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This work presents a framework to inversely quantify uncertainty in the model parameters of the friction model using earthquake data via the Bayesian inference. The forward model is the popular rate- and state- friction (RSF) model along…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2021-04-23 Saumik Dana , Karthik Reddy Lyathakula

In statistical applications, it is common to encounter parameters supported on a varying or unknown dimensional space. Examples include the fused lasso regression, the matrix recovery under an unknown low rank, etc. Despite the ease of…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-10-04 Maoran Xu , Hua Zhou , Yujie Hu , Leo L. Duan

In this paper, we address the fundamental problem of line spectral estimation in a Bayesian framework. We target model order and parameter estimation via variational inference in a probabilistic model in which the frequencies are…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2017-04-05 Mihai-Alin Badiu , Thomas Lundgaard Hansen , Bernard Henri Fleury

Model misspecification analysis strategies, such as anomaly detection, model validation, and model comparison are a key component of scientific model development. Over the last few years, there has been a rapid rise in the use of…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2025-03-17 Noemi Anau Montel , James Alvey , Christoph Weniger

Under model misspecification, it is known that Bayesian posteriors often do not properly quantify uncertainty about true or pseudo-true parameters. Even more fundamentally, misspecification leads to a lack of reproducibility in the sense…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-06 Jonathan H. Huggins , Jeffrey W. Miller

When it is acknowledged that all candidate parameterised statistical models are misspecified relative to the data generating process, the decision maker (DM) must currently concern themselves with inference for the parameter value…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-07-04 Jack Jewson , Jim Q Smith , Chris Holmes

In recent years, the ascendance of diffusion modeling as a state-of-the-art generative modeling approach has spurred significant interest in their use as priors in Bayesian inverse problems. However, it is unclear how to optimally integrate…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-08-28 Evan Scope Crafts , Umberto Villa

Decision making under uncertainty is critical to real-world, autonomous systems. Model Predictive Control (MPC) methods have demonstrated favorable performance in practice, but remain limited when dealing with complex probability…

Robotics · Computer Science 2021-04-13 Alexander Lambert , Adam Fishman , Dieter Fox , Byron Boots , Fabio Ramos

We present a novel approach for training deep neural networks in a Bayesian way. Classical, i.e. non-Bayesian, deep learning has two major drawbacks both originating from the fact that network parameters are considered to be deterministic.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-03-11 Konstantin Posch , Jan Steinbrener , Jürgen Pilz

Decision making under uncertainty is challenging since the data-generating process (DGP) is often unknown. Bayesian inference proceeds by estimating the DGP through posterior beliefs about the model's parameters. However, minimising the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-09-06 Charita Dellaporta , Patrick O'Hara , Theodoros Damoulas

Priors in Bayesian analyses often encode informative domain knowledge that can be useful in making the inference process more efficient. Occasionally, however, priors may be unrepresentative of the parameter values for a given dataset,…

Computation · Statistics 2022-07-05 Xi Chen , Farhan Feroz , Michael Hobson

The present paper proposes a Bayesian framework for inverse problems that seamlessly integrates optimization and inversion to enable rapid surrogate modeling, accurate parameter inference, and rigorous uncertainty quantification. Bayesian…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2026-02-05 Mihaela Chiappetta , Massimo Carraturo , Alexander Raßloff , Markus Kästner , Ferdinando Auricchio

In this article, we propose a novel Bayesian multiple testing formulation for model and variable selection in inverse setups, judiciously embedding the idea of inverse reference distributions proposed by Bhattacharya (2013) in a mixture…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-07-16 Debashis Chatterjee , Sourabh Bhattacharya

The problem of detecting the Out-of-Distribution (OoD) inputs is of paramount importance for Deep Neural Networks. It has been previously shown that even Deep Generative Models that allow estimating the density of the inputs may not be…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-01-02 Misha Glazunov , Apostolis Zarras

A common task in experimental sciences is to fit mathematical models to real-world measurements to improve understanding of natural phenomenon (reverse-engineering or inverse modeling). When complex dynamical systems are considered, such as…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2018-06-18 Jean-Charles Croix , Nicolas Durrande , Mauricio Alvarez

Missing time-series data is a prevalent problem in many prescriptive analytics models in operations management, healthcare and finance. Imputation methods for time-series data are usually applied to the full panel data with the purpose of…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-04-13 Jose Blanchet , Fernando Hernandez , Viet Anh Nguyen , Markus Pelger , Xuhui Zhang

Bayesian simulation-based inference (SBI) methods are used in statistical models where simulation is feasible but the likelihood is intractable. Standard SBI methods can perform poorly in cases of model misspecification, and there has been…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-15 Wang Yuyan , Michael Evans , David J. Nott

We introduce a methodology for robust Bayesian estimation with robust divergence (e.g., density power divergence or {\gamma}-divergence), indexed by a single tuning parameter. It is well known that the posterior density induced by robust…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-04 Shouto Yonekura , Shonosuke Sugasawa

In this article, we investigate posterior convergence of nonparametric binary and Poisson regression under possible model misspecification, assuming general stochastic process prior with appropriate properties. Our model setup and objective…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-05-04 Debashis Chatterjee , Sourabh Bhattacharya

We propose a novel approach to sequential Bayesian inference based on variational Bayes (VB). The key insight is that, in the online setting, we do not need to add the KL term to regularize to the prior (which comes from the posterior at…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-11-01 Matt Jones , Peter Chang , Kevin Murphy
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