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Multivariate Hawkes process provides a powerful framework for modeling temporal dependencies and event-driven interactions in complex systems. While existing methods primarily focus on uncovering causal structures among observed…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-03 Songyao Jin , Biwei Huang

Among the statistical tools for online information diffusion modeling, both epidemic models and Hawkes point processes are popular choices. The former originate from epidemiology, and consider information as a viral contagion which spreads…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2018-05-18 Marian-Andrei Rizoiu , Swapnil Mishra , Quyu Kong , Mark Carman , Lexing Xie

In this work, we propose to catch the complexity of the membrane potential's dynamic of a motoneuron between its spikes, taking into account the spikes from other neurons around. Our approach relies on two types of data: extracellular…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-08-03 Anna Bonnet , Charlotte Dion , François Gindraud , Sarah Lemler

Hawkes processes have recently gained increasing attention from the machine learning community for their versatility in modeling event sequence data. While they have a rich history going back decades, some of their properties, such as…

We propose a novel probabilistic framework to model continuous-time interaction events data. Our goal is to infer the \emph{implicit} community structure underlying the temporal interactions among entities, and also to exploit how the…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2020-06-24 Sikun Yang , Heinz Koeppl

Self-exciting processes of Hawkes type have been used to model various phenomena including earthquakes, neural activities, and views of online videos. Studies of temporal networks have revealed that sequences of social interevent times for…

Physics and Society · Physics 2015-06-05 Naoki Masuda , Taro Takaguchi , Nobuo Sato , Kazuo Yano

We develop a new family of marked point processes by focusing the characteristic properties of marked Hawkes processes exclusively to the space of marks, providing the freedom to specify a different model for the occurrence times. This is…

Applications · Statistics 2022-10-18 Santhosh Narayanan , Ioannis Kosmidis , Petros Dellaportas

The Hawkes model is a past-dependent point process, widely used in various fields for modeling temporal clustering of events. Extending this framework, the multidimensional marked Hawkes process incorporates multiple interacting event types…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-20 Anna Bonnet , Charlotte Dion-Blanc , Maya Sadeler-Perrin

We provide probabilistic and computational results on Markovian multivariate Hawkes processes and induced population processes. By applying the Markov property, we characterize in closed form a joint transform, bijective to the probability…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-08-08 R. S. Karim , R. J. A. Laeven , M , M. Mandjes

Hawkes process is a class of simple point processes that is self-exciting and has clustering effect. The intensity of this point process depends on its entire past history. It has wide applications in finance, insurance, neuroscience,…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-03-28 Xuefeng Gao , Lingjiong Zhu

Previous work has shown that popular trending events are important external factors which pose significant influence on user search behavior and also provided a way to computationally model this influence. However, their problem formulation…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-03-05 Shubhra Kanti Karmaker Santu , Liangda Li , Yi Chang , ChengXiang Zhai

This study examine the theoretical and empirical perspectives of the symmetric Hawkes model of the price tick structure. Combined with the maximum likelihood estimation, the model provides a proper method of volatility estimation…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2019-08-15 Kyungsub Lee , Byoung Ki Seo

Given a collection of entities (or nodes) in a network and our intermittent observations of activities from each entity, an important problem is to learn the hidden edges depicting directional relationships among these entities. Here, we…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-08-01 Triet M Le

The Hawkes process is a simple point process, whose intensity function depends on the entire past history and is self-exciting and has the clustering property. The Hawkes process is in general non-Markovian. The linear Hawkes process has…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-09-04 Behzad Mehrdad , Lingjiong Zhu

We propose a simulation method for multidimensional Hawkes processes based on superposition theory of point processes. This formulation allows us to design efficient simulations for Hawkes processes with differing exponentially decaying…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-03-14 Kar Wai Lim , Young Lee , Leif Hanlen , Hongbiao Zhao

Both Hawkes processes and autoregressive processes rely on linear functionals of their past, while modeling different types of data. Since datasets arising from observations of the same phenomenon may be heterogeneous and sampled at…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-05-28 Théo Leblanc

The Hawkes process and its extensions effectively model self-excitatory phenomena including earthquakes, viral pandemics, financial transactions, neural spike trains and the spread of memes through social networks. The usefulness of these…

Applications · Statistics 2020-05-21 Andrew J. Holbrook , Charles E. Loeffler , Seth R. Flaxman , Marc A. Suchard

Many networks have event-driven dynamics (such as communication, social media and criminal networks), where the mean rate of the events occurring at a node in the network changes according to the occurrence of other events in the network.…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2023-03-22 Santitissadeekorn N. , Delahaies S. , Lloyd D. J. B

We propose a novel framework for modeling multiple multivariate point processes, each with heterogeneous event types that share an underlying space and obey the same generative mechanism. Focusing on Hawkes processes and their variants that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-05 Hongteng Xu , Dixin Luo , Hongyuan Zha

We consider hyperbolic partial differential equations (PDEs) for a dynamic description of the traffic behavior in road networks. These equations are coupled to a Hawkes process that models traffic accidents taking into account their…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-11-08 Simone Göttlich , Thomas Schillinger