Related papers: Assessment of Simulation-based Inference Methods f…
We investigate predictions of stochastic compartmental models on the severity of disease outbreaks. The models we consider are the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) for bacterial infections, and the Susceptible -Infected-Removed (SIR)…
Accurate simulation of complex physical systems enables the development, testing, and certification of control strategies before they are deployed into the real systems. As simulators become more advanced, the analytical tractability of the…
We introduce an inferential framework for a wide class of semi-linear stochastic differential equations (SDEs). Recent work has shown that numerical splitting schemes can preserve critical properties of such types of SDEs, give rise to…
In this paper, we study a stochastic susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) epidemic model that includes an additional immigration process. In the presence of multiplicative noise, generated by environmental perturbations, the model…
We study sequential Bayesian inference in stochastic kinetic models with latent factors. Assuming continuous observation of all the reactions, our focus is on joint inference of the unknown reaction rates and the dynamic latent states,…
In this article we consider Bayesian parameter inference associated to partially-observed stochastic processes that start from a set B0 and are stopped or killed at the first hitting time of a known set A. Such processes occur naturally…
One way to study the spread of disease is through mathematical models. The most successful models compartmentalize the host population according to their infectious stage, e.g., susceptible (S), infected (I), exposed (E), and recovered (R).…
Effective epidemic modeling and surveillance require computationally efficient methods that can continuously update estimates as new data becomes available. This paper explores the application of an online variant of Sequential Monte Carlo…
We present a comparison between stochastic simulations and mean-field theories for the epidemic threshold of the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model on correlated networks (both assortative and disassortative) with power-law degree…
We develop a new perturbation method for studying quasi-neutral competition in a broad class of stochastic competition models, and apply it to the analysis of fixation of competing strains in two epidemic models. The first model is a…
We study several bayesian inference problems for irreversible stochastic epidemic models on networks from a statistical physics viewpoint. We derive equations which allow to accurately compute the posterior distribution of the time…
Predictions for physical systems often rely upon knowledge acquired from ensembles of entities, e.g., ensembles of cells in biological sciences. For qualitative and quantitative analysis, these ensembles are simulated with parametric…
In this paper we introduce a statistical inference framework for estimating the contagion source from a partially observed contagion spreading process on an arbitrary network structure. The framework is based on a maximum likelihood…
In this paper, we consider a stochastic model based on the Cox- Ingersoll- Ross model (CIR). The stochastic model is parameterized analytically by applying It\^o's calculus and the trend functions of the proposed process is calculated. The…
The Covid-19 pandemic has made clear the need to improve modern multivariate time-series forecasting models. Current state of the art predictions of future daily deaths and, especially, hospital resource usage have confidence intervals that…
We study an SIS epidemic process over a static contact network where the nodes have partial information about the epidemic state. They react by limiting their interactions with their neighbors when they believe the epidemic is currently…
Containment of epidemic outbreaks entails great societal and economic costs. Cost-effective containment strategies rely on efficiently identifying infected individuals, making the best possible use of the available testing resources.…
Researchers have developed several theoretical methods for predicting epidemic thresholds, including the mean-field like (MFL) method, the quenched mean-field (QMF) method, and the dynamical message passing (DMP) method. When these methods…
In the light of several major epidemic events that emerged in the past two decades, and emphasized by the COVID-19 pandemics, the non-Markovian spreading models occurring on complex networks gained significant attention from the scientific…
Practical parameter identifiability in ODE-based epidemiological models is a known issue, yet one that merits further study. It is essentially ubiquitous due to noise and errors in real data. In this study, to avoid uncertainty stemming…