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Tipping points are abrupt, drastic, and often irreversible changes in the evolution of non-stationary and chaotic dynamical systems. For instance, increased greenhouse gas concentrations are predicted to lead to drastic decreases in low…

This study introduces a novel spatial autoregressive model in which the dependent variable is a function that may exhibit functional autocorrelation with the outcome functions of nearby units. This model can be characterized as a…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-10-02 Tadao Hoshino

Structural change detection problems are often encountered in analytics and econometrics, where the performance of a model can be significantly affected by unforeseen changes in the underlying relationships. Although these problems have a…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-05-29 Pekka Malo , Lauri Viitasaari , Olga Gorskikh , Pauliina Ilmonen

We propose a multiscale approach to time series autoregression, in which linear regressors for the process in question include features of its own path that live on multiple timescales. We take these multiscale features to be the recent…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-17 Rafal Baranowski , Yining Chen , Piotr Fryzlewicz

In the regime of change-point detection, a nonparametric framework based on scan statistics utilizing graphs representing similarities among observations is gaining attention due to its flexibility and good performances for high-dimensional…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-09-16 Hoseung Song , Hao Chen

Change points in real-world systems mark significant regime shifts in system dynamics, possibly triggered by exogenous or endogenous factors. These points define regimes for the time evolution of the system and are crucial for understanding…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-09-30 Ioanna-Yvonni Tsaknaki , Fabrizio Lillo , Piero Mazzarisi

We study the performance of sparse regression methods and propose new techniques to distill the governing equations of dynamical systems from data. We first look at the generic methodology of learning interpretable equation forms from data,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-03-25 Chinmay S. Kulkarni

This paper explores the identification and estimation of nonseparable panel data models. We show that the structural function is nonparametrically identified when it is strictly increasing in a scalar unobservable variable, the conditional…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-11-09 Takuya Ishihara

Bayesian On-line Changepoint Detection is extended to on-line model selection and non-stationary spatio-temporal processes. We propose spatially structured Vector Autoregressions (VARs) for modelling the process between changepoints (CPs)…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-06-07 Jeremias Knoblauch , Theodoros Damoulas

Vector Auto-Regressive (VAR) models capture lead-lag temporal dynamics of multivariate time series data. They have been widely used in macroeconomics, financial econometrics, neuroscience and functional genomics. In many applications, the…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-10-15 Peiliang Bai , Yue Bai , Abolfazl Safikhani , George Michailidis

A scheme for estimating atmospheric parameters T$_{eff}$, log$~g$, and [Fe/H] is proposed on the basis of Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) algorithm and Haar wavelet. The proposed scheme consists of three processes. A…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2015-08-04 Yu Lu , Xiangru Li

This manuscript studies the unsupervised change point detection problem in time series of graphs using a decoder-only latent space model. The proposed framework consists of learnable prior distributions for low-dimensional graph…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-18 Yik Lun Kei , Jialiang Li , Hangjian Li , Yanzhen Chen , Oscar Hernan Madrid Padilla

We present a general and flexible framework for detecting regime changes in complex, non-stationary data across multi-trial experiments. Traditional change point detection methods focus on identifying abrupt changes within a single time…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-08 Anass B. El-Yaagoubi , Jean-Marc Freyermuth , Hernando Ombao

This paper studies the unsupervised change point detection problem in time series of networks using the Separable Temporal Exponential-family Random Graph Model (STERGM). Inherently, dynamic network patterns are complex due to dyadic and…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-01 Yik Lun Kei , Hangjian Li , Yanzhen Chen , Oscar Hernan Madrid Padilla

Modeling data with non-stationary covariance structure is important to represent heterogeneity in geophysical and other environmental spatial processes. In this work, we investigate a multistage approach to modeling non-stationary…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-02-05 Ashton Wiens , Douglas Nychka , William Kleibe

Understanding the dynamics of the land-atmosphere exchange of CO$_2$ is key to advance our predictive capacities of the coupled climate-carbon feedback system. In essence, the net vegetation flux is the difference of the uptake of CO$_2$…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2024-07-30 Leonard Schulz , Jürgen Vollmer , Miguel D. Mahecha , Karin Mora

This paper presents an approach for applying camera perception techniques to spinning LiDAR data. To improve the robustness of long-term change detection from a 3D LiDAR, range and intensity information are rendered into virtual…

Robotics · Computer Science 2024-05-01 Alexander Krawciw , Sven Lilge , Timothy D. Barfoot

We explore estimation and forecast accuracy for sparse linear models, focusing on scenarios where both predictors and errors carry serial correlations. We establish a clear link between predictor serial correlation and the performance of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-01-27 Simone Tonini , Francesca Chiaromonte , Alessandro Giovannelli

Without imposing prior distributional knowledge underlying multivariate time series of interest, we propose a nonparametric change-point detection approach to estimate the number of change points and their locations along the temporal axis.…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-05-13 Xiaodong Wang , Fushing Hsieh

A spatial point process can be characterized by an intensity function which predicts the number of events that occur across space. In this paper, we develop a method to infer predictive intensity intervals by learning a spatial model using…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-07-06 Muhammad Osama , Dave Zachariah , Petre Stoica