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Numerous studies have focused on learning and understanding the dynamics of physical systems from video data, such as spatial intelligence. Artificial intelligence requires quantitative assessments of the uncertainty of the model to ensure…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-18 Aoming Liang , Qi Liu , Lei Xu , Fahad Sohrab , Weicheng Cui , Changhui Song , Moncef Gabbouj

Conformal prediction has emerged as a cutting-edge methodology in statistics and machine learning, providing prediction intervals with finite-sample frequentist coverage guarantees. Yet, its interplay with Bayesian statistics, often…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-27 Nina Deliu , Brunero Liseo

Surrogate models (including deep neural networks and other machine learning algorithms in supervised learning) are capable of approximating arbitrarily complex, high-dimensional input-output problems in science and engineering, but require…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-17 Miguel Sánchez-Domínguez , Lucas Lacasa , Javier de Vicente , Gonzalo Rubio , Eusebio Valero

Conformal Prediction (CP) has proven to be an effective post-hoc method for improving the trustworthiness of neural networks by providing prediction sets with finite-sample guarantees. However, under adversarial attacks, classical conformal…

Deploying trustworthy AI systems requires principled uncertainty quantification. Conformal prediction (CP) is a widely used framework for constructing prediction sets with distribution-free coverage guarantees. In many practical settings,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-18 Haifeng Wen , Osvaldo Simeone , Hong Xing

Predictive Coding (PC) is an influential account of cortical learning. Much of recent work has focused on comparing PC to Backpropagation (BP) to find whether PC offers any advantages. Small scale experiments show that PC enables learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-13 Gaspard Oliviers , Elene Lominadze , Rafal Bogacz

If you are predicting the label $y$ of a new object with $\hat y$, how confident are you that $y = \hat y$? Conformal prediction methods provide an elegant framework for answering such question by building a $100 (1 - \alpha)\%$ confidence…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-11-11 Eugene Ndiaye , Ichiro Takeuchi

We present Distribution-aware Conformal Prediction (DCP), a unified framework integrating probabilistic predictors like Monte Carlo dropout, deep ensembles, and quantile regression with score-agnostic conformal calibration to produce valid…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-27 Daniel Schweizer , Peter Kuhn , Jayant Sharma , Shivali Dubey , Malte von Ramin , Christoph Brockt-Haßauer

This research leverages Conformal Prediction (CP) in the form of Conformal Predictive Systems (CPS) to accurately estimate uncertainty in a suite of machine learning (ML)-based radio metric models [1] as well as in a 2-D map-based ML path…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-14 Alexis Bose , Jonathan Ethier , Ryan G. Dempsey , Yifeng Qiu

Uncertainty quantification has received considerable interest in recent works in Machine Learning. In particular, Conformal Prediction (CP) gains ground in this field. For the case of time series, Online Conformal Prediction (OCP) becomes…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-03 Théo Dupuy , Binbin Xu , Stéphane Perrey , Jacky Montmain , Abdelhak Imoussaten

Conformal prediction is a model-agnostic approach to generating prediction sets that cover the true class with a high probability. Although its prediction set size is expected to capture aleatoric uncertainty, there is a lack of evidence…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-24 Misgina Tsighe Hagos , Claes Lundström

Machine learning models must continuously self-adjust themselves for novel data distribution in the open world. As the predominant principle, entropy minimization (EM) has been proven to be a simple yet effective cornerstone in existing…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-10-16 Qingyang Zhang , Yatao Bian , Xinke Kong , Peilin Zhao , Changqing Zhang

Process metrics, valued for their language independence and ease of collection, have been shown to outperform product metrics in defect prediction. Among these, change entropy (Hassan, 2009) is widely used at the file level and has proven…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2025-04-28 Ethari Hrishikesh , Amit Kumar , Meher Bhardwaj , Sonali Agarwal

Model calibration aims to align confidence with prediction correctness. The Cross-Entropy (CE) loss is widely used for calibrator training, which enforces the model to increase confidence on the ground truth class. However, we find the CE…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-02-13 Yuchi Liu , Lei Wang , Yuli Zou , James Zou , Liang Zheng

Neural networks have dramatically increased our capacity to learn from large, high-dimensional datasets across innumerable disciplines. However, their decisions are not easily interpretable, their computational costs are high, and building…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-07-08 Mackenzie J. Meni , Ryan T. White , Michael Mayo , Kevin Pilkiewicz

Rigorous uncertainty quantification is essential for the safe deployment of autonomous systems in unconstrained environments. Conformal Prediction (CP) provides a distribution-free framework for this task, yet its standard formulations rely…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-14 Renukanandan Tumu , Aditya Singh , Rahul Mangharam

Conformal Prediction is a framework that produces prediction intervals based on the output from a machine learning algorithm. In this paper we explore the case when training data is made up of multiple parts available in different sources…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-08-16 Ola Spjuth , Robin Carrión Brännström , Lars Carlsson , Niharika Gauraha

Conformal Prediction is a widely studied technique to construct prediction sets of future observations. Most conformal prediction methods focus on achieving the necessary coverage guarantees, but do not provide formal guarantees on the size…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-25 Chao Gao , Liren Shan , Vaidehi Srinivas , Aravindan Vijayaraghavan

Non-parametric machine learning models, such as random forests and gradient boosted trees, are frequently used to estimate house prices due to their predictive accuracy, but a main drawback of such methods is their limited ability to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-01-31 Anders Hjort , Gudmund Horn Hermansen , Johan Pensar , Jonathan P. Williams

Unlike traditional statistical methods, Conformal Prediction (CP) allows for the determination of valid and accurate confidence levels associated with individual predictions based only on exchangeability of the data. We here introduce a new…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-05-31 Marcos López-De-Castro , Alberto García-Galindo , Rubén Armañanzas