Related papers: Volatility change point detection for linear parab…
This paper introduces a novel Bayesian approach to detect changes in the variance of a Gaussian sequence model, focusing on quantifying the uncertainty in the change point locations and providing a scalable algorithm for inference. Such a…
In this paper, we introduce an asymptotic test procedure to assess the stability of volatilities and cross-volatilites of linear and nonlinear multivariate time series models. The test is very flexible as it can be applied, for example, to…
We consider linear models with scalar responses and covariates from a separable Hilbert space. The aim is to detect change points in the error distribution, based on sequential residual empirical distribution functions. Expansions for those…
In a wide range of applications, the stochastic properties of the observed time series change over time. The changes often occur gradually rather than abruptly: the properties are (approximately) constant for some time and then slowly start…
We propose localized spectral estimators for the quadratic covariation and the spot covolatility of diffusion processes which are observed discretely with additive observation noise. The eligibility of this approach to lead to an…
This paper discusses change detection in SAR time-series. Firstly, several statistical properties of the coefficient of variation highlight its pertinence for change detection. Then several criteria are proposed. The coefficient of…
We propose a method for constructing sparse high-frequency volatility estimators that are robust against change points in the spot volatility process. The estimators we propose are $\ell_1$-regularized versions of existing volatility…
In this paper, we present the double smoothed nonparametric approach for infinitesimal conditional volatility of jump-diffusion model based on high frequency data. Under certain minimal conditions, we obtain the strong consistency and…
We consider parameter estimation of the reaction term for a second order linear parabolic stochastic partial differential equation in two space dimensions driven by a $Q$-Wiener process under small diffusivity. We first construct an…
The detection of change-points in a spatially or time ordered data sequence is an important problem in many fields such as genetics and finance. We derive the asymptotic distribution of a statistic recently suggested for detecting…
Most studies in real time change-point detection either focus on the linear model or use the CUSUM method under classical assumptions on model errors. This paper considers the sequential change-point detection in a nonlinear quantile model.…
In this work, we study the problem of learning the volatility under market microstructure noise. Specifically, we consider noisy discrete time observations from a stochastic differential equation and develop a novel computational method to…
Modified scattering phenomena are encountered in the study of global properties for nonlinear dispersive partial differential equations in situations where the decay of solutions at infinity is borderline and scattering fails just barely.…
Given discrete time observations over a fixed time interval, we study a nonparametric Bayesian approach to estimation of the volatility coefficient of a stochastic differential equation. We postulate a histogram-type prior on the volatility…
The usage of a spot volatility estimate based on a volatility decomposition in a time-changed price-model according to the trading times is investigated. In this model clock-time volatility splits up into the product of tick-time volatility…
One of the most important features of financial time series data is volatility. There are often structural changes in volatility over time, and an accurate estimation of the volatility of financial time series requires careful…
We provide a comprehensive analysis of spot volatility inference in pure-jump semimartingales under two asymptotic settings: fixed-$k$, where each local window uses a fixed number of observations, and large-$k$, where this number grows with…
We consider two kinds of stochastic volatility models. Both kinds of models contain a stationary volatility process, the density of which, at a fixed instant in time, we aim to estimate. We discuss discrete time models where for instance a…
We present a new non-parametric statistic, called the weighed $\ell_2$ divergence, based on empirical distributions for sequential change detection. We start by constructing the weighed $\ell_2$ divergence as a fundamental building block…
Switched linear hyperbolic partial differential equations are considered in this paper. They model infinite dimensional systems of conservation laws and balance laws, which are potentially affected by a distributed source or sink term. The…