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We prove explicit finite-$N$ lower bounds for $\mathbb P(\bigcup_{k=1}^N A_k)$ when the $\sigma$-algebras generated by an event sequence satisfy quantitative $\varphi$- or $\alpha$-mixing bounds. The main $\varphi$-mixing estimate is…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-04-28 Chatchawan Panraksa

Variational approximations are increasingly based on gradient-based optimization of expectations estimated by sampling. Handling discrete latent variables is then challenging because the sampling process is not differentiable. Continuous…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-09 Tomasz Kuśmierczyk , Arto Klami

We establish nonuniform Berry-Esseen bounds for martingales under the conditional Bernstein condition. These bounds imply Cram\'er type large deviations for moderate $x$'s, and are of exponential decay rate as de la Pe\~na's inequality when…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-08-03 Xiequan Fan , Ion Grama , Quansheng Liu

We study the effect of observing a stationary process at irregular time points via a renewal process. We establish a sharp difference in the asymptotic behaviour of the self-normalized sample mean of the observed process depending on the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-11-04 Mohamedou Ould-Haye , Anne Philippe

This paper presents some limit theorems for certain functionals of moving averages of semimartingales plus noise which are observed at high frequency. Our method generalizes the pre-averaging approach (see [Bernoulli 15 (2009) 634--658,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2010-10-05 Jean Jacod , Mark Podolskij , Mathias Vetter

Motivated by the study of dependent random variables by coupling with independent blocks of variables, we obtain first sufficient conditions for the moderate deviation principle in its functional form for triangular arrays of independent…

Probability · Mathematics 2008-05-07 Florence Merlevede , Magda Peligrad

The typical central limit theorems in high-frequency asymptotics for semimartingales are results on stable convergence to a mixed normal limit with an unknown conditional variance. Estimating this conditional variance usually is a hard…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-03-25 Mathias Vetter

In this paper, we are concerned with obtaining distribution-free concentration inequalities for mixture of independent Bernoulli variables that incorporate a notion of variance. Missing mass is the total probability mass associated to the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-03-05 Bahman Yari Saeed Khanloo

Finite mixture models are widely used in econometric analyses to capture unobserved heterogeneity. This paper shows that maximum likelihood estimation of finite mixtures of parametric densities can suffer from substantial finite-sample bias…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-04 Raphaël Langevin

We derive concentration inequalities for functions of the empirical measure of large random matrices with infinitely divisible entries and, in particular, stable ones. We also give concentration results for some other functionals of these…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Christian Houdré , Hua Xu

We establish the asymptotic normality of the regression estimator in a fixed-design setting when the errors are given by a field of dependent random variables. The result applies to martingale-difference or strongly mixing random fields. On…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-07-10 Mohamed El Machkouri , Radu Stoica

We prove a central limit theorem for stationary multiple (random) fields of martingale differences $f\circ T_{\underline{i}}$, $\underline{i}\in \Bbb Z^d$, where $T_{\underline{i}}$ is a $\Bbb Z^d$ action. In most cases the multiple…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-03-28 Dalibor Volny

As a crucial problem in statistics is to decide whether additional variables are needed in a regression model. We propose a new multivariate test to investigate the conditional mean independence of Y given X conditioning on some known…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-05-18 Ze Jin , Xiaohan Yan , David S. Matteson

The central limit theorem of martingales is the fundamental tool for studying the convergence of stochastic processes, especially stochastic integrals and differential equations. In this paper, general central limit theorems and functional…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-05-08 Li-Xin Zhang

The emergence of nonequilibrium phenomena in individual complex wave systems has long been of fundamental interests. Its analytic studies remain notoriously difficult. Using the mathematical tool of the concentration of measure (CM), we…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2018-11-14 Ping Fang , Liyi Zhao , Chushun Tian

Baez-Duarte (1971) and Gilat (1972) gave examples of martingales that converge in probability (and hence in distribution) but not almost surely. Here such a martingale is constructed with uniformly bounded increments, and a construction is…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-03-27 Jim Pitman

For a class of symmetric random matrices whose entries are martingale differences adapted to an increasing filtration, we prove that under a Lindeberg-like condition, the empirical spectral distribution behaves asymptotically similarly to a…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-02-27 Florence Merlevède , Costel Peligrad , Magda Peligrad

Linear stability of inviscid, parallel, and stably stratified shear flow is studied under the assumption of smooth strictly monotonic profiles of shear flow and density, so that the local Richardson number is positive everywhere. The…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2016-05-04 Makoto Hirota , Philip J. Morrison

We study the problem of parameter estimation for large exchangeable interacting particle systems when a sample of discrete observations from a single particle is known. We propose a novel method based on martingale estimating functions…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-01-30 Grigorios A. Pavliotis , Andrea Zanoni

There is a growing interest in the so-called Bayesian Predictive Inference approach, which allows to perform Bayesian inference without specifying the likelihood and prior of the model, or the need of any MCMC. Instead, only a sequence of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-09-30 Marco Battiston , Lorenzo Cappello
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