela Denis

Random effects (RE) models have been widely used to study the contextual effects of structures such as neighborhood or school. The RE approach has recently been applied to age-period-cohort (APC) models that are unidentified because the…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-04-17 Liying Luo , James S. Hodges

This paper introduces a Projected Principal Component Analysis (Projected-PCA), which employs principal component analysis to the projected (smoothed) data matrix onto a given linear space spanned by covariates. When it applies to…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-01-18 Jianqing Fan , Yuan Liao , Weichen Wang

Structural causal models postulate noisy functional relations among a set of interacting variables. The causal structure underlying each such model is naturally represented by a directed graph whose edges indicate for each variable which…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-03-15 David Strieder , Tobias Freidling , Stefan Haffner , Mathias Drton

Recently, conditional average treatment effect (CATE) estimation has been attracting much attention due to its importance in various fields such as statistics, social and biomedical sciences. This study proposes a partially linear…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-01-31 Shunsuke Horii

This paper constructs individual-specific density forecasts for a panel of firms or households using a dynamic linear model with common and heterogeneous coefficients as well as cross-sectional heteroskedasticity. The panel considered in…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-10-06 Laura Liu

We present Causal Posterior Estimation (CPE), a novel method for Bayesian inference in simulator models, i.e., models where the evaluation of the likelihood function is intractable or too computationally expensive, but where one can…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-28 Simon Dirmeier , Antonietta Mira

We consider continuous-time models with a large panel of moment conditions, where the structural parameter depends on a set of characteristics, whose effects are of interest. The leading example is the linear factor model in financial…

Econometrics · Economics 2018-12-04 Yuan Liao , Xiye Yang